Full Gallup RV and LV figures out now (PA mystery result explained)

[troublemaker]

I am posting this because Gallup's LV lead for Bush surprised many here (including me). Now that the RVs are out we can see that the odd PZ figure is an artifact of Gallup's LV model, but most PA voters are indeed Kerry's.

RV's .. LV's .. LV's+
NATIONAL
Kerry 48 47 49
Bush 46 49 49
Nader 1 1
Undecided 3 -
Other - 1

RV's .. LV's

FLORIDA
Kerry 49 49
Bush 45 46

IOWA
Kerry 46 46
Bush 47 48

MINNESOTA
Kerry 51 52
Bush 43 44

OHIO
Kerry 51 50
Bush 44 46

PENSYLVANIA
Kerry 49 46
Bush 47 50

WISCONSIN
Kerry 46 44
Bush 49 52

[dennis4868]

1. SHIT!

Wisconsin does not look good and we need that state...GOD DAMN IT!

[MissouriTeacher]

2. Not if we get FL, PA, and OH.

Which, according to those numbers, we will.

[Zynx]

3. All other WI numbers have been breaking our way.

[dennis4868]

5. WHAT OTHER POLLS SHOW.....

Wisconsin is Kerry's?

[liberalpragmatist]

6. Zogby

Zogby has it Kerry 52 Bush 44

ARG has it Kerry 48 Bush 47

Mason-Dixon has it Kerry 48 Bush 46

You're right that Wisconsin may well be pivotal. If Florida goes to Bush and Ohio goes to Kerry, as I'm suspecting (although I'm still predicting we'll get both) then whoever wins Wisconsin wins the race.

Even so, I'm getting increasingly confident about our chances in Wisconsin. I'm more worried about Iowa and New Mexico, to be honest. Iowa seems to be trending back to Kerry, but New Mexico seems to have tilted pretty heavily to Bush. We can still win it, by my guess is that Bush will carry it on Tuesday night.

[troublemaker]

4. You take the good with the bad. If the other results are correct

Wisconsin's an after-thought. If the others are incorrect then there's no reason for Wisconsin to be correct.

It all evens out. I'm just glad the Gallup PA result was caused by their LV model, not reflecting the raw polling.

[iwantmycountryback]

8. It's funny about Gallup's WI poll

They show it Bush 52-44 among RV's, yet a Zogby poll shows Kerry winning 52-44. We won't know who will win there til Tuesday night.

[jefferson_dem]

7. Too odd. A six point swing (from +2 to -4) when we move to LV model.

The only logical explanation would be if there is a seriously large amount of first time voters in PA pledging support for Kerry. Either way, i'll trust RV over LV at this point.

[sonicx]

9. i have a better explanation for Gallup...

they suck