So, Who are these Ohio voters we're counting on Kerry to win over on Tues?

[Kathleen04]

I think this'd be an interesting topic to discuss.

--What are the important issues there? I know the loss of jobs issue has been big in Ohio and should give us an edge for Kerry.

--Who's going to turn out for us? I know we're counting on alot of new voters to go for Kerry, does anyone have a statistic on how many have been registered?

--Independents? Exit polling from 2000 shows an edge among Independents for Bush..what will make them go for us this time? Has Kerry played to the Independents effectively?

--Are they more socially conservative?

What are the factors that are going to cause Kerry to win Ohio on Tuesday?

[snowbear]

1. Ohio

"Who's going to turn out for us?"

Hopefully anyone who's experienced life under the Bush regime for the past four years. ~~ :shrug:

[Kathleen04]

3. Great answer

Here's to that on Tuesday. :toast:

[featherman]

2. from my brother...on the ground in OHIO...

Well connected and politically astute:

"...Ohio is going for Kerry....it may even go big for Kerry. The Kerry
people have set up a machine for this election like I have never seen
before. Every home in the state has been phoned at least once, every
registered Democrat and independent who is leaning toward Kerry has
been contacted to guarantee that they know where their precinct is and
have a ride there. Northeast OHio is completely mobilized and even the
Republican bedrock area that I live in has a lively campaign going on...

[Kathleen04]

4. Excellent

Great to hear about the organization that's happening on the ground.

[Lerkfish]

13. I live in Dayton and we have been phoned 3 times, a pleasant voice...

different each time, each time friendly and polite...the phone banks are doing an excellent job. I assure them I'm voting for Kerry and try to get them on to the next call quickly.

Admittedly, we're antagonistic Bush, but the ONE time a bush paid telemarketer called, my wife found she couldn't answer basic questions and was not very friendly...up until my wife layed into her. Then she was fairly worthless. Not sure how an uninformed paid telemarketer will actually help chimpboy much. In fact, she was even unclear who the VP was!

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

5. What going to win?

Turnout. Turnout. And more turnout.

Ohio has lost a quarter million manufacturing jobs and the state as a whole is in a fiscal crisis. Taxes and user fees are soaring, and even Republicans are pissed off at the Republican Governor and the Republican-controlled General Assembly.

Ohio isn't generally a socially conservative state. In the mid-eighties we had a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators, including the sainted Howard Metzenbaum -- who was more liberal than John Kerry and that's the damned truth.

Ohioans respond to bread and butter issues, and Kerry and Edwards have done a good job speaking to those issues.

[Kathleen04]

8. Very interesting

I didn't know there was a potential backlash against the local Republican government...good to know..

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

15. The Cincinnati Enquirer

possibly the most reliably Republican newspaper in the country (and they did endorse Bush again), endorsed all but one of the Democrats for the General Assembly. They're not happen with the idiots in Columbus.

[AngryOldDem]

6. Gay marriage amendment on the ballot

<<<What are the important issues there?>>>

That could energize the fundies, even though just about every politician in the state -- including Taft -- has come out against it. I'm not making any predictions whether it will pass.

Kerry has an excellent shot at winning Ohio. I live in Montgomery County (Dayton) which some have said may be the most important county in the state -- Dayton is heavily minority; the county has a lot of blue collar workers -- Kerry should win it handily.

[Lerkfish]

14. I also live in Dayton, and found Oakwood and Kettering lots of Kerry signs

so, those are two middle class to affluent areas. Unfortunately, though, I live in Wash Twp, which is high middle to affluent, and our Kerry signs are the abberration rather than the norm.

[liberal N proud]

7. I was out canvassing today and was in a low income housing area

One guy asked me, "Is my vote that important that you came knocking on my door"
I answered, Yes sir, your vote is that important.

It is all about getting these people out to vote. Get them to exercise their right!

[Zynx]

9. We lead among Indies in Ohio in EVERY poll.

All that varies are the Republican and Democrat numbers.

[briang5000]

10. Kerry and the Ohio Democratic Party have been on the ball ... Plus MoveOn

Today I was canvassing in the Cleveland area for MoveOnPac.
They've set up field offices all over the swing states to identify newly registered voters, people who missed the 2000 election and key demos that can help Kerry.

I've had great success making contacts and MoveOn has a system in place to get all of these contact to the polls in Ohio and the other battleground states.

Today, while I was canvassing I came across two K-E/2004 canvassers who were passing out tickets to tomorrow's final stop. A big rally in Cleveland Monday night with Kerry and Springsteen. One of these canvassers has moved from Houston to Cleveland to help with the campaign as an unpaid volunteer.

She said the local headquarters (Lakewood, OH) was extremely busy. I stopped by to see for myself (mind you a Sunday afternoon). The places was jammed - Standing room only -- with volunteers. Plus, another 30 volunteers on the sidewalk waiting to go in for the next shift. GOTV is going to work in Ohio. We are very "blue" in the Cleveland area and these dems will vote in droves!

MoveOnPac had a big rally for supporters on Saturday morning with Howard Dean.
Did you know that MoveOn has 500 volunteers nationwide who quit their jobs (or took leave) to move to battle ground states and run offices? The MoveOnPac GOTV effort will work.

Plus the many other GOTV efforts. People in Ohio get the message and they will show up.

Do not worry about the polls.

[Lady President]

11. Just my opinion

I'm a lifelong Ohioan so I'll throw in my two cents...

1. When I talk to people employment is their #1 concern. Over 240,000 people have lost their jobs here. In addition, the new jobs pay on the average $13,000 less than our old jobs. (The national average is $9000 less than old jobs.) Coupled with this is health care-- no job, underemployment means no health care benefits.

2. I know we lead by a large margin here, but the link I had with the exact figure isn't working any longer. I'd love to reminded of the numbers too. At the Columbus Kerry rally there were 10,000s of supporters under 25 who couldn't wait to vote.

3. I truly believe the independents will swing our way. If you don't like Bush by now, you won't in two days. I think the ads here from not only Kerry, but ACT too, have been wonderful. There is a series of ads aimed directly at independents each addressing one important issue (i.e. health care, outsourcing, education and paying for college)

4. Yes, in general, Ohioans are socially conservative. However, the NE area of the state is far more liberal than the South. And, in central Ohio we have one of largest gay populations in the country. (I think this group is well received, but I have always had a lot of gay friends and tend not to waste my time on intolerant people.) Edit to add: Because there is the anti-gay "perserve our families" amendment on the ballot, gay voters are very motivated to get to the polls.

[Time4Change]

12. Ohio

After months of debate I have convinced my best friend and his wife, both serious republicans, to vote for Kerry.

He's been leaning against Bush for months. The debates put him over the edge.

They are not alone. I don't think Ohio will be close

[newyawker99]

17. Hi Time4Change!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[WCGreen]

16. As someone who has been active in Dem Politics for over

25 years, I am really happy about all the optomism my fellow Ohioans are voicing on this board.

I know the Unions, Move On and Act are really pounding at turnout. (Although I must say, before a set back in health, I was involved with Move On and the list of voters they gave me was about 30% inacurate. For instance, they said Mrs. WC Green was a swing voter when in fact she has the exact same voting record as I do.)

But I feel that Ohio is slipping away from the nation as a whole and is turned into an copy of a Deep Southern state.

The GOP backlash aimed at Taft and the wacko's in the Ohio House could be a factor, but in the end, I think Ohio will squeeze down in there between Alabama and Mississippi.

I hope I am wrong but I just don't see it...

BTW, with population shifts over the past twenty years, a candidate has to carry Cuyahoga County by at least 150k that is about 61% in order to offset the GOP vote in the rest of the state. If that happens, I will gladly eat some crow.......

On Edit....

Far too many people who were once democrats here in Northeast Ohio from cities such as Lakewood, Euclid and Parma, have gotten use to voting with the republicans. Taft, Montgomery and Petro have all spanked their Cuyahoga County opponents in the last few years in these once reliably Blue cities....Plus the suburbs on the fringe are now all GOP territory. Tax cut, tort hating dependents on the GOP talking points....

On More Thing. It would be ironic that Ohio would go for Bush but that he would end up losing the EC anyway......