Capital Gang Electoral Vote predictions 10-31-04 program - transcript

[Hog lover]

Hope this is not a dupe or too long:

From Capital Gang 10-31-04

"SHIELDS: Welcome back. With three days until the election, the latest polls show the following. "Newsweek" gives President Bush a 6- point lead among likely voters over Senator Kerry, while ABC News/"Washington Post" shows a 1-point lead for President Bush and the American Research Group has the two candidates, Bush and Kerry, dead even.

Bob Novak, what's your presidential prediction for this coming Tuesday, November 2?

NOVAK: I have President Bush with 301 electoral votes, Kerry with 237. And I get there by giving Bush both Florida and Ohio. Up until recently, I thought Kerry was going to win Ohio, which would be a much closer race, only 281 electoral votes for Bush. You need 270 to win. Those are the two big states that Kerry must win both, in my opinion, to be elected, Florida and Ohio. And I don't think he's going to be able to do it.

SHIELDS: Margaret Carlson, your prediction?

CARLSON: I have Kerry 274, Bush 264.

SHIELDS: Oh!

CARLSON: And my switch from red to blue is Ohio. I think, with 237,000 jobs lost there, with John Snow going and saying those job losses are a myth, and with all the bad news on Iraq last week -- you know, the Iraqi forces shot execution-style, Allawi complaining about Bush, eight Marines killed today, those explosives. All the news is bad for Bush on Iraq. I think Ohio comes over.

SHIELDS: Kate O'Beirne?

O'BEIRNE: I give George Bush the election with 297 electoral votes...

SHIELDS: Oh!

O'BEIRNE: ... to John Kerry's 241. I think George Bush carries almost everything he carried in 2000, including Florida, maybe not New Hampshire, carries Ohio. But even without Ohio, without Ohio, I would have the president at 277. There are -- as long as he carries Florida, which he will do, I think, there are more scenarios for George Bush to win without Ohio than there are for John Kerry. John Kerry's going to need Ohio and much other states in the Midwest, and I think it's just much harder for John Kerry to get there.

SHIELDS: Al Hunt?

HUNT: I give John Kerry 279 electoral votes. He wins the popular vote by 2 points. And I'll tell you how I think he does it. He holds almost all of the blue states, and he sweeps the big state industrial belt, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio. And I think Florida is a replay of 2000, with almost the same outcome.

And Mark, let me tell you what I think the key is here. It is the turnout, and I think if there is a healthy increase in turnout from last time, a 5 percent turnout, so you got about 111 million people voting, Bush might win. At least, he might win the popular vote. But if, instead, turnout jumps 10 to 12 percent and there's 118 million to 119 million people voting, the biggest turnout since 1968, huge advantage Kerry. I think there's going to be a surge on Tuesday.

SHIELDS: Al, you make a good point, but not the conclusive point. I mean, the conclusive point is it's 281 for Kerry, 257 for Bush. And I'll tell you the wild card in this is Florida. And I'll tell you why John Kerry's going to carry Florida, is that the intensity factor -- there are 250,000 people that the Kerry campaign -- the Kerry campaign -- has on the -- in the field, on the street this coming Tuesday. It's three times as many as they've ever had before. The level of intensity -- and I think especially the level of intensity in a state like Florida...

And I would just add to it George Bush can't crack that magic 50. He is stuck at that 48 percent mark, and I just think that's the problem for him. He's the incumbent. It ain't going to break his way."


HERE ARE THE 2000 PREDICTIONS FROM CAPITAL GANG:

O'BEIRNE: 315 votes Bush / 223 votes Al Gore.

HUNT: I think Nader's going to go down to 3 or 4 percent by next Tuesday. I'm also assuming that Al Gore's going to pull off the Trifecta. He's going to win Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan. That's tough, but it's doable.

SHIELDS: Bush 241, 297 for Gore (in a major upset)

NOVAK: Bush 308, Gore 230

CARLSON: Gore 274, Bush 264



http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0410/30/cg.01.html



(sorry, don't know why link didn't work - edit: never mind, it did)

[teach1st]

1. Carlson has his bow tie on too tight

CARLSON: Gore 274, Bush 264 ???

[The Chronicler]

2. Margaret Carlson (nm)

[Warren DeMontague]

3. That's Margaret Carlson, Not Tucker "Dick" Carlson.

n/t

[waldnorm]

4. That's Margaret, Not Tucker . . .

Though Tucker does call this year's election for Kerry.

[Hog lover]

5. They gave 2000 predictions as a comparison - eom

Read earlier quote for 2004 prediction

[Hog lover]

6. sorry - dupe