Ok give it to me straight DUers, no bullshit, who's it gonna be?

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

Take off your Democrat hats for a second, step outside your normal self, try to be as objective as you possibly can about this question:

Who is really going to win it?

Please try to be as objective as you can. You can support your answer with just gut instinct or with logical support for your argument.

Thank you in advance.

Oh and while I'm at it: I HATE most cable and network TV news shows and don't watch them. I refuse to watch Fux or NBC altogether. Can anyone recommend a good station to watch for returns? I also can't stand crazy melodramatic graphics all over the place, but I know that will be a bit hard to avoid, this is America after all. Will C-SPAN, my favorite, be doing election coverage???

[graywarrior]

1. Based on talking to many people over the past 2 months? Kerry

This is from canvassing, volunteering, phone calls, rallys. It's Kerry.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

2. Thank you graywarrior, for everything you have done

and for your answer.

[Quetzal]

Good God

I'm sorry, I just don't know :shrug:

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

5. Thanks for being honest, though!

[freedomburn]

3. Too close to call.

50/50

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

6. Thank you.

And welcome to DU.

[Melodybe]

4. Kerry, things have been manic since 9/11 and people need a break.

People are poorer, sicker, and more miserable than they have been in years, Bush is toast.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

7. Thanks

good reasons to vote him out!

[Joe Turner]

93. You echo my sentiments exactly....thanks n/t

[Daocrat]

8. I'm hopeful it will be Kerry

Because of the expected turnout, the large number of first-time voters, and the dedication of Bush's opponents.

I can't guarantee it will be Kerry, but I'm feeling good about our chances. I have a lot of hope.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

12. Thank you

good support for your argument, too. That makes me feel very hopeful indeed.

[lebkuchen]

9. Kerry will win

Our military is fed up with Bush.

Letters to Stars and Stripes (partial list)

A vote for Kerry—Oct. 16, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24921

Draft more fair than stop-loss—Oct. 11, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24832

Undeserving commander—Oct. 8, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24789

Send reservists home first—Oct. 6, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24747

No to civilianizing hospitals—Oct. 5, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24725

Retirement for reservists/Googler makes discovery/Check facts on Kerry—Oct. 3, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24704

Ugly American Returns/Germans support Americans/Free to speak foolishly—Sept. 30, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24661

Questions on prostitution rule--Sept. 29, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24613

Make deployments equal—Sept. 28, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24612

Bush to blame?—Sept. 27, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24600

Army’s redheaded stepchild—Sept. 26, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24584

Broadcast was offensive—Sept. 25, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24566

Halliburton and profits—Sept. 23, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24531

Deployment doubly difficult—Sept. 17, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24421

Toe the line or else—Sept. 11, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24320

Strong leadership?—Sept. 6, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24226

AAFES censorship (of F 9-11)—Aug. 29, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24087

Bush’s behavior on 9/11—Aug. 27, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=24055

Too much Fox? You decide; Civilian leadership failed the troops—Aug 18, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=23897

What protection?—Aug. 2, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=23299&archive=true

Response to Rumsfeld—Aug. 20, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=23942

Too much FOX news—Aug. 6, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=23371&archive=true

Don’t follow leaders blindly; Kerry’s war actions—Aug. 5, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=23370&archive=true

Letter was chilling; Christ’s words lost—July 30, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=23296&archive=true

Bush leadership weak—July 29, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=23295&archive=true

Don’t blame Clinton—July 27, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=23293&archive=true



Bush vs. military standards; Gay marriage—get over it—July 24, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=23290&archive=true

Conservatives are like sheep—July 15, 2004
http://www.stripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=22980&archive=true

Bush actions parallel enemies—June 30, 2004
http://www.stripesonline.com/article.asp?section=125&article=22650&archive=true

Can FOX News be trusted?—June 18, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=22420&archive=true

Impeach Bush—June 11, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=22413&archive=true

Troops not forgotten—June 7, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=22240&archive=true

Lies and failures—May 23, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=22017&archive=true

‘Year in hell’ long enough; Treat GIs like heroes—May 20, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=22003&archive=true

Rumsfeld should resign—May 11, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=21889&archive=true

Iraq resembles Vietnam; Distortion and deception; Abuse of prisoners—May 9, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=21779&archive=true

Bush fought pay restoration—May 3, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=21768&archive=true

We need them back; Get out and vote; Enough is Enough—April 18, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=21380&archive=true


Thanks, Secretary Rumsfeld; Supports troops, not mission; Let them come home—April13, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=21375&archive=true

Dr. Laura and the Military/Spend more for protection—March 26, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=20988&archive=true

A little selective amnesia; Spend more for protection—March 25, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=20987&archive=true

Must demand better—March 7, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=20639&archive=true

Canceled R and R; Vietnam, Iraq similar—Feb. 8, 2004
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=20107&archive=true

Bush visit disrupted dining--Dec. 5, 2003
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=18886&archive=true

Take Limbaugh off AFN; Mission real national tragedy—Nov. 28, 2003
http://www.stripesonline.com/article.asp?section=125&article=18798&archive=true

Will Limbaugh change?; Remove Limbaugh show—Nov. 27, 2003
http://www.stripesonline.com/article.asp?section=125&article=18797&archive=true

Will be glad to leave Army; Conditions deplete Guard
http://estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=18992&archive=true
Above URL no longer works; letters are here:

Dec. 1, 2003

Will be glad to leave Army

I’m assigned to the Chemical Reconnaissance Platoon, 89th Chemical Company, 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment based out of Al-Asad Airfield, Iraq. Let me tell our story to all the soldiers having a great time here.

My soldiers and I were initially assigned to 2nd Squadron, 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment when we entered Iraq in April. We moved from troop to troop nine times in four months, never really having a home. My soldiers and I have driven more than 13,000 miles in Iraq from Dogwood, south of Baghdad, to Tikrit in the north.

Every time I turn around I have a new chain of command who I must “get along with.” My soldiers and I are physically and mentally worn out, yet we continue to soldier on as professionals every day. We’ve been shot at, hit with rocket-propelled grenades, run in front of exploding improvised explosive devices, and run over unexploded land mines. Yet we continue to soldier on without complaining or running our mouths. Our living conditions have ranged from good to inhuman. It depends on when and where we are assigned. The summer was the worst, as temperatures hovered in the mid-130s at Ramadi and Fallujah. Yet we continue to soldier on.

We’re currently assigned to the 82nd Airborne Division Artillery and further operational control to the 21st Chemical Company for ammunition supply point assessment and reduction. I have no doubt that when the 82nd is finished with us, we’ll be passed on to someone else.

Oh, did I mention that we’ve not done chemical recon since coming here? We’re used as site security, convoy security, a quick reaction force, and escorts for both civilians and military personnel. My soldiers and I would love to take rest and recuperation leave, but alas, I don’t think we’ll be chosen.

When all of my soldiers and I get home safely next April or May, I’ll actually be glad to leave an Army that I once loved. I hope readers can see the smile on my face while I’m typing this and saying that I hope all soldiers here, regardless of branch, make it home safely.

Staff Sgt. Marc S. Jacobson
Al-Asad Airfield, Iraq


Conditions deplete Guard

This is to all those who say that guardsmen and reservists in Iraq and Kuwait need to suck it up and drive on or get out: We will suck it up and drive on, and we will get out.

I was in Kuwait in Desert Storm as a National Guardsman. When we returned, there was a mass exodus from the units. That’s why units have to have fillers this time. We were only here for five months the last time. We did our job and left.

The longer we’re here, the more we get a “don’t care” attitude. To think that the regular Army doesn’t need the Guard is crazy.

Sgt. Merlin Nichols
Camp Navistar, Kuwait


Real national tragedy
Nov. 24, 2003
http://estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=18896
URL no longer works. Letter here:

Stars and Stripes’ front page on Nov. 3 published the headline, “Deadly day in Iraq.” The caption under the front-page photo of the downed CH-47 Chinook helicopter included a statement by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. He called the deadly downing of the Chinook “a national tragedy.”

The downed helicopter with its killed and injured U.S. military personnel was not a national tragedy. It was a needless and terrible loss of our brave soldiers. In my opinion, the real national tragedy is George W. Bush. Why? He didn’t get elected fair and square, and his politics are making a mockery of America. Further, I feel he took us to war over the objections of many Americans under false pretenses. President Bush used weapons of mass destruction as his reason when his real, diehard reason was to take control of Iraqi oil for himself, his father, and his cronies – some of whom have personal involvement/interest in oil and oil support companies.

I’m also of the opinion that President Bush’s burning desire to control and capitalize on Iraqi oil has alienated many countries and allies and further infuriated the Muslim world with more hate for America. No wonder we’re going it almost alone in Iraq and losing good soldiers every day.

It is again my opinion that President Bush has traded American blood for Iraqi oil. Now he and Secretary Rumsfeld have the proverbial “tiger by the tail” and don’t begin to know how to turn it loose.

In my opinion, the real story on this whole sordid mess that President Bush has gotten America into can be found in Gore Vidal’s book, “Dreaming War: Blood For Oil and the Cheney-Bush Junta.” I urge every registered military voter, as well as those personnel who are not registered voters, to read it.

Phil Williamson II
Sicily


‘Hero’ image a myth
Nov. 19, 2003
http://estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=18795
URL no longer works. Letter below:

The letter “Iraqis must help themselves” (Nov. 12) suggested that countries critical of the coalition forces’ liberation of Iraq are in some way indirectly responsible for the deaths of thousands of Iraqi civilians.

The writer was quick to label such critics as being guilty of providing weapons and training to Iraq. This may indeed be the case. However, would the writer be so keen to put America on the chopping block? After all, it was the Reagan and first Bush administrations that provided Osama bin Laden with the necessary training with which to form al-Qaida and further the necessary funds with which to carry out this training. Is America therefore indirectly responsible for the deaths of thousands of Afghans, not to mention the 3,000 killed on Sept. 11, 2001?

Please cease all of this sentimental, patriotic claptrap that sees America painted as, once again, the conquering hero.

Clementine Ford
Naha, Okinawa, Japan


Money can't fix Iraq
Nov. 17, 2003
http://estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=18689
URL no longer works. Letter below:

Why do we allow ourselves to be brainwashed into thinking that money will eventually buy our way out of Iraq. The only people who believe that philosophy are the ones responsible for putting us there.

I keep reading in the newspapers that “we will not be intimidated,” “more and more Iraqis are supporting our programs” and that “we will win this war.” Has anyone noticed that this little war of ours is starting to look like the one between the Israelis and the Palestinians? Their little conflict has been in the news forever and shows no signs of stopping. I once asked a Middle Eastern person how long the conflict between the Jews and Arabs would continue. He replied: “Until the last Jew has disappeared.”

The Iraqis are using the same terror tactics as the Palestinians and will be able to prolong this conflict for as long as they wish. As with the Palestinian-Israeli war, too many of the Iraqis see us as invaders and occupiers and will continue to fight as long as we are on their land. They see the United States as an Israeli ally and, consequently, their enemy.

In the Middle East, the nation of Islam is stronger than an allegiance to any nation. What is seen as an enemy to one is an enemy to all. King Richard the Lion-Hearted ran into the same problems in the 1100s. Current headlines read: “Attacks are increasing, but we are going to use more power.” We have all the groundwork for a long conflict in Iraq.

It is difficult for Americans to believe the Iraqis would prefer to be led by someone like Saddam Hussein rather than a liberator from the West. But many Iraqis view the American troops as infidels. Better to be led by a devil you know than by an infidel — a nonbeliever.

In response, our leaders are providing a wonderful example of “brute force” politics. We are determined to make our present Iraqi policy work, no matter the cost. Somehow, it has become un-American to criticize current foreign policy. It is taken as a slam against our brave troops, who are trying to implement orders while dodging bombs and bullets.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Our forces are dedicated, loyal and committed to providing a better life for the Iraqi people. But we cannot — and should not — cram our way of life down their throats.

Even worse, while trying to teach the Iraqis how to institute a democratic way of life, we are not willing to let American citizens exercise their democratic right of dissension.

However, I think it is more un-American to sit quietly by and let our government drag us into one quagmire after another, especially when we find out, too late, that the whole policy was based on lies and deception. I think it is un-American to sit idly by and watch our young troops getting killed day after day, to see billions of dollars going to help foreign cities, and to put up with trusted leaders who dance around the truth and wrap the American flag around their misbegotten causes.

We have too many citizens who need health care, food, homes, education, schools and jobs. Let’s fight our own war on poverty and take care of the United States first. Winston Churchill once said: “Americans will always do the right thing … after they’ve exhausted all the alternatives.” Well, it is time to do the right thing for America — not next week or next year, but now. We also had a president who said: “You can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all the time.” It is time for some of us to stand up and say, “Enough is enough.” My representatives in Congress know how I feel.

Clifton J. Jester
Kadena Air Base, Okinawa


Bush not in Iraq
July 13, 2003
http://estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=16637
URL obsolete. Letter here:

It was a no-brainer that President Bush’s reaction to the attacks on our troops in Iraq was “bring them on.” He’s not there. He’s not feeling the day-to-day heat and the stress of being away from home and getting shot at and maybe killed. Bush sure is a tough guy. So tough, in fact, that he was in the National Guard during the Vietnam War flying over Texas, and during part of that time was absent without leave. Nobody seems to remember that. People should do some research. So let’s all rally around Bush and support the Iraqis to “bring them on.” And let’s keep our troops in a dangerous position while our government tries to figure out what its next move will be.

Bush’s daughters are old enough to join the military, right? Why not send them to a recruiting station and “bring them on”? Oh, I forgot. Daddy has money and is running the United States.

And what about the United States’ weapons of mass destruction? Out of every country in the world that has weapons of mass destruction, the United States is the only country that has used them. What if the world wakes up and bands together and comes on over and tries to disarm the United States? What if they want to go door-to-door and take our own personnel weapons?

Saddam Hussein is gone, and for that the world is a better place, even though we haven’t found him or Osama bin Laden yet. What happened to all of that American money that was found over there? While our own government cuts money from such things as education and Social Security to fund the war, the money that was found is doing what? Is our government turning around and putting it right back into Iraq? I don’t know. It hasn’t said. It’s like the American ammunition that was found during the first few days of the war. It was probably left over from when we armed Saddam to fight Iran. Did readers not know that?

One last question: How long are we going to sit around and let our friends, fathers, mothers, sons, daughters, aunts and uncles stay in Iraq? What is the magic number of dead American troops that has to be reached before Bush gets tired of telling Iraqis to “bring it on”?

Jason Mayfield
Hanau, Germany

Thanksgiving visit--Nov. 7, 2003
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=18888&archive=true

Stars and Stripes letters, Aug. 31 – Sept. 6, 2003
http://estripes.com/article.asp?section=125&article=17402
URL obsolete. Letters here:

August 31, 2003

Yearning for substance

As a soldier deployed in Baghdad, I look forward to the three- and four-day-old copies of Stars and Stripes that my unit gets for news and current events. Being detached from modern news mediums is part of the job, and I expect Stripes to be abreast of the world’s happenings.

In the Aug. 11 issue there were multiple articles on serious international issues in Liberia, Jakarta, Iraq and on the Israelis and Palestinians. But I was more than disappointed to see that the most important thing to Stripes wasn’t these issues. It was the story “Air Force back on track for fitness test” (Aug. 11). It was about the Air Force’s new physical training program.

Does anyone really care so much about the Air Force getting a new PT program that it should overshadow world events, including American soldiers in combat? Since Stripes caters to servicemembers, does Stripes really think they want to read about airmen running laps or current events shaping the world around them?

Most soldiers tolerate Stripes because it’s the only media we can get a hold of. But I think Stripes’ values need to be reevaluated. Deployed soldiers yearn for substance in Stripes. Instead, it’s filled with human interest nonsense that doesn’t affect anybody except apparently the Air Force.

So when Stripes’ editors get together and decide what to print and where to place it, they should please keep in mind the readers who want newsworthy articles instead of pages filled with airmen on treadmills.

Spc. David C. Ratliffe
Baghdad, Iraq


Reserve your criticism

On behalf of all Reserve and National Guard soldiers and airmen serving on hardship tours around the globe, I’d like to thank the writer of the letter “Don’t like it? Don’t re-enlist” (Aug. 13) for sharing his low opinion of us and his disdain for our individual concerns. His extemporaneous wit and well-placed sarcasm, depicting our civilian lives, families and careers as nothing more than “frat parties” and “Mr. Bean’s sociology midterm exam” really showed us the error of our ways.

To answer the writer’s questions: Yes, we all signed up for military service because we thought the money was good. From my own personal experience, the military is a great source of supplemental income to my part-time civilian job shoveling animal excrement at the local zoo. It really helps when it comes time to pony up my share when our frat hosts another kegger.

After having served or watched colleagues leave to serve in Bosnia, Kosovo, Haiti, East Timor, Somalia, Desert Shield/Desert Storm and in other contingencies, it perplexes me that we were all so shocked to be asked to serve in Afghanistan and Iraq, too. I guess we should have taken the past 15 years of conflicts as a hint that another round of deployments might be around the corner. I can’t explain how we were all so naïve as to believe that this time the Pentagon would pardon us from the obligation we agreed to fulfill.

I’d also like to express the shame and guilt we all now feel for placing our families in this situation. Since I feel my soldiers should share the same self-control and foresight as the writer, I’ve ordered all my married soldiers to file for divorce when they return home. This will allow their spouses to remarry people outside the military who can better provide for their families, lest we get deployed again. I’ve also ordered all of my married and unmarried soldiers to lead lives of celibacy from this day forward to ensure that they will not again place a dependant in a situation in which they don’t have at least some control.

I hope these ideas catch on in other units and in our sister services so that in the near future the military will appear to the casual observer as nothing more than a bunch of nuns and monks running around with assault rifles and machine guns.

I’d like to thank the writer again for so aptly illustrating how meaningless our civilian lives really are. His opinion has been heard! From the writer’s position in Misawa Air Base, Japan, where he’s allowed to wear civilian clothes, enjoy running water, shop at the local post exchange/base exchange, take in a ball game or get a beer with his buddies and sleep comfortably in his own bed at night, he of all people has earned the right to criticize.

1st Lt. Charles Unger
Camp Speicher, Iraq


September 3, 2003

Not complaining

This is in response to the letter “Quit sniveling” (Aug. 12). I’m a 23-year veteran of the active duty Army and National Guard. I’ve been deployed to Bosnia and places I wish to forget. I agree with the letter writer that as noncommissioned officers we need to stop complaining and whining. We need to act like leaders.

I’m stationed in northern Iraq. The writer is missing out on all the fun here. Too bad he’s at Camp Doha, Kuwait. Where else in the world can one sleep on dirt or wooden floors and watch insects crawl across the floors, tent mates and ourselves? But I’m not stating a grievance.

Air conditioning? Not around here. We have electric fans that move hot air around when the power is on. We’ve gone through six generators. It’s something about the dust and heat that’s caused them to stop working. Again, I’m not criticizing.

I spend quality time with my troops. We stand in line to eat, shower, use the latrine and shop at the post exchange. I wouldn’t miss it for the world. And if we don’t feel like eating in the dining facility, we can go over to Burger King. Oh, I forgot. We don’t have a Burger King. My mistake. But we do have sun-baked Meals, Ready to Eat. Oh, what a treat. But I’m not complaining.

I look after the morale of my troops. I make sure they call home when the phone is working or e-mail loved ones when the system is working. Both the telephone and e-mail are great devices when they work properly. I’m not whining either.

The local population entertains us with nightly mortar attacks, sniping and ambushes. They go through a lot of trouble to do that. But I’m not complaining.

The mail? Well, let’s not beat a dead horse. Once more, I’m not grumbling.

Live like a civilized human being? The thought never entered my mind. We have it so great here in Iraq that I feel bad for the letter writer. And to think we get paid to do this. But I’m not finding fault.

Did I mention the lovely aroma of burning waste? It makes my eyes water to think about it. The Korean rice fields have nothing over it. Again, I’m not being a grouch.

As I said, we NCOs need to support our chain of command by holding them accountable to correctly find out when redeployment is going to happen, inform the troops and then make it happen. We NCOs are the backbone of the Army, and this backbone is hot, sweaty and worn out. But once more, I’m not complaining, criticizing, expressing dissatisfaction, finding fault, or bellyaching at all.

Sgt. John Epperson
Camp Anaconda, Iraq
Telephones

I’d like everyone to know about AT&T and the military. I’m currently assigned to the 253rd Transportation Company from Cape May, N.J., that’s serving in Iraq. While in Mosul I was able to use the telephones to call my family in the United States. Now AT&T has removed those phones and put in a new tent with phones. But these phones have connection fees. With a 100-minute phone card I’m only able to make a six-minute call. We don’t make a lot of money and shouldn’t have to worry about phone fees.

AT&T doesn’t help soldiers. Instead, it’s running a business as usual. Unfortunately, we don’t have a choice of which phone company we can use.

We’re doing an important job here by keeping our freedom and fighting for the greatest country in the world. But we don’t have good sources of communication when we want to call our loved ones.

Spc. Orlando Miranda
Iraq


Retention

I’d like to comment on the letter “One-year deployment too long” (Aug. 5). The writer had the courage to write what the majority of us are feeling here in Iraq. He is absolutely correct about retention. When my contract expires, I’m gone. I know I don’t plan to let the Army take another year of my life. Six months can be forgotten, but a year will never be forgiven.

I want the writer to know that he indeed feels the true pulse of the troops. I appreciate the fact that someone does. I can only hope that he’s not punished for telling it like it really is.

2nd Lt. Nicholas Bradford
Iraq


We're prisoners

I’ve been in the National Guard since 1977. This is my first deployment. I always thought that when we were activated we became regular Army — an “Army of one.” I received mobilization orders on Feb. 10. These are the only orders I’ve been allowed to see. I know we have orders to be in country because one of my soldiers had to get medical help back at Camp Arifjan and he was given a copy of his orders. I’ve asked my commander and first sergeant about these orders and have been denied. I’ve had several other problems with them and have been denied to see my command sergeant major and inspector general.

My men ask me for guidance and I’m limited because my senior leadership has failed me and my men. Here at Tallil Air Base in Iraq, the National Guard units are run by politics, just like back home. The Army has rules to keep politics out. But the Army of one doesn’t apply to the National Guard.

I want to go home. My wife sent a letter to our governor back home, and I have a letter in response. The response says that there’s no stop loss. Yet when my men’s expiration, term of service is up, they’re not allowed to leave.

We’re prisoners here. I haven’t been allowed even one day off since I’ve been deployed. All we want is a date — something to look forward to. My wife also wrote to senators and even to President Bush. None of these people seem to care about our fate.

Sgt. 1st Class Michael Cranfill
Tallil Air Base, Iraq

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

13. Holy CHEET

what a collection!!! Thanks!

[lebkuchen]

19. The Denver Post editor was impressed, too.

I think he'll vote Kerry despite his paper's endorsement of an insane person.

[Chili]

72. thank you for that fantastic list of letters...

Wow.

The election: John Kerry's confidence within the last 2 days is unmistakable. I don't see bravado or wishful thinking, I see the eyes and smile of a man who has a clear knowledge that he's going to win. Add to that the obvious attitudes of pundits on the networks, and I think it's not even going to be close.

[Milo_Bloom]

10. Kerry w/ 311 EVs

Logical analysis:

Bush is not doing well in the polls in terms of keeping his support high and these polls DO NOT COUNT the mobile phone people and new voters who make up a SIGNIFICANT portion of the electorate (at least 15%). Kerry has a LARGE lead with these two groups, easily giving him enough votes to win the critical swing states.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

16. 311 EVs would make my heart sing

I would tell that story to my grandchildren and great-grandchildren. I would probably be muttering on my deathbed "311, 311" with a great big grin on my face.

Thanks!

[AnIndependentTexan]

11. Kerry and Texas is going blue

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

23. That's the attitude!!!!

[Warren DeMontague]

14. I've turned off Cable Shit News for a month.

I guess I'll have to watch something tomorrow, but as long as they're trying to save the shrub I refuse to participate.

If you only watched cable news, you might really believe that Bush is up by, what, six points?

Fucking ridiculous.

Who's going to win? It's going to be close. But I think Kerry's going to win. I really do.

And four years ago I had a sneaking, sinking suspicion that Bush was going to win. (Little did I know he was only going to "win")

Anyway, this feels more like 1992 than 2000, to me.

:)

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

21. It feels like 92 to me, too

only MORE so.

Thanks! Still gotta figure out what I'm watching tomorrow. I hate TV.

[grace0418]

15. Kerry

People don't register and vote in record numbers to keep the status quo.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

18. DAMN good point.

Damn good. And I agree, they don't. History proves this.

[Sara Beverley]

74. You got that right.

And many of those Evangelicals are "stealth" Kerry supporters.

[grace0418]

92. Thanks

We can all dance in the street simultaneously.

[Joe Turner]

97. good point, they don't

record numbers means change is in the air.

[Technowitch]

17. Kerry, massively, due to insanely high voter turnout

And I'm sticking by that, no BS.

All signs point to a Kerry blowout landslide.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

27. Watch out

you said the "l" word.

;)

[wellstone_democrat]

20. Have to say that I do think it is going to be Kerry, and...

by a wider margin than anyone thinks (outside of DU that is)

I've been hesitant but seeing the ramp up of anxiety on various (usually) overconfident websites and groups of Replicants, there is definitely a momentum going for Kerry

Plus, I've never thought that the polls made sense: caller ID and cell phones as primary phones are never in the mix and their numbers are hard to pin down. The polls are wrong I'm thinking (with the help of a Poli Sci colleague who is expert on the matter). I think there will be surprises tomorrow in a few states---if not "blue" then definitely a "bluish purple"

Definitely the popular vote, probably the ev by a wide margin.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

26. You're saying

Kerry will definitely get the pop vote and probably the EV, right?

I'd agree with that. He BETTER get the EV!!!

I've never paid much attention to the polls myself. The only one that counts is tomorrow.

[TSIAS]

22. Slight lean towards Kerry

I'm not as confident as many on this site. I can envision a number of scenarios where Bush wins a razor thin popular and electoral vote victory. On the other hand, there are just as many compelling reasons that suggest Kerry will win.

Like most people are saying, this election does come down to turnout. I'm typically wary of relying too heavily on new voters. Traditionally, they have not voted in large margins. I do think that it could change this election, since intensity appears to be at a high level on both sides.

As for television, I'll probably have to watch one of the networks. I expect all of them will call states at roughly the same time. I'm sure DU will have plenty of links available for state-by-state returns, but massive traffic could slow it down. If I had to choose, I'd go with CBS and Dan Rather.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

32. Thanks for the recommendation

and the honest analysis. It helps! Cheers! To victory!

[TSIAS]

47. :)

I'm feeling great about today. Two weeks ago, I thought Bush was going to win. After the Osama tape on Friday, I was thinking that Bush would take it. But Kerry's the type of politician who's hard to put away.

More than anything, I like seeing Bush's polling around 48 or 49. In a normal year, that would mean the incumbent's in trouble. But if our GOTV is even close to the hype, it could spell disaster for Bush.

[livinbella]

24. Kerry will squeak it out - he will win

I work at a Dem office in Wisconsin.
We will turn out the vote.
We will give you Wisconsin.
I feel a surge of Dems that will not be denied.
They will cheat, we will still win.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

34. You bring up the cheat factor

and I wonder if out turnout will make their cheating moot.

[American Tragedy]

45. According to my personal electoral counter we gotta have wisconsin

in almost every plausible scenario that I have mapped. Dammit, get your people out there and win it for us.

[mike from ri]

65. Wisc has same-day registration

and is located near a large source of Kerry volunteers--Illinois. Wisc. will go Kerry by virtue of huge turn-out.

[SeanQ]

25. Rural republican NH - Dixeville Notch ... is a TIE!!

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

30. What is Dixeville Notch?

And why is it a tie?

[SeanQ]

42. First place in the country to vote.

Voring record was in another post, but basically a very traditional rural new Hampshire town, leans way republican. 92 was like 20 Bush 2 clinton, 96 was 18 Dole 8 Clinton, etc. (32 registered voters in the town).

[mike from ri]

66. see my post later in this thread

for a fuller expalantaion of Dixville Notch's special status.

[chyjo]

28. Kerry will win

not by a landslide by any means. but clearly the winner up with 2.5% of the popular vote and winning upsets in arkansas and colorado, as well as taking Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Newhampshire, Pennsylvania,Iowa and Hawaii. Jeb cheats to get big brother Florida but it is just not enough to change things.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

38. Thanks

I think you are probably pretty dead on with your state analysis though I will still hope for FL. It would be a nice payback for 2000.

[4morewars]

29. If all the votes are counted....

Kerry in a landslide !!!! If the supreme court decides, well you know how that ended last time.

The Daily Show will be my TV choice, 10:00 PM EST. Before that I'm going with C-SPAN.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

46. Ok

I will do CSPAN too then, I wasn't sure what they were showing.

The Daily Show should be a hoot. Comic relief.

[milkyway]

31. Kerry with a minimum of 317 EV

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

43. Wow

sounds good to me. Is that a gut feeling or based on something you've observed or????

[milkyway]

82. If we win all the states we are in good position to win, we'll be at 311.

This includes all of the big 3: Florida, Ohio, PA. Also all of the second tier: Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. And we hold New Hampshire, Hawaii, and New Mexico.

I think that we'll get all these, and Bill Clinton will win Arkansas for us, which brings it to 317.

I've been following the polling data a lot. Even using this info, things look good for Kerry. But these polls are underrepresenting Dems. Even the best of them only follow the 2000 turnout. Since 1988, Dem voters have outnumbered repugs by 3-5%. It's going to be more this year. Many on the other side have no idea what they are in for tomorrow (but Rove and their top people must have known for weeks). Dem turnout will blow them away, especially in Florida. Also, independents are going strong for Kerry, by 6-8%.

I felt months ago that the majority of Americans had decided they don't want george bush back as president. But they were hesitant to move to Kerry. The first debate put an end to that. The undecideds and independents have grown comfortable with the thought of John Kerry as president, and they are moving that way.

[Laelth]

33. Predicted Kerry Big on Friday ...

My prediction hasn't changed, for all the reasons listed above and more.

See Laelths Election Projection for complete details and analysis.

And if I really take my Dem. hat off (and I don't like doing that--it's very comfortable), then I'd say I might be wrong about LA. But otherwise ...

Kerry in a landslide!

:dem:

-Laelth

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

48. Good site, thanks for posting it!

I like your prediction!!!!

[Laelth]

55. My pleasure.

... and thanks! :D

:dem:

-Laelth

[dave502d]

35. Kerry Wins.

The people i see standing those long lines don't look like the GOP to me.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

41. Thanks Dave!

[Walt Starr]

36. Let's see, Dixville Notch was Bush 21 Gore 5 in 2000

Dixville Notch went 15 Bush 15 Kerry 1 Nader this year.

We're gonna win, BABY!

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

40. Can someone tell me what Dixville Notch is?

That's the third time I've seen it mentioned!

[mike from ri]

52. a small hamlet in new Hampshire's far north country

whose claim to fame is early voting and prompt returns. They open the polls at midnight. all citizens vote. it is a local tradition. since everybody in town has voted, they are able to close the polls a few minutes after opening. with only 30 voters, they manage to get 100% turnout. there is a rule that a polling- place can close early when everybody in the precinct has voted. thus, the prominence of dixville notch returns in both general and primary elections.

note, the place also boasts a world-class resort hotel.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

90. Early Voting has now rendered Dixville Notch an anachronism,

although it always was really. Who cares about this burg when like a third of FLA has already voted by now.

[jfk2004]

37. JK 405, BUSH - 133

.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

49. I swear to all that is good and holy

if I see those numbers tomorrow I will faint dead away.

Thanks!

[NightOwwl]

39. Kerry will win big.

Bigger than anyone imagined.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

50. From your keyboard

to God's ears....

[bush equals idiot]

44. They don't have a

clue about the tidal wave of young Blacks, homeless, hip hoppers, MTVers, this usually totally uninterested group of disadvanted people that are going to bum rush these polls today.

They just don't have a clue. It's going to blow the doors off this election for Kerry.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

53. Did the homeless register to vote???

I hadn't heard that, though I know interest is way up among the other groups. And I say GOOD!

[bush equals idiot]

73. Yes, there were rapper groups going all over

the poor neighborhoods in the streets and registering the homeless. They can use the address of the homeless shelter as their address.

[richmwill]

51. Ok, here is my HONEST opinion...

Throwing off all partiality I have in my body- it really is too close to call. I can see Kerry winning tomorrow night, I could also see Bush winning tomorrow. If we get the expected massive newly-registered voters, young people who only use cellphones and therefore haven't been able to be polled, to go to the polls tomorrow and vote- this thing is ours, easily. However, if the "Christian Right" can get their people out in force, then I have a feeling that I may end up sick tomorrow night. It's all on a few states, as we all should know- Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan. Whoever they go for will win it. However- even if you're in a "safe" state, still- get out there and VOTE! I'll be driving down to my voting site tomorrow, even though I live in New York and it's "safe" for Kerry. I don't care how "safe" it is, I'm still voting. If I lived in Texas or Utah, I'd still go out and vote. NONE of you have any excuse to not vote, as long as you're registered.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

57. Yep

I'm in TX and Dems here are FIRED the hell up.

Thanks for your partiality. It's hard, isn't it?

Ug.

[demwing]

54. Kerry with 284 EC

Hawaii -- 4
California -- 55
Oregon -- 7
Washington -- 11
New Mexico -- 5
Minnesota -- 10
Wisconsin -- 10
Iowa -- 7
Illinois -- 21
Michigan -- 17
Ohio -- 21
Pennsylvania -- 21
New York -- 31
New Jersey -- 15
DC -- 3
Maryland -- 10
Delaware -- 3
Connecticutt -- 7
Massachusetts -- 12
Rhode Island -- 4
Vermont -- 3
New Hampshire -- 4
Maine -- 4
----------------------
TOTAL............284

We lose Florida, Virgina, Missouri, and Colorado

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

62. I can live with that

Thank you!

[SoCal]

56. I feel Kerry will win...

1. Higher than expected turnout already proving true. A good indicator for motivated voters wanting a change.
2. MTV - It seems like they have really done a good job motivating young people to vote and they're in favor of Kerry by about 10%.
3. The Cell Phone voters many of whom are young -see #2- not counted in polls and favor Kerry by 15%(Zogby).
4. Dems are more involved in protecting voters this election and won't stand for the same cr8p this time.
5. The economies of some of the swing states are much worse than the rest of the country.
6. Kerry was going to just 2 or 3 states for the most part the last few days while Bush has been dragging himself all over the damn country. I don't think the Bush campaign knew where he should go so they're hoping they'll get lucky somewhere. If they were confident they would've just picked a couple states and dug in.
7. The media (even many Repubs) seems to be slowly conceding a probable Kerry victory and I doubt they would do that unless they're hearing positive things for Kerry/negative things for Bush.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

59. Great list

thanks for posting it. And hey welcome to DU!!!

[Festivito]

58. Silent Right vs. touch screened Young and dumb.

The silent right tend to play games with pollsters, then suddenly their church-email votes appear election day. They are weary of abortion and only slightly incensed by gays. They will not be as strong this cycle.

The cell phone crowd is not easily counted. Young and impressionable they can just as easily side with silent right. Not as big a win as some might hope.

It's Kerry up to here.

BUT, touch machines that default to Bush votes, that's the kicker.

So, I'm guessing, not surmising. Bush by a little, or Kerry by a lot depending on those machines.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

64. Thanks

your post had me all over the place, emotion-wise!

LOL!

[harpo]

60. based on much data analysis I did a while back - Kerry 374 / Chimp 164

[mike from ri]

61. seriously 321 EV for kerry; 54% of popular vote

turn-out, tun-out, turn-out.

[Oddman]

63. everything points to a Kerry win

all the polls move to Kerry

all the new voters go Kerry

[tinrobot]

67. Kerry, because WE have the power.

Sorry to steal a phrase from Dean, but it's true.

We actually won the last election with the most apathetic voting population I've seen in a long time. Now, four years later, we're the most organized and motivated Democratic party I've ever seen. We haven't lost anyone from Gore, we've only gained people, passion, and the will to make this happen

I honestly do not see that level of passion on the other side.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

69. You make a good point I hadn't thought of!

Thanks! I am smiling!

[lakeguy]

68. kerry landslide EV

320+

[lilsourgoose]

70. President Kerry

It makes no logical sense that Chimpy could improve on his pathetic vote count from 2000...it can only be worse for him.

[nomatrix]

71. People are pumped in the crowds

showing up at the Kerry rallies. Tonight C-Span estimated 60,000 in Ohio. People standing in line 3 to 6 hrs. early voting. If anyone can heal this nation now, it can be Kerry. I personally don't want to hear the crap from the GOP. They had it all...ALL, and made a mess, unlike anytime in our nations history. Cheney packing his bags for Hawaii tells me he knows what's coming.
Here's a tip off. When Kerry got Bruce Springsteen standing up to be counted. Music will make or break you.
I don't care how many moral majority votes * gets. (Don't tell me you're a Christian, let me figure it out for myself.) If they are really praying, maybe they will be enlightened. They might get corporate, but many are disillusioned with the stock market and out of work.
We have a mission. The youth has a mission. This country needs to be restored to sanity, and Kerry is the one to do it. There is so much more that he has going for him, over Gore. Not having Lieberman is one. Edwards brings youth and vitality. Good looks too. Frankly Kerry has become very appealing, warm smile and understanding eyes. Mrs. Kerry has international appeal as well. Who doesn't want to see this country returned to it's founding principals?
Tomorrow believe. Keep believing. Don't watch the talking heads. Do something for this cause. I will be on the phones at the Kerry Campaign, because I want to be around the "happening". Tell people to bring enough I.D.'s license, utility bill with address on it, a book to read, water, whatever. Vote with a friend. Make this an event you'll remember. Make a time capsule with a note of how you felt waiting, newspaper or clippings of events from these last days, things you want to see change, and what you can do to make it happen. Bury it, pack it away, give it to your kids for when they or their kids grow up. Then pray that they never let an election be just another day. May we all never forget how important we stand up to be counted, and never surrender.

[bush equals idiot]

75. Oh

and Eminem is supposed to have 30 MILLION FANS.

Can you imagine how many of them are now motivated to vote by that video? I'll guarantee you, no poll has tapped into that little surprise.

[Elidor]

76. NADER by a LANDSLIDE!!!

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it. :evilgrin:

[NinetySix]

77. Honestly, Moonbeam

Given the already apparent voter turnout, one of the largest in living memory, I have to say Kerry.

There's a reason that politics have turned so ugly in the last couple of decades: it's because Republicans have finally figured out that they are a minority party, and that vote suppression is the only thing that can give them the offices they seek. If all elections saw a 100% turnout, Republicans would lose 100% of the time.

Bush's only hope (as that of all recent Republicans has been) was that the campaign would turn so dirty and ugly that voters would stay home in disgust, and his base would turn out in their usual high percentage. It hasn't worked this time.

I wouldn't lie to you. Door, meet ass.

[ekwhite]

78. Kerry 311 - Bush 227

I'm going with the Meta-analysis of State polls by Professor Sam Wang of Princeton University has Kerry 311, Bush 227 with high turnout, and Kerry 50%/Bush 48% in popular vote, with the other 2% going to Nader/Badnarik/etc.

This appears to be a sophisticated and impartial analysis of the polling data. Of course, in this election season, any analysis, no matter how sophisticated, could be wrong.

So I did a gut check, and I'm feeling a whole lot better about Kerry's prospects than I ever did about Gore's. I think he's going to take it big.

[goodboy]

79. kerry.big. (nt)

[jab105]

80. Honestly, yesterday I was saying 279-259 for Bush...but there has

been a definite swing towards Kerry...and I really really dont want to jinx this, but I think that he could pull it out with a win in OH...and get the whole thing...

I'd love a FL win too, the ONLY reason I dont think that will happen is because Jeb is governor...

[Lone_Star_Dem]

81. From what I have seen and the people I have touched this campaign

I would say Kerry.

It looks like the massive amounts of new registered voters indicate the people want a change.

The war in Iraq has come back to bite the President on the butt a few too many times.

The American economy has been hard on the middle class voter and is frightening to the young just starting out.

The staggering deficit is not the legacy today’s parents want to leave to their children.

Americans who travel abroad have seem first hand how poorly this Administration has handled foreign affairs. (My daughter joined in the demonstration during Bush's visit to the Vatican this summer while she was in Rome)

Compound all of these factors with the successful campaign his opponent has led against him.

I think the writings on the wall. I believe the turnout tomorrow is going to surprise the media and the Bush campaign. I believe there are enough people out there that fall into these categories to cause Bush to lose.

And that’s the way it is, Tuesday November 2, 2004.

[goodwalt]

83. Kerry 325 *218

New registrants, cell phone only votes, 3 hr. long lines in FL and record expatriate interest. Make that 338 if we pick up VA.

[Proud liberal Kat]

84. Kerry for this combination

Gut Instinct

Little bit of personal stories of Republicans for Kerry, supported by people of that distinction at the Kerry Rally in Manchester, NH yesterday.

The elated smile of my daughter when she sees Kerry and says Gerry!, Mamma, Gerry!

The fact that bush* has such a low approval rating for a sitting President and that bodes badly.

I think new registrants for Kerry are more likely to vote, somehow unfortunately I think that hate is a stronger motivater than love in who you vote for in elections. I think we have hatred of bush* sealed up all over the reverse on the other side. People are pissed and they want to kick ass and take names later today!

The fact that when it comes to who to vote for this Presidential election my Dad and I can smile and discuss and agree a rarity in our debates!
Kathy

[Hatchling]

85. Newbie here for Kerry..

I'm an older student at a junior college and every where I went on the campus today, the young men and women were fired up about voting...for Kerry! I haven't seen this kind of spirit of activism in young people since the sixties (when I was one!) The intelligent, thought provoking conversations I heard were just thrilling.

[newyawker99]

101. Hi Hatchling!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[drdtroit]

86. Kerry in a LANDSLIDE!

Upward of 130 million people are going to vote and that doesn't bode well for the simian master and his brood.

[Chichiri]

87. Kerry by 100 EVs, minimum. No bullshit. eom

[LSK]

88. after watching Kerry rallies this past week, is there any doubt???

80,000 in Madison Wisconsin?
60,000 in Cleveland?
20,000 in Pueblo, Colorado????????????

You cannot deny what the people really want!!!!

[djack23]

89. Kerry WIN

Electoral Votes
Kerry 311
Bush 227

Popular Vote
Kerry 50.6
Bush 47.1

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

91. Kerry, by 2% Popular and 300ish EV's.

[Bozos for Bush]

94. KERRY!

As long as the machines don't cheat us.

First signs of the night? Pennsylvania, and a Virginia surprise.

[Skittles]

95. I feel that Kerry will win the election

who will be in the White House next year is another story

[peabody71]

96. WHAT!!!! KERRY IN A LANDSLIDE!!!!!!

[TriMetFan]

98. Can We All Say: KERRY KERRY KERRY

[xequals]

99. Kerry 52, Bush 47, Nader/other 1.

I'm going on a combination of gut instinct, polls and the fact that there is so much energy on our side.

Historically an incumbent with approval ratings and re-elect number consistently below 50% have always lost big. But factors such as 9-11 and a bitterly divided electorate will help Bush to lose by only a few percentage points.

As long as we GOTV, honestly, I don't see how Bush wins this one.

[PerfectSage]

100. Kerry will Win

No doubt in my mind since the debates. Every American who saw the debates, on an unconscious level, knows that Kerry is clearly the Alpha male. They always win.

Kerry's margin of victory? 310+ EV. I'm confident Bush would have to have the results of at least 2 states overturned to steal the election. GOTV will pay off.

K/E 8 Mo' Years :party::toast:

[arKansasJHawk]

104. Armageddon 2K4

I think it's Kerry in a walk (a little bit of a rocky walk, but a walk, nonetheless).

I have a feeling that tomorrow morning, or maybe next week sometime, we'll all be laughing about the doomsday scenarios that some people have been obsessing over the last few days. Does anyone but me remember Y2K? The media loves a shitstorm, even if they have to invent one. Unfortunately, sometimes a gullible public is all too eager to smear themselves with the crap that comes out of their TVs.

Everything about this election favors Kerry. Sub-50 approval for Bush. HUGE turnout. An angry, energized Democratic base. Millions of pissed-off Floridians to swing that state, and the election, to Kerry.

[PerfectSage]

105. arKansasJHawk: Welcome to the wonderful world of DU

K/E 8 Mo' Years :party::toast:

[ronnykmarshall]

102. NIXON IS THE ONE!!

:silly:

[rjbny62]

103. just look at these two faces

and you will see that the writing is on the wall....they've been told

photo taken in Crawford after they voted for themselves

[cheshire]

106. KERRY/EDWARDS straight up

[GreenPartyVoter]

107. Kerry by a country mile. I think people are ready for a change

------------------------------------------------
Would Jesus love a liberal? You bet!
http://www.geocities.com/greenpartyvoter/

[KingChicken]

108. Kerry straight up, everything is aligned, everything points to Kerry!