No Incumbent President Has Been Reelected Without Winning The Independent

[DemocratSinceBirth]

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October 31, 2004

Kerry's Lead Among Independents Makes Bush's Situation Extremely Dire
By Alan Abramowitz

No Republican in the modern era has won a presidential election without carrying the independent vote. In the 2000 election, despite losing the national popular vote, George Bush led Al Gore by a narrow margin among independent voters. However, according to the final, supersized Gallup Poll, John Kerry now has an 8 point lead over George Bush among independent voters. In fact, Kerry led Bush among independents in all four Gallup polls this month--by an average of 6 points. This is one more piece of evidence that George Bush's situation is extremely dire.


Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 11:26 PM | link | Comments (0)

[aquart]

1. Awww. Tant pis.

[Catch22Dem]

2. link?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. yes

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/

[Catch22Dem]

4. thanks!

[ochazuke]

5. Has anyone noticed discontinuity between poll internals and bottom line?

The internals say things like independents are big for Kerry, youth and seniors too, with middle-agers about even. Yet the bottom line shows a tie or small Bush lead. What gives?

[Hello_Kitty]

8. 1950s telephone polling methods used on 2004 electorate

Not getting the cell phone users and also the fact that many people have caller ID, voice mail, and block outside numbers.

[shelley806]

6. I have never felt gleeful about someone's dire situation!

"George Bush's situation is extremely dire."

I'm so happy I'm thinking I should feel guilt!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Sounds Ominious....

Mr. President the situation is extremely dire...


ROTFLMFAO

[flaminbats]

9. think of the advantages Clinton had in 1992 which Kerry does not..

Perot took more votes away from Bush than from Clinton. BushI didn't have the advantage of pounding away on the corpses of 9/11 as shrub now has. And unlike Clinton, Kerry has the disadvantage of being a Senator from Massachusetts.

Despite these problems, the Kerry campaign has won independents on issues like national security, healthcare reform, and balancing the budget. Unlike the Dukakis or even Clinton campaigns, Kerry has united our base while placing the incumbent on the defensive.

[Senior citizen]

10. The chimp rejects independents outright.

If they aren't already pledged to vote for him, they can't even get in to his rallies. He doesn't want them. He's afraid they might ask questions, and he won't permit that.

Kerry, on the other hand, welcomes them. And he welcomes their questions. Now I wonder why they're voting for Kerry. Hmmmmmmmmm........