Ken Rudin - Political Columnist - Predicts KERRY Wins! 274-264

[liberalpragmatist]

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4136425

In this column four years ago (published by WashingtonPost.com at the time), I picked Al Gore to win, with 279 electoral votes to George W. Bush's 259. (I was wrong on four states, mistakenly giving Gore Arkansas and Florida, and putting Oregon and Wisconsin in the Bush column.) This year, astonishingly, I see it even closer: John Kerry wins, with 274 electoral votes -- four more than needed -- to Bush's 264. But here's how close it truly is: should Bush win either Iowa or Minnesota (both currently seen as dead even, but I have them going Democratic), he wins re-election. And should he and not Kerry carry New Mexico, both candidates would be tied at 269 and the election goes to the House. Here's my final tally (with electoral votes in parentheses):

Bush (264): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Colorado (9), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Virginia (13), West Virginia (5), Wisconsin (10), Wyoming (3).

Kerry (274): California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), D.C. (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11).

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I disagree with him on New Mexico, Wisconsin, and somewhat on Florida and Iowa. Personally, I think we're gonna lose New Mexico - not that we shouldn't work hard. We definitely have a shot there, but if I had to choose, I'd say it goes with Bush this time. Wisconsin will be Kerry's - he's moved up. I also think Iowa's somewhat iffy for Kerry. And I think Florida will go to Kerry. So I think it'll be either 299-239 Kerry or 306-232 Kerry.