ARG Tracking: Kerry closing the gap on Clark, Dean up by six

[WI_DEM]

Howard Dean didn't gain any ground in the latest ARG tracking poll, but his lead over Wesley Clark in latest tracking poll is up from five-points yesterday to six-points today, 28-22. Clark lost a point from yesterday.

John Kerry gained two points and is now at 18% in NH. Up from 16% yesterday.

John Edwards also jumped two-points since yesterday--with 8%.

If Kerry and Edwards do well in Iowa it could add to their momentum in NH.

www.americanresearchgroup.com

[Padraig18]

1. A good showing by Kerry will hurt Clark in NH.

Dean's supporters are pretty hard-core, and Kerry and Clark seem to be fighting for the same voter demographic, IMO.

[wtmusic]

2. yep

It's the 'maybe the war is wrong but at least these guys fought in one' demo...

[jumptheshadow]

5. Or perhaps it's the "best man for the job" demo

Clark/Kerry could be a great team.

[wtmusic]

12. lol

touché! :-)

[Padraig18]

13. As long as they divide the demographic, it works for me.

:P

[Bread and Circus]

17. It may be good for Dean but it may not be good for the Country

[ModerateMiddle]

14. or Kerry / Clark

;)

[WI_DEM]

3. I believe you are right

I think it is possible that Kerry and Edwards will both come out strongly in Iowa--not necessarily winning, but showing more strength than assumed and enough to keep their campaigns alive. This isn't good for Clark in NH (with Kerry) or for Clark in South Carolina (with Edwards in the mix).

[maddezmom]

4. seems like Edwards and Kerry are on the upswing

both spell trouble for Clark. :( But a lot depends on the outcome in Iowa.

[Quixote1818]

9. Kerry and Edwards time is numbered

The problem is that Kerry, Edwards and Clark all hurt each other, which allows Dean to do better then, he should. I don't think Edwards and Kerry will be able to compete very well in the Feb. 3rd states however. Clark and Dean have been running ads for several weeks now and tons of people have already voted absentee for Clark and Dean. Kerry and Edwards don't have enough money to compete past New Hampshire and then it becomes a two-man race. Sorry Kerry and Edwards but I think your time is limited unless you win something. Here in New Mexico all we know is Clark and Dean!

[curse10]

6. Kerry is on fire!

It's pretty amazing how in the past few days he's been jumping in the polls. Polls don't indicate everything, but, it is a good indicator that he's gaining in at least recognition.

[WI_DEM]

7. he is coming on strongly in both Iowa and NH

there is hope yet for his supporters.

[windansea]

8. 100,000 Iowans

are not going to decide who the nominee is

[WI_DEM]

10. well they will decide the winner of the Iowa caucuses

not necessarily the nominee you are correct. But they will help influence what happens in the next contest--NH.

[Padraig18]

11. Maybe not, but...

... they are more than capable of throwing sand into the gears of some well-oiled campaign machines.

[windansea]

15. yes lots of sand being thrown

Dean supporters hoping for a good showing by Kerry

how the worm turns...I hope he does good too..but not because it has any relation to Clark's chances...I think Kerry would be an awesome candidate

[Padraig18]

16. I think he'd make a great GE candidate, too.

he's just not my candidate in the primary. If he gets the nomination, he can expect my full, unqualified support; I will work my fingers to the bone to get ANY of our candidates elected POTUS. :)

[blm]

20. I don't think the Dean camp will push for a Kerry win.

Kerry has the money to tap if he wants to.

I think that was a red herring from the Dean camp.

[Justice]

18. Going To Be A Close One In NH

People in NH became much more focused after the new year. When I canvassed there a few weeks ago, many people were undecided. I also think people are looking at Kerry again, cuz even if they are unhappy with the IWR vote, they are looking at Kerry's entire record -- not just one vote.

[maddezmom]

19. kick

:kick:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

21. Kerry & Edwards are the only candidates gaining overall

2004 New Hampshire Democratic Tracking
3-Day Results 1/9-11 1/10-12 1/11-13 1/12-14 1/13-15 1/14-16
Braun 	        0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0%
Clark 	        19% 	20% 	22% 	24% 	23% 	22%
Dean 	        36% 	34% 	32% 	29% 	28% 	28%
Edwards 	3% 	3% 	3% 	5% 	6% 	8%
Gephardt 	4% 	4% 	4% 	4% 	3% 	3%
Kerry 	        10% 	11% 	13% 	15% 	16% 	18%
Kucinich 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1% 	1%
Lieberman 	10% 	9% 	9% 	7% 	7% 	6%
Sharpton 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0%
Other 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0% 	0%
Undecided 	17% 	18% 	16% 	15% 	16% 	14%
	  					
Sample size 	616 	621 	623 	622 	616 	616
	  					
Democrats 	425 	430 	435 	435 	430 	429
Undeclared 	191 	191 	188 	187 	186 	187
Undeclared (%) 	31% 	31% 	30% 	30% 	30% 	30%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points



Changes in Ballot Preference by Party - 1/9 to 1/16
Jan 16 	       Dems   Change Undeclared Change
Clark 	        19% 	0 	29% 	+ 5
Dean 	        33% 	- 2 	15% 	- 21
Edwards 	7% 	+ 4 	11% 	+ 10
Gephardt 	4% 	0 	0% 	0
Kerry 	        16% 	+ 4 	21% 	+ 17
Kucinich 	2% 	0 	0% 	0
Lieberman 	7% 	0 	2% 	- 8
Sharpton 	0% 	0 	0% 	0
Undecided 	12% 	- 6 	22% 	- 3



That last column is the interesting one I think.  Among
undeclareds, a 21 point drop for Dean  Kerry up 17, Edwards up
10, Dean up 5.

Aren't those the very people that some campaign was telling
weren't eligible to vote?