Remember that Honolulu Advertiser poll showing Bush leading in Hawaii?

[Awsi Dooger]

I found these Hawaii polls from 2000, about three weeks apart. One from ARG and another from the Advertiser:

HONOLULU ADVERTISER
A Honolulu Advertiser/Ch. 2 poll, conducted August 11-16, 2000 by Ward Research of Honolulu, surveyed 336 likely voters; margin of error +/- 5.3% (8/21).

General Election Matchup
Bush-Cheney 40%
Gore-Lieberman 35
Nader 4
Buchanan 1
Browne -
None of the Above 1
DK/Refused 20

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
An American Research Group poll, conducted September 5-11, 2000, surveyed 600 likely Hawaii voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 9/21).

General Election Matchup
Bush 29%
Gore 57
Nader 2
Others 1
Undec. 11

A remarkable 33 point shift in 25 days. Gore's convention smooch must have played especially well on the islands.

Admittedly, there is another recent poll showing Hawaii close, and ARG was high in 2000 (Gore won by 17+), but here is ARG's September 2004 poll from Hawaii:
                           
Sample size: 600 likely voters          
Sample dates: Sep 7-11            
Margin of error: Plus or minus 4 percentage points      
                                  
Bush 41
Kerry 51
Nader 4
Undecided 4

Republicans 25% of sample:Bush 88 Kerry 6 Nader 2 Undecided 4
Democrats 52% of sample: Kerry 78 Bush 16 Nader 4 Undecided 2
Independents 23% of sample: Bush 45 Kerry 41 Nader 5 Undecided 8

Yes, the 52-25 partisan sample in favor of Democrats is representative of Hawaii. Especially when the independents in this survey obviously were more GOP than typical. ARG consistently samples better than any other firm, in regard to state party ID tendencies.
                 

                 

[tech3149]

1. BIg question

How does the 52/25 sample compare to voter registration? I have no doubt there has been a swing towards bush* because of the education issue. The problem is that most locals understand that education is important, but don't know the details of NCLB. The locals will not have a strong showing at the polls unless there is no counter argument for improving the education system. If both sides are supporting improvements in the education system, there is no way Kerry can lose HI.
Having family on the islands gives a more on the ground perspective.

[Zorra]

2. Does Hawaii have electronic voting machines? That is the only way Bu$h

could take Hawaii.