Don Claybrook
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Mon Nov-01-04 10:30 AM
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My swing state predictions |
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Just wanted to get on the record with my predictions, and would like to hear yours.
Best Guess: Kerry wins with 285-295 electoral votes. 30% chance that he breaks 300 EV. 15% chance that Bush gets (re?) elected.
If bin Laden is “caught” or “killed” today (Monday), all bets are off, and there’s a likely Bush win. If this happens, the fix was already clearly in. 10% chance.
Florida: Kerry by 2-3%. Expect lots of legal action, but comfortable enough Kerry win to render all the cheating moot. Michigan: Kerry, 4% Pennsylvania: Kerry, 6% Arkansas: Bush in a squeaker, wouldn’t be too surprised at a Kerry win Minnesota: Kerry, 3% Nevada: Bush by 2% Hawaii: Kerry, 5%...it was a waste of time for Cheney to campaign there. New Jersey: This isn’t a swing state, like we keep being told. Kerry by 7% Wisconsin: Kerry, 1% Virginia: Bush, but not by as much as most are predicting. Iowa: Kerry, 2% New Hampshire: Kerry, barely. Colorado: Bush, plus the amendment fails. All 9 EV to Bush. Oregon: Kerry by comfortable margin (why is this still listed as a swing state) Washington: See Oregon, above. Ohio: Kerry, by a hair. Expect much court action here as well.
Most anticipated televised moment: Bush’s petulant little concession speech. After that, he needs to be watched 24/7 until he’s on the bus back to Crawford and playing his Game Boy.
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Don Claybrook
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Mon Nov-01-04 10:41 AM
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1. self-bump: GD2004 moving too fast today |
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