From slate.com

[jerryster]

Analysis Nov. 1, 1:00 a.m. ET: Florida moves to Kerry, giving him 299 electoral votes. But his lead is shakier than it looks. Both Florida and Ohio are on a knife's edge. We also think Gallup has exposed Wisconsin as a Tier 2 state, winnable for Bush with the right turnout. Kerry's consolation is that both Iowa and New Mexico now look winnable for him, and as a package, they would negate the loss of Wisconsin or Minnesota. Kerry can now afford to lose any of the following combinations: 1) Florida, Iowa, and New Mexico; 2) Florida, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire; 3) Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire; 4) Ohio and Pennsylvania; or 5) Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. The good news for Republicans is that even if Kerry wins all the other states within his reach, he can't survive the loss of Ohio and Florida.


Link: www.slate.com/id/2108751/

[truthisfreedom]

1. Kerry will NEVER lose Minnesota.

you can count on that. we're DFL all the way. Democratic Farmer Labor.

and we vote.

[July]

2. How do they come to the last conclusion?

If Kerry gets the Gore states (that includes IA, NM, WI, MN), he has 260 EVs. With NH, which looks to be going Kerry, he's got 264. So he would need SIX votes to win -- which he could get from less populous states than OH or FLA -- AR, for example, or NV plus WV, for another. I'm not saying it would be easy, but it's possible, since some of those are weak for Bush.