Zogby's election eve Call: Kerry 264 bush 247 Florida Tie

[milkyway]

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=923

[Chichiri]

1. The Ohio poll is an outlier.

Kerry will do much better than that, and will in fact probably take the state.

[milkyway]

12. It seems that way, but I'm not as confident as I was about Ohio.

[ogradda]

2. ahhhh crap please not again

no i refuse to believe it not the same state twice...

[elperromagico]

3. Not Florida AGAIN!!! Damn it!

The Sunshine State is rapidly becoming the electoral equivalent of a pantload.

[aquart]

4. Are they trying to KILL me?????????????????????

[WI_DEM]

5. I think Zogby is off regarding Ohio; I really think Kerry will win it

[bluestateguy]

6. If that's true then Bush wins

Kerry and the Democrats cannot win a Florida another recount with Jeb Bush, Glenda Hood and the Republicans controlling all the governmental machinery of the state. They'll do what they need to do to see to it that the Little Bush Boy President gets the votes he needs.

[RummyTheDummy]

24. Kerry will win Florida

NT

[regnaD kciN]

27. What I'm really worried about re: Florida...

...is that, no matter what the advantage to Kerry, Repugs will file lawsuits challenging the results, for no other purpose than to stretch the court deliberations out to beyond the time when electoral votes have to be reported, at which point the Repug-controlled Florida state legislature will simply appoint a group of Bush electors to represent the state. It's all perfectly legal, and sure to be ratified by SCOTUS.

:scared:

[RummyTheDummy]

31. Yada Yada Yada

I've heard it all before. Listen again, Kerry -- Will--Win--Florida.

My guess is by about 50-60 thousand votes -- at least.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. There Can Only Be A Recount If The Diff Is

It won't be that close either way....

[jab105]

7. I'm in Florida and 2000 election was so huge...

I really dont want to go through that again...

[nytemare]

15. some early voting exit poll had Kerry up by 8 percent

I think it was a Gallup poll of voters as they exited the early voting poll places, but Kerry was up by a significant amount, and Bush would really have to turn out the vote to win, but from what I have seen they are to busy supressing the vote. This also depends on if the machines recorded these people's votes correctly.

[WindRavenX]

8. people...let's calm down

I seriously suggest ignoring polls tonight; reading this is just going to kill us.
Kerry is gonna win this goddamn thing.

[helpisontheway]

9. Please no...not FLorida again

We are in so much trouble if it depends on Florida. Please let Arkansas,VA or some other state be the surprise boots. Damn..not again!!!!!

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

10. How do they define a "tie" in florida?

Fewer than 500 votes, apparently?

[yankeedem]

11. Can we just saw Florida off this time?

Heck, if we miss and get part of Georgia and Alabama, that's ok too.

[The Doctor.]

19. Sure - we'll use our new orbital 'Lasers'...

[LilKim]

13. Florida's in the bag

I am more confident of a win there than any other battleground state.

[helpisontheway]

16. With Jeb as governor..I don't think so...any other governor

and we would have a shot. He will make that state his brother's at all costs.

[LilKim]

33. I disagree

This isn't 2000. Each side has fielded an army of lawyers, poll watchers, etc. Florida is under such a microscope in so many different ways that there's just no way in hell Jeb or anyone else is going to be able to try anything funny. And with Democratic turnout forecasted to be at historic levels, Florida is just a shoo-in.

[KAZ]

34. FL more than OH... n/t

n/t

[Clinton Crusader]

14. I cant go through this FL business again, no fucking way

And he gives OH to *??????

[democrat in Tallahassee]

17. he can't possibly call it with that much accuracy. so just chill

[cubsfan forever]

35. Thank you!

From all I have been hearing from DUers in OH and FL, Kerry should win both states. I think Zogby is trying to play the "watch my poll" game. I would appreciate your thoughts.

Professor 2

[democrat in Tallahassee]

39. I think florida will be blue tomorrow; democrats are energized

like I've never seen and the lines have been long here. of course, who knows what jeb has been up to, but I feel good about the state. Also older people are pissed about not getting their flu shot. and they are mad about the medicare scam.

[WilliamPitt]

18. READ THIS POST RIGHT NOW

Zogby does well with national numbers. In the state numbers, however, he gets shaky. Recall that Zogby had Bush and Gore statistically tied in California on the eve of the 2000 election. Gore won the state by 1.5 million votes.

So bear that in mind.

[Andromeda]

28. That's right, Will.

Thanks for refreshing my memory. Zogby was waaaaay off on California.

[lupita]

20. I think we are going to win Florida. n/t

[VOX]

22. After 2000, it would be so SWEET to have Florida go for Kerry in 2004.

It would be too perfect!

:toast:

[Gloria]

21. I think he's covering his butt...I think he's screwed up big time...look

at how NM went from a 10 point spread to a tie almost overnight. His state polls are all crap.

And what's this "FINAL PREDICTION" at 5 pm crap??? I mean, there will already by indications of voter turnout by then....and he's doing a "prediction" at 5 pm on election day??

Add Zogby to junk heap of polling firms that can't get a good sample anymore!!!

[milkyway]

25. NM is bizarre. A 3-day tracking poll had bush go from +9 to even in one

day. That means Kerry had to be up well into double digits on the last poll day. Doesn't make much sense.

[PSU84]

23. WOW! He's right about all but TWO states!

Kerry will win both Ohio and Florida.

Kerry 311
Bush 227

[Oddman]

26. Kerry's ahead in Florida

And the undecideds will break for him putting him up even more.


bush failed America - new commercial - click here

[geek tragedy]

29. So he chickened out.

He went from "Kerry's to lose" to "Jeb picks the winner."

Hack.

[Oddman]

30. NH must win - that's me

Get out the NH vote!!!!

bush failed America - new commercial - click here

[dave502d]

40. How the hell did Jeb get back in FL after 2000.

[Kolesar]

36. Kerry has 120,000 activists working in Ohio right now

How can this be?

[quaker bill]

37. We are taking Florida

The Dems are more pissed here than probably anywhere else. In 2000 I was the only Dem I knew that was a Gore campaign volunteer. Today, I know of almost no one on our side of the table that is not involved.

I cook and feed the guys at a homeless shelter in Orlando on the first every month. They are all registered and are going to vote Bush out. I told them about the ammendment to raise the minimum wage. I predict a 100 percent turnout.

I drove home through 6 Kerry/Edwards "visibility" events. There were no Bush events. The people are charged up. The signs read "George W. Bush - You're Fired"

At early voting the line stretched around the block. The Bushies showed up trying to pass out literature. After about 2 minutes they beat a hasty and undignified retreat.

Nothing even remotely like this happened with Gore in 2000. I am telling you right now that we are winning Florida and winning it early in the evening.

[cubsfan forever]

38. News from someone on the ground! Thank you!

and Bless you for your work, you helping to save America!

Professor 2

[democrat in Tallahassee]

41. agreed. same here

[milkyway]

44. Thanks for what you're doing! I think you're right--I've thought for

a couple of years the Dems will take Florida this year with an overwhelming turnout the likes of which the repugs have never seen before.

[shivaji]

42. JDWalley nailed it on the head....lawsuits will tie up Florida until

the dead-line to report EV's passes, then the FL legislature gets to appoint handpicked Electors. We need OHIO and Colorado to pull off a win for Kerry.

[ekwhite]

43. This doesn't jibe with the numbers on the WSJ site...

The numbers on the WSJ site give Kerry at least 286 EV. Why does Zogby predict Kerry 264, Bush 247? Zogby shows Kerry ahead by 1% in FL, with 5% undecided. Something smells fishy here...

[shivaji]

45. All depends on which polls they are using.............n/t

[ekwhite]

48. They are using the Zogby poll...

But I looked at the numbers, and Zogby is counting on Kerry taking New Mexico, and a tie in Florida. He is also giving Ohio to Bush. His numbers for Kerry are lower than the other polls.

[splat]

46. zogby has to GOTV; it's his role now

Getting everybody's vote counted needs so big a margin that Bush will concede in two days.

The supremes won't go along this time.

[Doctor_J]

47. so he's callling it for *, i guess...

too bad. he sounded confident for us on friday, and he was the only one who got it right in 2000.

anyone who thinks we are going to win FL needs to read palast. Jeb hsa already purged a million dem voters. unless kerry was going to carry fl by more than a million, i don't really see how he has a prayer down there.

Prediction: there will be gunfire at one of the polling places tomorrow, where one of the "vote verifiers" gets a little too aggressive.

[cubsfan forever]

49. I was the one who posted the Palast article here on DU

He DID NOT say 1M votes in Florida,That was a nationwide number,including NM NV WI,OH etc. And no, he didn't "get it right" in 2000, Harris did. Zogby also hedged his bet with that "final poll" tomorrow at 5 PM.Zogby also called CA a tossup in 2000; and we all know how by much Gore won there.

Professor 2
(Doctor also)