What was the Dem/GOP spread in the last Gallup poll?

[Goldmund]

Thanks

[mistertrickster]

1. They had Bush up by five. They were one of the polls that were the

furthest off.

I submitted an article for the homepage on how bad the polls were last time, but the mods didn't run it this time . . .

Oh well, I should probably just post it.

The gist of it is that the polls were statistically good last time but only two out of 18 accurately predicted the winner (Gore). Two had Bush & Gore tied (which also was basically true). The other 14 had Bush up by one to six points.

So they were good at predicting the percentages within the margin of error, but they were BAD at predicting the winner. The fact that Bush and Gore were close shouldn't have made that much difference--at least half the polls should have shown Gore winning, and that didn't happen.

Bottom line--they were way off . . . A kid flipping a nickle would have done better.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I Don't Think Polling Was Intended To Pick A Winner In A Race

That Was Decided By 6/10 Of A Percent....

[mistertrickster]

3. Okay, but why did almost ALL the polls have Bush up? It was too

close to call, good and fine, but why did they call it for Bush then?

That's what I don't get.