Charlie Cook predicted 135 million turnout on MTP?

[alcuno]

I heard this on Hardball earlier. Is that really the number he said? If true, that's an unbelievable number.

[WCGreen]

1. In my model, I predict

132,860,646.....

I base this on the number of plus 18 years old people living in each state based on the 2003 Census stimates.

Then I applied a 62% TO Level. I figure this will take care of all the people ineligable to vote, those incarcerated, immigrants, etc....

[merbex]

2. If 135 million vote - KERRY LANDSLIDE - hands down !

end of discussion. Period.

Say goodbye George

[carpe diem]

3. exactly....

people don't register and turn out in those kind of numbers when they are satisfied with the status quo...people know we are on the wrong course and they want to change it...I just hope they do exit polling so if somethin' funny happens, we'll have an idea of what the votes really were...

[deadparrot]

4. If that's true, Kerry wins BIG.

Although I'm skeptical about it.

Still, if he's right, it's all about Kerry. People don't turn up in thse numbers to maintain the status quo.

[alcuno]

5. I'm beyond skeptical.

I'm pretty sure that under 110 million voted in 2000. Democrats were hoping for 118 million on the outside.

[featherman]

6. Peter Hart, DEM pollster, said over 120 is likely

How much more is hard to say

[DuaneBidoux]

7. Yea and what's really weird is he predicted a Bush win.