1/3 of florida has voted. Kerry 51 - Bush 43

[meow mix]

landslide on the way, just reported on drudge. wewt!

[high density]

1. We'll see

Kerry hasn't won it yet.

[npincus]

2. Don't see it on the Drudge site- where is this? radio?

1/3? can that be right? Lord, i hope so.

[meow mix]

5. yes radio..

i always spying =)

[riverwalker]

7. yes, on radio n/t

[blackcat77]

40. Click that USA Today link -- it's in the story. nt

[OldLeftieLawyer]

3. Oh, pleasepleasepleasepleasepleaseplease

This is a hell of a time to be an atheist, believe me.............

[riverwalker]

4. will be in USA Today no link yet n/t

[delhurgo]

6. Yeah, I heard that too.

Sounds very encouraging. Here's the link:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-10-31-poll-x_x.htm

"• In Florida, 30% of registered voters said they already had cast their ballots, using early voting sites and absentee ballots. They supported Kerry 51%-43%."

[riverwalker]

10. wow oh wow oh wow n/t

[demosincebirth]

29. 1573 polled and only 9 voted for Nader?

His political career is over.

[regnaD kciN]

38. What is also encouraging about that story...

...is that, while terrorism is the most important campaign issue nationwide, the economy was listed as the most important issue in Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

IMHO, there is no way any state where the economy is the most important factor is going for Bush. No way.

[LiberteToujours]

8. How do we know those numbers?

Are they based on telephone polls? I don't believe they start counting the votes early, and if they do they certainly shouldn't.

[Lex]

41. Yes, they are counting the early voters votes.

Iowa did so too, and Kerry is ahead there as well.

[Zynx]

9. If Kerry's lead is that big with a third voted, Florida is over.

You can't make up that sort of ground unless all the Republicans still have to vote and most of the Democrats have. That seems unlikely.

[aquart]

16. Unless the numbers disappear in the count, like last time.

I'm hoping for nothing from Florida.

But I'm praying for justice.

[Rex_Goodheart]

19. Calm down now. Don't get carried away...

That's a poll just like any other... subject to statistical sampling error.

[Randi_Listener]

11. Drudge = Douche

Nothing out of that fuckface's mouth is worth a squirt of shit on a shingle.

[npincus]

18. eeeeeeeeeew, gross!

[Randi_Listener]

21. It's true.

[npincus]

25. tee hee

[Bleacher Creature]

24. Thanks for that imagery.

Seriously, thanks. I can sleep well tonight.

[shadu]

12. meow mix is an awesome name!

Kerry looks strong. So far, so good.

[pabloseb]

13. Freaking Awesome! (if true)

Did he mention what's the source?

registration numbers? exit polls? regular polls? actual vote tally?

[npincus]

14. could this produce a 'domino effect'?

as in, other states (undecdeds and swingers) saying "hmmmmmm.... if them there FLoridians are going for Kerry, maybe it's not such a bad idea. What the heck!"


Hmm... any such thoughts about a possible bandwagon reaction?

[jackstraw45]

15. WRONG WRONG WRONG - It's NOT true...they are Gallup numbers!!!!!!!!!

It's based on the GALLUP SURVEY....not official voting.

see:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-10-31-poll-x_x.htm

at the bottom:

"In the surveys:

...

• In Florida, 30% of registered voters said they already had cast their ballots, using early voting sites and absentee ballots. They supported Kerry 51%-43%."

[pabloseb]

22. Thanks for the clarification

Still, very good news!
The sample size was slightly over 1500, so 30% is around 500 - a respectable number. That lead is outside the MoE.

[meow mix]

23. in the intrest of getting a good nights sleep, ill take it!

need some good news to calm nerves =)

[Zynx]

26. Ah, junk then. Subset sampling is worthless.

MOE is generally huge.

[pabloseb]

32. Not in this case

It's a 500 people subsample. MoE is about 5%.

[The Magistrate]

36. According To This, Sir, Up In Breaking News

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=947098&mesg_id=947098&page=

The figures are probably pretty close to accurate. Roughly a sixth of the total registered voters in the state have already cast ballots by early voting or absentee; that would be over a quarter of the number of voters expected in an election that saw a sixty-five percent turn-out.

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[PretzelWarrior]

17. nooooooooooo!!!!!!!!! FLORIDA DEMS! we NEED you...

show up. rain or shine. show up. bring water. bring snacks. just show up all day with lines around the block.

wait in line and get your vote counted. a few hours is nothing when compared with an eternity of four years under this slave maker.

[npincus]

20. Great weather forecast for Florida on Nov. 2

[eleny]

28. If the results get keyed into BBV machines - we still need massive numbers

So everyone needs to get out and vote!

[JohnnyCougar]

27. wow

I find it hard to believe that is accurate. I hope so...I really really hope so. That just seems like an incredibly high number of people already voting. If it's true, this is awesome!

I'm also worried that Jeb will mess with the final tally. Please, someone reassure me!:scared:

[meow mix]

30. said it accounted for 2 million peeps

i think.. seems like a lot ya =)

[Gloria]

31. Sounds like the early vote margin in Iowa, doesn't it??

eom

[ScotTissue]

33. My Miami sister voted early...and wrongly

I learned today that my sister and her Repigican husband voted early for Bush. She said Rudy Giuliani campaign ads made her do it.

Sigh. I do still love her, I do still love her.

[ThoughtCriminal]

34. Does that mean 6% "other"

Is Pat Buchanan still getting votes?

[jezebel]

35. Here's the USA TODAY article he is quoting.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-10-31-poll-x_x.htm

• In Florida, 30% of registered voters said they already had cast their ballots, using early voting sites and absentee ballots. They supported Kerry 51%-43%

[Indiana_Dem]

37. I don't quite understand.....

what if it's mostly Dems who are early voting but the Repubs wait until election day....then the score could even up, couldn't it? I mean the early voting looks good but not if only Dems are voting and Repubs aren't. I wouldn't get my hopes up yet--wait and see. It sure sounds good. Maybe we've got a jumpstart in the race. Am I missing something? Point it out to me. Thanks.

[jezebel]

39. Absolutely, Dems canNOT get complacent, they have to get out in massive #s

election day as well. A big Bush day would more than offset what USA Today is saying. And that is even if that sampling in their poll is truly representative.

[Chescher]

42. C'mon DEMS in ALL STATES... get EVERYONE out there VOTING

I'm in Colorado ... thinking about offering to drive people to polls if the weather is crappy (like now). Or even if it's not... I just want to make sure everyone is out there voting, too.

[pabloseb]

44. Yes and no

Indeed, it could be that dems are voting early in higher numbers. But that would indicate a higher interest in the election, indicating that dems will do very well in the final turnout.

[Robbie67]

43. Where is the 5.4% going?

Kerry 51, Bush 43, Nader .6

I wish they'd include more info. I'd love to see if Badnarik was getting those other votes.

[pabloseb]

45. May be non-respondents? n/t

[jezebel]

46. Mickey Mouse? It is Florida ;) NT

[ThoughtCriminal]

48. They already voted but were undecided on who they voted for?

Now that's dedication.

[billie_]

47. Miami here, my son & i voted today

wait was 3 hours, met a lot of great people, and they ratio of Kerry/Bush supporters were way in our favor...it rained, and we all stayed put & in good spirits, although, a woman with a Bush button asked the girl behind me to hold her place in line and ended up butting ahead, voting like an hour before we did and had the nerve to come by as she was leaving to say "thank you" to the girl who had held her place in line.....ARRRRGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!


ANYWAY, the positives, met a LOT of great people, my son voted for the 1st time...and we were way, way out numbering the Bushies...

husband voted absentee...

so, 3 Kerry votes from this house.

I have been volunterring for move on and my husband has as well....we are doing our part and all poll wayching on Tuesday....

God, i can use a rest, seems like this Bush nightmare has been never ending...we have been active since before the 2000 debacle....anyway, i am babbling....Come On Kerry/Edwards!

[shawmut]

49. great news

go Florida! go Kerry! :bounce:

[wtmusic]

50. "It seems like a scary Halloween for George Bush"

hey dubya...BOO!! :scared:

[Awsi Dooger]

51. I would estimate 6.7 million votes in Florida this year

Tonight the Florida online papers are reporting more than 2 million votes cast in early voting, so 30-33% sounds accurate.

Early numbers are high in the Dem strongholds of Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. If polling is primarily in those counties, the 51-43 is undoubtedly high.

I just don't have much faith in state polls, or early exit polls without knowing if the sample is representative.

[DeepModem Mom]

52. kick

[in_cog_ni_to]

53. That looks like Iowa's early voting returns!

WooHoo! I hope the trend continues! :bounce: