180 BG polls snapshot measured day by day over last 3 weeks,

[Perky]

I am a nut for data.

Basically I am taking all the states within 6 pts averaging the last ten polls from each as published on Electoral-vote.com. so I have been averaging the most recent 180 poll snapshot for the last three weeks.

What I have noted is that while there is not much momentum for either...Kerry has closed som very small gaps withing the MOE to virtually nothing. I place 196 EVs in the BG category.. From Oregon to Virgina

I am actually pretty confident of a 300 EV win for JFK

Mostly becasu high turnouts, high African American turnout, enthusiastic new voters, the 60/40 split for the challengers by last minute deciders and the fact that those with cell phones don't get polled.

My prediction is that Kerry winns PA,OH, FL, WI, MN while W wins Iowa.

The big suprise of the night: Virginia will be a blue state barely.

[IowaGuy]

1. Why Iowa for W?

Iowa poll has it for Kerry by 2....ground game is excellent here. It could go as you you say...but every gut instinct I have about what I'm seeing on the ground and in peoples faces tells me it's Kerry in IA

[Perky]

2. Again I take the last ten polls

Its a dead heat. the 10day rolling snapshot shows the gap widening but certainly sitll within the MoE. I am not saying it is not going to happen..I would be delighted if if we win the big six.

I am a realist with the data..the other states are just breaking heavier for Kerry and Iowa has fewers undecideds to split 3/2.

We will know tomorrow.