Final Gallup Poll Points to Kerry Win

[Clinton Crusader]

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000901.php

Final Gallup Poll Points to Kerry Win

Ruy Teixera writes, "Sunday night, Gallup released their final national poll, based on an unusually large sample (over 2,000 adults), plus six polls in key battleground states (OH, FL, PA, IA, WI and MN). The results indicate that Kerry is finishing strongly and should be in a good position to pull off a victory on Tuesday. In the national poll, Kerry is ahead by a point among RVs in a 2-way race (48-47) and by 2 points in a 3-way race (48-46)... Gallup's state polls showed Kerry with solid leads in both Ohio and Florida among both LVs and RVs, since those were the two states in the 'big three' (OH, FL, PA) that seemed most competitive and were red states in 2000. And, while Gallup's PA poll did show Bush with a lead among LVs, it also showed him trailing among RVs in a state where polls have very consistently shown Bush behind. The most reasonable assumption, it seems to me, is that Kerry is still the odds-on winner in that state."

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

1. Does this include Gallup's standard Republican oversampling?

[Randi_Listener]

2. Now this is news I can live with.

G.O.T. fucking V.

[Rowdyboy]

3. Fantastic read...Full of GREAT news...Please read and

thanks for the link.... :toast:

[Doctor_J]

4. i dunno

if Kerry doesn't even have PA on ice yet, does he really have a prayer?

[fishwax]

6. Are you kidding?

:shrug:

most polls have Kerry solidly ahead in PA, and have for a couple of weeks now. This poll, as the OP says, differs from most other polls, which show JK in the lead in PA.

Also, in case you're still worried (:)), the PA poll in question shows JK ahead in the RV numbers but behind in only the LV numbers. It is in the LV numbers that Gallup drasically distorts their numbers by normalizing to about 40% republicans, even though historically repubs never make up more than about 34% of the voters in a given election.

There may still be some cause for concern, but it ain't in PA :bounce:

[fidgeting wildly]

5. interesting: "by 2 points in a 3-way race"

Kerry leads by 1 pt. against Bush, but by 2 pts. against Bush and Nader. Does this mean what it looks like? Nader siphoning votes from Bush and not Kerry?!?! :crazy: If so, that is truly amazing.

Get ready for a Kerry landslide!

[shelley806]

7. this is very good news; recent Zogby showed B* ahead in OH

by 49-43; which I find unbelievable. But the combined polls make it look like a sure Kerry win despite the spin.

2 out of 3 win in the 2 sets = Presidency

1.) OH, FL, PA and 2.) MN, WI, NM

Zogby: Kerry ahead in MN, NM, PA, and WI (needs OH or FL)
B* ahead in OH
FL tied

Gallup as above: solid leads in FL and OH for Kerry

The combined polls look excellent for President Kerry!!!!