Leftcoaster -Gallup And Fox (Yes, Fox) Have Bad News For Bush

[rjbny62]

another great post from Leftcoaster

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/

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As we know by now, Gallup released its last national poll last night, and as we expected, in order to preserve its credibility Gallup’s last poll amongst LVs shows last week’s 5% lead for Bush (51%-46%) now shrinking to a 49%-47% lead for Bush over Kerry. Amongst registered voters, Kerry has a 48%-46% lead.

But toss out those results by Gallup. Why? Because take a look at the composition of the LV and RV samples by party ID that Gallup used last night in their poll. I just got the internals from Gallup, and the LV sample they used had a 5% GOP advantage over the Democrats, and Kerry still almost tied Bush.

1573 Likely Voters
1559 In Sample
Bush Leads Kerry 49%-47%

GOP: 624 (40%)
Ind: 389 (25%)
Dem: 546 (35%)

When compared to the 2000 exit poll results, Gallup under sampled Democrats by 4% and over sampled Republicans by 5%, a nifty 9% swing. If the sample was reweighted to more closely follow the 2000 exit poll party ID breakdown of 39% Dem/35% GOP/26% Ind, can you imagine what kind of lead Kerry would have?

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[Borgnine]

1. Gallup is bullshit.

I think this campaign has cemented it once and far all.

[deadparrot]

2. Do we have internals for the Faux poll?

I haven't seen any.

[Demfromct]

3. U must give Gallup credit.

They have no problem saying their methodology and they release it no problem. I know we have killed this poll because of the sampling, but they have been the most open about their internals.

[fishwax]

5. I'm don't see why we should give them credit

if they had any justification for overrepresenting registered republicans, maybe that would be a different story. But I've never heard any explanation as to why they put the % of "likely voters" who are GOP at numbers much higher than we've ever seen in a real election. Give them credit if you want, but the bottom line is that I've seen no reason to trust the numbers.

[fishwax]

4. Gallup's LV numbers have been BS for months

but I've only read about this online and in newspapers. I heard one mention of this dynamic on the tv news, and that was in reference to a nbc poll about the 2nd debate. This should get more play. When cnn releases their flawed gallup poll, msnbc should call bullshit. but they don't.

[seabeyond]

6. e dems will easily out number repugs in turn out this year

think what the number actually is. dems always out number repugs, and especially this year, my prediction