61%. . .

[stellanoir]

Yesterday I had to work in N.H. and drove past Manchester around the time the Kerry rally was occuring.

For no rational reason whatsoever, the figure 61% (of the popular vote) popped into my cranium. It may be wishful thinking but I've had that number flashing across my mind's eye ever since. I just thought I'd post it for posterity's sake.

Logic, the polls, and the BBV's suggest that this figure is far beyond what is reasonably possible.

The cell phone users and groundswell of new registrants suggest that anything is possible.

Like many, I've feared another squeaker, legal disputes, a contested outcome, and another presidential selection with no mandate from the people.

I've no clue what percentage qualifies as a "landslide." But I really think Kerry garnering 61% of the vote would help to heal some of the awful divisiveness we've experienced for the last four years.

Hey, I can dream can't I. . . ?

[kick-ass-bob]

1. no one ever gets 61%

an electoral landslide will happen if Kerry gets 52-53%...

[stellanoir]

2. Just for the heck of it

I just did a search on the results from the last two landslides in recent decades. . .

'72 McGovern 37.5%
Nixon 60.7%

'84 Mondale 40.8 %
Reagan 58.8 %

So you're right. No 61 % but darn close !

I told you I was dreaming.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. 1936- FDR 60.6

http://presidentelect.org/e1936.html

[stellanoir]

4. wow

closer still !!!

[Sean Reynolds]

12. But I think we can all admit Kerry is no Roosevelt! ;-)

That was the biggest electoral landslide win (he only lost Maine and Vermont).

[elperromagico]

15. LBJ got 61.05% in 1964.

Biggest popular vote victory in American history.

[ScreamingMeemie]

5. Funny that you should mention this.

I was reading the newspaper and it said that 60% of those polled think we should abolish the electoral college. I take those people to be former Gore supporters and I have yet to hear of a Gore person voting for Bush in my personal experience. I also look at the internet polls that tend to be in that range. I said to MrG it would be a hoot if Kerry took it by 55-65%, thinking of those cell phone users and very likely (but deemed unlikely) 18-25 years olds. :bounce:

[ShaneGR]

6. The very top figure we can attain, with turnout about 125 million is....

54%....

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. We will be lucky to break 50

My top number for Kerry is 51. We will be lucky to even break 50, meaning Kerry may not even be a majority president.

[neoSattva]

8. Go for It! ~ 61% EV?

I'm with you - On another thread there's a prediction of 327 ev for Kerry. If my math is right that is exactly 61%. Coincidence? - I think not!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x949181

Pendulum swings to Kerry landslide
Malcolm Mackerras
November 01, 2004
MY key prediction in an article published in February this year was this: "On Monday, December 20, 2004, the Electoral College will meet and 327 votes will be cast for John Kerry and 211 for George W. Bush."

The article went on to predict that the 327 votes for Kerry would be made up as follows:

"First, he will win 260 votes by carrying every state carried by Al Gore in 2000. Second, he will win 27 votes in Florida, four in New Hampshire, 11 in Missouri, 20 in Ohio and five in Nevada."

Subject to a quite minor revision, that remains my forecast.

I am referring to a diagram known as the Mackerras US Pendulum which accompanied that article and appears again today.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/...
****************************************************************
Malcom MacKerras success rate is almost 100 % correct

[stellanoir]

10. I may still be dreaming but

I'm still seeing it and loving it. Thanks for the affirmation.

[neoSattva]

11. You Bet -

Whatever I can do for you.

[quaoar]

9. 61 percent ?

Nah.

LBJ drew that much in 1964. No one else has reached that in the last century.

[Octafish]

13. History Happens.

I'm wagering there are more smart people than Bush supporters.

[neoSattva]

14. Either a Heart or a Brain

One or the other and you can't possibly vote for *,
If you have both, so much the better.

[iwantmycountryback]

16. That's pretty doutbtful

I think Kerry could get 52 percent but the only time anywhere around 60 percent happens is in re-election landslides.

[Algorem]

17. Bush 38%.