Here's the USAToday/CNN/Gallup RV trend - You want to see this

[troublemaker]

They always headline the likely voter numbers and the registered voter numbers don't get reported much. Here are the RV figures from the last three instances of the USAToday/CNN/Gallup poll:

14-16 Kerry 46 Bush 49
22-24 Kerry 47 Bush 49
29-30 Kerry 48 Bush 46

If it looks like Bush is rolling off the table at the end, he is. This is NOT weighted by party, so this is a true big sample snap-shot of the nation, and this country does not want Bush. (We don't even know yet whether Republicans are over-sampled in this latest poll--they probably are.)

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

[gatorboy]

1. Heh! Well there's a poll we'll probably not see in the Yahoo headlines...

n/t

[troublemaker]

3. This was the set of data that put my mind at ease

The differing LV models drive me crazy, making everything apples and oranges, but every polls RV figures are just straight up polling.

All elections move in the last 48 hours. A true move in the electorate moves final votes, even if it doesn't show up in the adjusted LV figures.

If the people are moving we win, and this convinces me they are moving.

[WLKjr]

2. This is the trend comming out of the weekend

Looks like OBL just showing up wasn't good enough becuase it didn't pass the smell test