The electoral problem for Bush

[featherman]

How to get to 269/270 if Kerry wins OH, WI, MN, NH as is now likely IMO?

Answer: he cannot unless he pulls a miracle in sweeping:
FL, MO, AR, IA, NM, NV, AZ, WV, VA, NC and (!!!) HI

Not a good position to be in.

[DeminDC]

1. I don't know if it is even a relevant question

There are new polls out and a recent article that show that Kerry may take Florida, and Ohio may stay red. If that occurs, we're looking at the ElectoralVote.com scenario in which Bush would have to take Minnesota or Wisconsin and Iowa, which would bring Kerry to 270 assuming NH goes blue, which seems likely. In that case, Bush needs New Mexico as well. Notice how Hawaii is red on ElectoralVote.com as well. That may change on election day.

[T Bone]

2. And Big Dog is in AR swinging it to the Kerry column as we speak

Bush is every bit as FUCKED as he deserves to be.

[featherman]

3. The question is posed because I have long held that

it has ALWAYS been a harder road for Bush to get to 270 or more than it was for Kerry. My own model has Kerry taking HI, FL, IA, NM, NV which leaves Bush with only 222 and a very solid EV win for Kerry