THERE WILL BE NO LANDSLIDE!!!!

[Walt Starr]

Please remember folks, a decisive victory is NOT a landslide. Landslide means more than 60% of the electoral votes.

To get a landslide this year means one of the candidates must get 323 or more electoral votes. I simply do not see that happening.

300 or more electoral votes would be a decisive victory.

[Was_Immer]

1. 271 will be good enough to end this nightmare! n/t

[Walt Starr]

2. 270 is enough for me. n/t

[mohinoaklawnillinois]

4. Yeah, the magic number is 270.

Let's go get those Bush bastards.....

[KingChicken]

3. I see it as decisive, its all good.

Landslide when compared to how evenly the emotions are split, so decisive victory looks like a big shift. Looks good!

[RafterMan]

5. LANDSLIDE!

Landslide, I tell you.

I will be mocking you tomorrow.

[Bluzmann57]

6. If Kerry gets 50%

and bush gets 49%, then Kerry wins. That is the most important thing. Landslide or not, we must get Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts elected. For the good of not only the USA, but the world.
on edit-Yeah I know Gore won the popular vote in 2000, so let's go get Kerry the electoral votes he needs as well.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

7. Who decided on that definition of a landslide?

[bowens43]

8. You get to define landslide????

Why's that?

You seem to be working to ensure that your prediction of a close race becomes reality.

[Walt Starr]

13. It's not my prediction. It's a reality

It's not my definition, it's how the media has defined landslide for decades.

Clinton never had a landslide.

Bush I had a landslide. Reagan had a landslide.

I doubt we'll ever see another landslide in our lifetimes unless video of one of the candidates raping a child should surface.

That's the state this nation is in now.

[Rowdyboy]

18. Walt, you say Bush I had a landslide...And so did the media back in 1988..

but he won with only 53-47% of the vote. It pissed me off at the time and it still does. For Bush I the media was happy to "redefine" the whole concept of landslide. Yet when Clinton beat Dole by the EXACT same number of points (49%-43%) the word "landslide" was never uttered.

It all depends on who's doing the commentary.

That said, I certainly don't expect a landslide. To me, 51% would be flawless.

[DemPopulist]

20. Clinton won landslides

Under the definition you posted up there (60% + of the electoral vote):

1992 - 370/68.77% of the Electoral College

1996 - 379/70.45%

In fact, I remember picking up a copy of USA Today the day after the election in '92, with a picture of Bill and a big headline that said LANDSLIDE. :)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. How Did Bush 1 Have A Landslide And Not Clinton...

I won't debate 92 but having nearly four hundred Electoral Votes is a Electoral College landslide...


In 88 the reusults were thus:

Bush 54%


Dukakis 46%


In 96 the results were thus:

Clinton 49%

Dole 41%

Pearot 8%

btw- I agree with your main point.... 04 won't be a landslide election....

[phish420]

49. OOOHHHH...Since the MEDIA says so...

...it MUST be true...how STUPID of me!!

[truthisfreedom]

9. we're all in this together. Kerry wins, we're all happy!

and we live happily ever after. and maybe bushco has some people in prison after a couple of years.

[libbygurl]

10. Whatever! A petty point made here. KERRY WILL WIN!!!!

[nolabels]

11. Yes, "Whatever it takes!"

What U.S. presidents won in the biggest landslides?
01-Jun-1984

Dear Cecil:

Ronald Reagan was elected by what was referred to at the time as an "avalanche." However, given the declining percentage of the population that bothers to vote nowadays, I suspect Mr. Reagan's victory really isn't all that impressive. What was the percentage of eligible voters who supported him? Was it really such a landslide? How does the percentage compare with that of other presidents? Did Reagan even make it into the top ten? --Curious in Sunland, California

Dear Curious:

If Reagan's 1980 victory was an avalanche, I'm Wilt Chamberlain. Ron got 50.7 percent of the popular vote, which is nothing compared to the landslide champs: LBJ in 1964 (61.0 percent), FDR in 1936 (60.8 percent), and Nixon in 1972 (60.7 percent).
(snip)
http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a1_135.html

[unfrigginreal]

12. My head says Kerry w/301 EVs but I'm still hoping for a

KERRY LANDSLIDE

[Walt Starr]

15. That's about where I am, decisive, but no landslide.

:D

[RafterMan]

16. Gore states plus

Ohio, Florida and New Hampshire is already 311. And that's not even stretching it.

[Walt Starr]

32. We may lose a Gore state or two

But I still think we will win.

All I want is not repeat of 2000.

[kayell]

33. The only Gore state I see us "losing" is FL, and the same way as 2000

[Pacifist Patriot]

56. NOOoooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!

Florida voter chiming in to beg and plead with all that cares about humanity....NOOOoooo.. ;-)

It's bad enough we've been double-Bushwhacked for four years. Not another 8. LOL!

[American liberal]

63. thanks for the edjymication, Walt. I've been calling it a landslide and

had no idea what I was talking about.

[DemBones DemBones]

14. OK, KERRY IN A DECISIVE VICTORY!!!

Will that do? ;-)

[cubsfan forever]

42. Hear, Hear! GOTV! n/t

Professor 2

[Birthmark]

17. Agreed.

But if America insists on a landslide, then who are we two to stand in the way? :)

[DemNoir]

19. Oh alright no landslide

Just a tectonic shift!

[terrya]

21. I'll settle for 270.

No...there won't be a landslide. I'd settle for just enough to put Kerry over the top.

[melody]

22. I think it's going to be

I listen to my intuition in these things...the same intuition that told me Kerry was still going to win following the RNC putative Bush "bump"...and I honestly, strongly feel it's going to be a landslide.

In 2000, I knew Bush was going to take office (even though he didn't win). I also knew Clinton was going to win both times. So I'm more than hopeful we'll see a routing on Tuesday.

[Eurobabe]

23. landslide means kerry wins even by one vote

this asshole needs to go.

[arwalden]

24. Whether It's A Technical Landslide OrA Squeaker...I'll Call It A Landslide

just to irritate the Repukes and the Freakers. Don't forget to include a liberal dose of telling them to "Get Over It!" and calling them a "Sore Loser!"

Details, schmetails! Who cares about facts or accuracy in labels... as long as we can rub their noses in it, I'll be happy.

-- Allen

[npincus]

25. We need a decisive victory as a repudiation of the horrible Chimp policies

and to send a message to the world that this country is still good and our people aren't crazy

[0007]

26. Let's keep our wits and not let down our guard

 Vote as if your life depended on it, because it does.

Call 866 687-8683
If Poll Workers refuse you to vote for any reason
If there is a late opening or early closing of a polling place.
If your polling place runs out of ballots or has an incorrect ballot
If you experience poll worker insensitivity or discrimination in the voting process

The civil rights community have set up a toll-free Election Day hotline. This line is
staffed now and, in addition to logging your complaint, the civil rights organizations have law
students and attorneys who can provide assistance on Election Day.

the hotline number is
866 687-8683
202 457-0473 fax

When you call the hotline, be prepared to give your name, telephone number, and note as many
details as possible, including the names of the people who are involved.

[TexasSissy]

28. I agree! I'm sick of hearing meaningless "landslide" projections by

people who aren't following the data or history. And it doesn't matter, anyway! A WIN is a WIN!

I really think this thing is doable. I really do. It's still possible, unfortunately, that AWOL could pull it off. But it's beginning to seem less and less likely.

Yeeeeeee-ha! Let's ride AWOL all the way back to Crawford!

[RafterMan]

30. You'll eat those words

The data and history will speak.

[TexasSissy]

35. Data and history HAVE spoken. Where do you think another 20%

would come from? They'd have to come from Bush's core supporters turning on him. Ain't gonna happen. They are as much FOR him as we are AGAINST him.

Few undecideds. Some new registrations (but they are incl. in polls). Cell phone users w/o land lines - would add maybe 1%? Naderites - 1%. There's no one left.

[fishwax]

52. A win is a win ... and a win is a landslide

I could be wrong, but I get the sense that a lot of people who post "landslide" aren't necessarily saying kerry will win 60% (or any other arbitrary number) of the popular or electora vote, but rather that he will win in such manner that bush shenanigans won't be enough to steal it again.

To win by enough to cover the "margin of theft," JK almost has to win by a landslide. ;)

270 Evs will be plenty for me.

[LittleClarkie]

29. In my bet with three Repubs

If Kerry wins the percentage of the popular vote by 10 percentage points, we've defined that as a landslide.

Hence, my prediction of Kerry 54% and Bush 43%.

I don't care though. I want decisive. I just want a clear winner that no number of lawsuits can change.

[H2O Man]

31. Good point.

All I want is a clear-cut victory, where the majority of the republican party recognizes on Wednesday morning that Kerry has won. And I am 100% confident that we are going to get that type of victory.

[DrFunkenstein]

34. Kerry Will Get 99.9992% of the Vote

The rest will have drukenly voted for Bush by mistake. That's my prediction.

[lakeguy]

36. poo-poo on you...

kerry landslide...323+:evilgrin:

[Guaranteed]

37. If Fox News is right and Kerry has a 6.25% lead in 12 BG states,

it's gonna be a landslide however you define it.

[belle]

38. The headline I keep visualizing: "KERRY WINS BY COMFORTABLE MARGIN"

300 or so would be fine with me.

[Cush]

39. all I want is 270

[donheld]

40. ALL of you

Put your crystal balls away, hang up on your psychic friends, and keep working till it's done. I think we'll all take what we can get.

[dr.strangelove]

41. WHO GIVES A FUCK - AS LONG AS KERRY WINS

I really don't care if Kerry wins with 270 EVs, 300 EVs or more. As long as he wins.

he electoral math is fun, but what is the big deal about a landslide. We all know that the country is closely divided on major issues. Its what makes all this political blabbering fun. We don't live in a country where there is a strong majority on most major issues. We are a divided country.

What we are though is a constitutional republic with a plan to elect our President through an electoral college. Kerry will win more than 270 EVs, but I don't care how many more.

After he wins we can all get back to fighting about issues instead of working so hard to get bush out.
We all have to agree for one more day, then we vote out the asshole. After we win on Tuesday, we can go back to fighting about issues.

For now, a win is a win.

[Pacifist Patriot]

54. I give a fuck

I agree a win is a win, but 271 electoral votes are going to result in weeks or months of legal challenges. A decisive victory could help prevent a repeat of post-election day 2000 crap. It would also help shut up some of my more obnoxious relatives over the Thanksgiving table.

Ask Gore if a win is a win.

[dr.strangelove]

61. I see your point

about the personal issues at the dinner table. I'd like that too.
As for the legal fighting, its going to happen no matter what. No matter how hard we try, bush is going to win ~230-250 evs.
Even if we win all the real battlegrounds (this doesn't count states like Arkansas and NJ which I don't believe are even close, we get NJ and bushie gets clinton country), we still barely top 300. I don't think we will get a "decisive" victory this year. Not enough to stop rove's machine from fighting in court.

After we win, we need to spend the next four years doing what Clinton did, get support from the middle of both parties and "unite" not divide the country. Then Kerry will win 370+ EVs in 2008 and have a "mandate" from the people.

This year, its all about winning. I don;t think a mandate, as such, is possible. We'll get that when we take the senate in the midterms and when we take the house in 2008 with the Kerry landslide.

Thats a little too much to dream for right now, so I'll go back to my original position. I don;t give a fuck by how much Kerry wins, just as long as he wins.

[rocktivity]

43. VISUALIZE WINNING--And that's an order!

http://www.needlenose.com/win04/vote2.htm

:headbang:
rocknation

[hippiegranny]

44. Boooosh has a solid 35%

a LANDSLIDE for Kerry is possible. Mabe not probable, given the mush-for-brains mentality of much of the country, but it is possible.

[dolstein]

45. Actually, a landslide is 55% or more of the popular vote

At least that's what I was taught in political science class. Yes, you can also have an electoral vote landslide, but that tells you far less about the depth of popular support.

Here's a definition from Wesbter's 1913 dictionary (see item 3):

Land´slide`
n. 1. The slipping down of a mass of land from a mountain, hill, etc.
2. The land which slips down.
3. An election victory in which the winning candidate receives a substantial majority of the votes, usually meaning at least ten per cent more than any opposing candidate.
4. Any overwhelming victory.

[VOX]

46. How about "Kerry Beats the Hell Out Of * ?"

A solid trouncing will suffice nicely! :kick:

[kaitykaity]

47. What-EVER.

What-EVER.

[phish420]

48. And where exactly is this definition?!?

"Landslide" is very subjective. In an election where almost everyone thinks it is virtually tied, someone getting 300+ EVs IS a landslide...I dont care what your definition is, which I would love your source.

[dolstein]

55. Here's a defintion

Here's a definition from Wesbter's 1913 dictionary (see item 3):

Land´slide`
n. 1. The slipping down of a mass of land from a mountain, hill, etc.
2. The land which slips down.
3. An election victory in which the winning candidate receives a substantial majority of the votes, usually meaning at least ten per cent more than any opposing candidate.
4. Any overwhelming victory.


FYI, when I majored in political science in college, I was taught that a landslide election is one in which a candidate gets at least 55% of the vote. This corresponds closely to definition #3.

[Dr Fate]

50. We will use the words "landslide" and "mandate" anyway.

n/t

[grace0418]

51. Prof. Sam Wang would beg to differ...

according to this http://election.princeton.edu/ his prediction IS a landslide:

Electoral prediction with undecideds and turnout: Kerry 323 EV, Bush 215 EV

And, damn I hope he's right.

[Pacifist Patriot]

53. So a month or so ago I dreamed Kerry got 361...

What would that statistically be? A huge can of whoopass?

[smbolisnch]

57. Decisive works for me! nt

[Generator]

58. Probably not, but as my Grandmother always said, you never know

Maybe the big G upstairs will do it just to mess with you.

Hopefully you will be happy to eat crow.

[michigandem2]

59. don't get all technical on us okay???

A big win..meaning a large decisive win to us compared to last time is a LANDSLIDE...it will be a big decisive win we can rub in W's face...because he acted like he got a huge mandate...

[Padraig18]

60. I'll be happy as a pig in sh*t with 271, thank you!

The end of our long, national nightmare is in sight!

:dem:

[Tactical Progressive]

62. If Kerry wins by more that 537 votes nationwide

then Democrats have a mandate to do whatever they want.

Double tax rates on the wealthy.

Nationalize industries.

Outlaw guns and knives.

Mandate gay marriage for everyone, in the Constitution.


Haven't you been paying attention to the new rules of electoral politics, USA?