what's up in Hawaii? We'll win it but narrowly, in 2000 we won by 18%

[Hamlette]

Some other states are showing swings of 6-7%. right now Hawaii is projected for Kerry by only 1% but in 2000 it was Bush 37% Gore 55%.

Is it bad polling or somthing else?

[faithfulcitizen]

1. was wondering the same thing...

what happened to them. Do they just want attention by making us wait all night for them to vote? ;)

[pmbryant]

2. I suspect bad polling

Remember, some polls showed Gore only up 1 in California right before the 2000 election. Gore won by 12 or so.

I used to live in Honolulu and I recall that the newspapers there are rather right-leaning. They probably have every incentive to oversample Bush's support there.

But best not to take anything for granted.

--Peter

[Zero Gravitas]

3. Karl Rove

They tried this bullshit last year. They pretend that they have the momentum by pretending that safe Dem states are "in play". They had Bush spend time in California at the end of the campaign last time for instance.

[barbaraann]

4. Steady drumbeat of Christian and rightwing radio stations

http://www.hawaiiradiotv.com/OahuRadio.html

[MikeG]

5. Hawaii is safe. Don't believe the Rove spin.

And Cheney wanted some sun.

[Raster]

8. Mahalo!

[flowomo]

6. a DU poster from Hawaii said several weeks ago....

that Hawaii was closer this time because of the education issue. She suggested the Repub gains were real.... and that governor, Linda Lingle, a Republican.... had been effective in pushing the GOP agenda. I think we'll win Hawaii... but these are the points the poster made.

[BUSHOUT]

7. Demographics and attitudes can change...

Maybe they've had a really good 4 years economically.

I also heard that more old white people are moving there.

I have no doubt it will break to Kerry.

[yellowcanine]

9. Hawaii is the ultimate sunbelt move - lots of wealthy retirees moving

there and changing the demographics in favor of pubs. And let's face it, the Democrats there have become complacent and have not worked hard enough at good governance.

[apnu]

15. yup, HI gets ignored all the time and they are getting pretty mad about it

I was talking to a friend who lives there, and he said that people are pretty demoralized about their vote "not mattering" to the election. And since we take HI for granted, any lip-service to them from the GOP at least makes them feel like they are involved in the political process.

If we lose Hawaii as a "safe state" we have only ourselves to blame.

[GreenPartyVoter]

10. Didn't Hawaii have a strong showing for Kucinich in the primaries? Is

the military vote there so big that it cancels out all those truly progressive folks?

[helpisontheway]

11. Heard they have a Republican governor or something

and that that might have something to do with it.

[Nag Champa]

12. Could it be the military vote?

I lived their for about 3 years and remember the division between the average Hawaiian and the military people. Could it be that more military families will be voting for their Codpiece-in-Charge? Just an idea... any locals out there got a take on where these imported Rep votes are coming from?

[fugop]

14. Probably not military

Most military vote absentee out of their home state. I don't know the tax situation of Hawaii, but I doubt that anyone would change their residence to Hawaii just for a brief military tour. Retired military might be a different story, if there's a lot there. But the active duty probably are voting absentee. Like us: we're in virginia but voted absentee in Florida. Kind of a tough call now that Virginia's so close, but I'm still glad our two votes went for Kerry in the panhandle!

[Teaser]

13. Bush is polling at 42% in HI.

We'll win in a walk.

[venus]

16. Wow, didn't know we did that well in 2000. The change

must be due to changing demographics and the military vote as another poster said. But then again that was true 4 years ago too. I spent some extended time there back in 1995, and although there was a large military presence I wasn't thinking politics back then - just enjoying my work and the views. I bet this change has to do with social issues like abortion.

[David__77]

17. I suspect it will be around 10 points.

I think that the Democrats have to put more attention toward Hawaii. And Hawaii progressives have to build stronger coalitions.

[ShaneGR]

18. Wealthy retirees, relatively unscathed post-911 economically....

And generally we've ignored it.