Brace yourselves, new Gallup poll

[newsguyatl]

and it shows a DEAD heat! 49/49 when adjusted for independant voters.

cnn will announce in a few.

[Captain Lance Bass]

1. yawnnn these MEANINGLESS polls make me sleepy

[newsguyatl]

7. yawn yourself

a GALLUP poll showing a dead heat is NEWS, namely because gallup is always so skewed to the right.

this translates in a probably a 5 point advantage for kerry.

[sonicx]

some people find them fun.

party pooper.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Maybe You Can Find A Board For The Somnolent

nt

[MidwestTransplant]

2. Wow

What is the headline number? What does it mean to adjust for independent voters? Is that independent swing toward one candidate?

[Democat]

3. What did the previous most recent Gallup show?

Anyone know?

[sonicx]

4. bush by 6

[Sean Reynolds]

5 actually.

51-46.

[sonicx]

13. yup, i edited it

:)

[Downtown Hound]

So Kerry gained 8 points in a few days huh?

Is Gallup claiming this as unstoppable momentum?

[sonicx]

16. sorry, it was 6. but yeah

"huge turnaround" ;)

[Zynx]

5. I think it was a six point Bush lead before.

[spooky3]

20. Didn't they pull this in 2000 too--big lead for * until JUST b-4 election?

[lancdem]

6. Man, I was expecting the worst

with your thread title. You got me! :)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. read this

"We have looked at it different ways and we may even present an alternative model that discounts voting history," Newport said in an interview Sunday as his organization wrapped up its final poll of the 2004 race. If there is evidence of a surge of support for Kerry, he said, "It will be picked up."

[Sean Reynolds]

33. So there is a surge?

Because it's quite obvious Kerry has gained!

[pabloseb]

8. What do you mean "adjusted for independents"?

In any case, I'll wait to see to believe :)

[newsguyatl]

24. ...

"Using voting behavior data from pervious elections, the Gallup organization attempted to estimate how the undecideds would vote Tuesday.

The result was a tie of 49 percent each for Bush and Kerry, with 1 percent for Nader and 1 percent for other candidates.

In the history of polling, Gallup has never come out with a tied race in its final pre-election estimate -- just one more footnote for the history books in a history-making campaign."

[alcuno]

9. Is this the model that has a greater weight given to Republicans?

49-49 is good news.

[merbex]

11. What is this?- their CYA poll?

Gallup is useless and I would say this even if they put Kerry up by 10

[atre]

32. Exactly

This is the CYA poll. They did one of these right before the 2000 elections as well.

[Chimpanzee]

12. YEAH RIGHT!!

Let me guess the sample:

Republican - 45%
Democrat - 30%
Independant - 25%

Am I close??

[newsguyatl]

17. lol, probably close

that's why a tie is such good news.

[NDFan]

14. Link

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/31/poll.sunday/index.html

[blackcat77]

26. That story says Bush is up 4 in Pennsylvania

Suuuuuure he is...

[Pushed To The Left]

15. Could be good news for Kerry

I heard a Republican spokesperson say on the radio that if the polls are tied on Election Day, Kerry wins because of the increase in voter registration! :bounce:

[w4rma]

18. Good. But, ignore the polls!!! Ignore them. Ignore all of them.

Analyzing them does not help elect Democrats. Analyzing the polls to death is a waste of time. It's a waste of time for everyone. Big media likes to talk about the polls because then they don't have to spend air time trying to defend the Republican Party's indefensable positions. Ignore the polls.

[Psst_Im_Not_Here]

19. Can anyone say

<<DRAMA>>>....<CHANGE THE CHANNEL>...<<DRAMA>>

It wouldn't have been any fun for them if it were any other way!

[Lilli]

22. Thankie

:)

[deadparrot]

23. Heh, it was just on...

It's still bullshit, but kinda funny.

[sonicx]

25. btw, this poll is still crap and has WILD partisan swings

i hate it.

[milkyway]

27. should say: "when adjusted for undecideds," as CNN just reported. nt

[DoYouEverWonder]

28. Keep in mind a lot of the Dems are out trick or treating

with their kids this weekend

All the fundies got in a huff because Halloween feel on a Sunday this year, so they are more likely to be home answering their phones.

[MountainMamma]

29. I've been wondering-

Who gets called on these polls anyway? Has anyone out there ever been called? I never have and I have three phone numbers. Are they constantly talking to the same people? So much for the polls!

[Malebolgia]

30. Polls are dumb.

The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.

[VirginiaDem]

31. This is great news, just like Zogby

We don't know how much faith to put in these tracking polls but being even in Gallup is like being 6-8 points up in real life.

[Technowitch]

34. Gallup has been one of the WORST polls in this race

They've consistently overpolled Repugs, skewing the results badly.

When corrected for this, Kerry almost always leads -- but do the Gallup people ever thing to ask themselves, "Y'know, this 40% Republican total is out of line with actual voting patterns"?

Nope. Far as I'm concerned, they're a Repug tool.

Them finally calling it even, to me, equals a massive Kerry landslide.