More Fox Poll - Early voters Kerry 48% Bush 43%

[unfrigginreal]

Mike McCurry says that of 3mil early votes in 12 battleground states(unnamed) Kerry leads by 6.25%

[deadparrot]

1. That's a bit of a discrepancy

with the other numbers showing * ahead, isn't it?

[GreenPartyVoter]

2. But perhaps early voters are more likely to vote dem on acct of voter

fraud fears?

[sonicx]

4. actually...

other polls of early voters included red states like Texas. this is battleground only i guess.

[JuniorPlankton]

5. Unfortunately,

we don't know for sure if the early voters are representative of the total.

But I sure count on it!

:)

:kick:

[progressivebydesign]

6. What other numbers showing Bush ahead??

I haven't seen any lately.

[deadparrot]

9. It was in a CBS article.

* was in the low 50s (51%, maybe), and Kerry was in the low-to-mid forties.

[DeminDC]

8. Early voting

Bush is ahead in early voting in the national sample, which makes sense because most blue states do not have early voting. However, McCurry is referring to the battlegrounds, so he has separated out the South Dakotas and Alabamas of the country.

[Oreo]

3. So nice to read...

Especially while I'm watching Outfoxed for the first time!

I think they're probably boosting *'s numbers though. Bastards

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. I really don't see how "early" numbers will be much different tomorrow

I don't see statistically how they should be any different. Statisticians please weigh in...

[rjbny62]

10. this is the beginning of the huge turnout of the UNLIKELY's

that will generate a big win for Kerry and allow everyone to get to bed early tomorrow night

[central scrutinizer]

11. 48 + 43 = 91

what is known about the missing 9 percent?
Did they refuse to answer and if so, is there any evidence to think they will split in a similar proportion?
Are they voting for third parties or not voting or all?
Tin foil hat time: Is this a Rovian plot - spread the word to Repugs to refuse to answer to make us overconfident and not work as hard on the GOTV efforts?

[dolstein]

12. 9% don't know who they voted for?

NT

[Dems Will Win]

13. No, they did not vote in a protest against Bush

Same thing happened in Florida (K 56%, Bush 39%) and in Iowa (JK 52% and Bush 41%).

This 4% or 5% falloff of republican voters plus the extra 4% of Rs converting to Kerry (6% Rs to JK, 2% Ds to Bush), explains all the early voting.

In Iowa for example, the 52 JK and 41 Bush would work out to a final poll of JK 54, Bush 44, with third-parties the rest--if it holds up on Election Day.

After that 60 minutes report on Iraq, I'm sure it will hold up.