How are the Senate races in the South?

[rockymountaindem]

Are we going to win in SC, NC, LA, FL and KY? I haven't heard about these in a couple of days. Does anybody have any early voting results or late polls?

[CottonBear]

1. check out the Daily Kos blog site.

<http://www.dailykos.com/>
There are house and senate threads as well as an OurCongress site with much more info. <http://www.ourcongress.org/>

[BOSSHOG]

2. I'm optimistic about Louisiana

The gloves have come off and the republican is getting pummeled. I love it. The state has an open primary so lets hope there is a runoff in December and President Elect Kerry can go there and campaign for the democratic nominee. There are three democrats and one republican running. If no one gets 50%, the top two are in a runoff.

[derbstyron]

3. Last poll in FL that I saw

had Betty Castor overtaking Martinez by 2.5 pts. I can't remember the poll but this is still withing the margin of error. It is good news though, as all other polls had shown Martinez up by a couple and/or deadlocked.
I'm cautiously excited. :0

[DemFromMem]

5. Massive Florida turnout should help Castor a lot

[dolstein]

4. Here's the truth, if you can handle it

The best case scenario is that the Dems lose two (SC and GA), win three (NC, FL and KY) and force a runoff in Lousiana.

The worst case scenario is that the Dems lose all of them, including Lousiana (if the GOP candidate gets more than 50%, there's no runoff). Don't laugh, it could happen.

Right now our best shots appear to be in North Carolina and Florida, which are currently too close to call. Mongiardo could pull an upset in Kentucky, but most commentators are saying Bunning will likely hold on (don't forget, Bush will carry Kentucky by a huge margin, which will probably help Bunning). Georgia is definitely a lost cause, and Inez Tenanbaum has been trailing in the polls from almost the start. Lousiana isn't looking too good either -- the GOP candidate is very close to the 50% threshold, and again, this is a state that Bush is likely to win by a large margin.

[liberalpragmatist]

6. Truthfully not so good

Georgia's a definite loss. SC's a possible Dem retention, but leans Republican pickup because of the natural GOP lean in that state. NC looked great until a couple weeks back, but Burr has surged and I'm afraid he has the momentum. Hopefully if Bush's margin over Kerry is drastically reduced by strong Dem turnout, then Bowles will win.

We have an even chance in Florida. It'll probably come down to whoever wins the Presidential race there. If Kerry wins, then Castor wins. If Bush wins, Martinez wins.

In Louisiana it depends on other circumstances. Vitter might break 50%, in which case it'd obviously be a loss. If he pulls under 50 but the race will determine US Senate control, then the Republicans still have to be favored. Hopefully it'll go to a runoff and it won't affect party control.

My current guess is we retain Florida and Louisiana, but lose the other 3. As for Kentucky, I'm hoping for an upset, but Bunning already built up a large lead, and it may be too little too late.

[rockymountaindem]

7. So I guess we're not going to retake the Senate?

That sucks.