Political Oddsmaker: Bush loses advantage; Slight Shift to Kerry

[West Coast Democrat]

(a note: Political Oddsmaker made final prediction of "toss-up" in 2000 election)

http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/index.cfm?navid=12

George W. Bush (R) and John F. Kerry (D), even (50% chance each; Bush chances downgraded Nov. 1 from 50.5% chance; downgraded Oct. 27 from 51% chance; upgraded from 50.6% chance Oct. 17; downgraded from 51% chance Oct. 14; downgraded Sept. 30 from 51.7% chance; upgraded Sept. 18 from 51% chance; upgraded Sept. 4 from 50.5% chance)

Analysis: For the first time since January 2001 Bush has lost his advantage in The Political Oddsmaker. There is some evidence, though contradictory, that indicates a slight shift in Kerry's favor duringthe last 48 hours. Can Bush firm it up today? Or will the slide continue? It seems that most of the political indicators have broken down given the closeness of the race and the conflicting data being reported.

ELECTORAL VOTES:

Bush favored, 227 votes; Kerry favored, 242 votes; 59 even. At this point, neither candidate can claim enough Electoral Votes to win. This race remains unsettled in a number of key states. Both candidates have several states in their columns that are very shaky and subject to switching. (270 Electoral Votes needed to win).

[West Coast Democrat]

1. bump!

[onehandle]

2. That's excellent news. Gore won on that news with worse numbers. nt