Gallup: K 63% - B 34% among voters aged 18-24

[pabloseb]

The Gallup daily briefing analyzes the young vote. They looked at 4 hypothesis: 1) that interest among young voters is very high, 2)that they will vote in higher numbers, 3) that they favor Kerry, 4) that they're undersampled because of the cell-phone factor.

Their conclusions: 1) yes, interest is extremely high amoung the youngs, and it grew more than any other age groups; 2) there are more likely voters in this age range compared to 2000, but the increase is similar in other age groups, 3) among those aged 24 or less, Kerry is kicking some ass: 63 to 34, 4) they dismiss the cell phone theory: they say less than 3 percent of people have only cell phones, and even that small percentage is not overhelmingly young.

You can watch the video at www.gallup.com.

[cubsfan forever]

1. Kick! n/t

Professor 2

[npincus]

2. so they'd better get their asses to the polls!

[Lex]

3. All week long I drove by the early voting place in my town

and all week long, the lines were long and those in line were MOSTLY 18 to 25, I'd say.

So that's a good sign for turnout!

This age group went to see Farenheit 9/11 probably more than any other, too (just a guess).

[pabloseb]

4. Good point about F 9/11

Also Mosh may have an impact.

[requiem99]

5. Tons of that 18-24 number are NEW VOTERS.

So of new regs, we've got a commanding lead. GOTV!!

[Lex]

8. That means they weren't counted by pollsters as LIKELY VOTERS

even if the pollsters DID get them on the phone somehow.

[splat]

6. blind spot

they dismiss the cell phone theory: they say less than 3 percent of people have only cell phones, and even that small percentage is not overhelmingly young.

Young people aren't home much to answer landlines even if they have them. (If they still live with mom and dad, they may not be the one to answer the landline, either.)

[Peanut Gallery]

7. three percent seems low

Whenever I'm walking around downtown it seems like every other person I see is talking on a cellphone. I notice a lot of young people with them too. Gen Y and younger have grown up with all of the cool technology - they live and breathe it.

[pabloseb]

9. The report is very careful about it

It says that there is no evidence to support that cell phone users distort the polls, but there's no evidence to the contrary either. They don't say it explicitly, but they suggest that they'll do some exit polling about this and try to garner information to be used in future polls.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Agree, Agree, MUCH LOWER, Completely Agree

I'll be thrilled if Kerry's edge on #3 is half that much, 12%.

Cell phone users is the most useless non-factor in this election. Whenever a topic comes up, it's like everyone wants to give Kerry an additional 5% based on cell phones alone. A wash is completely accurate.

The pathetic aspect: when Kerry wins I'm sure there will be dozens of threads attributing it to cell phone users, and not underestimated minority strength or late undecideds to the challenger.

[DeepModem Mom]

11. Finally! A poll that does not group Gen Y in with Gen X --

First, please, Gen Xers who always slam me when I post about differences between Gen X and Gen Y, according to studies I have read -- I do not indict all of Gen X. Many among Gen X, here at DU, and in my own family have worked for the side of right, with great dedication and effectiveness. But it is a more conservative generation, I believe, than Gen Y, born 1980 and after, the new voters showing up in this poll. I believe this is more than fear of a military draft. These kids did not grow up under Reagan; many of their parents retain some Sixties idealism. I am a parent of one of these kids, I know a good number of them very well -- and I have great hope for them!

[DemocracyInaction]

12. The pigs are going to be targeting these kids unbelievably at the polls

I hope they are informed about standing their ground, challenging, etc. I hope the DNC has a real flood of lawyers where the young will be voting in high numbers. The kids can save this country if they can fight off the animals who have always tried to supress voting.

[baltodemvet]

13. Fantastic!!

I'm--well, shall we say--'experienced'? I'm so glad this new generation--whatever you want to call it--gets it! Gives me hope for the future.

[jefferson_dem]

14. Now we just gotta get those younguns to the polls! Cell phones matter.

They better think again about the cell phone factor. Shit, "only" 3% amounts to several million voters. Tell me that couldn't shift the tectonic electoal plates. I'm thinking Gallup is just trying to rationalize their soon-to-be-out-of-date methodology.