Kerry rapidly closing the gap in NH - down by only 10 - Clark slipping

[DJcairo]

New ARG NH tracking poll

Dean 28%
Clark 22%
Kerry 18%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[poskonig]

1. Are we looking at a Kerry *sweep* ?

That would very be interesting if Kerry won IA and NH.

[bearfartinthewoods]

18. Edwards has almost tripled his numers this week

can't wait to ssee what happens next.

[janx]

2. If the MOE is 4 in this poll,

then Kerry and Clark are tied.

[Tim_in_HK]

3. Huh? Umm . . .

Not really.
By your logic, then Clark is beating Dean (26% to 24%) . . .

But no question that Kerry and Edwards are showing some traction, while Clark is down a bit and Dean is definitely losing people.

[lancdem]

5. It looks like the trends in Iowa

are showing up in N.H. May the best man win!

[lancdem]

4. And Clark and Kerry are 1 and 2

among undeclared voters. If they turn out in high numbers, that will increase Clark and Kerry's chances of winning. Remember, it was nonRepukes who gave McCain his upset win in N.H. in 2000.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. "Kerry was the big winner as the week ended among voters that shifted"

While Clark finished closer to Dean on January 16, Kerry was the big winner as the week ended among voters that shifted (undeclared voters first shifted to Clark at the beginning of the week). Kerry picked up 4 percentage points from Democrats (which gave him slightly less than 3 percentage points overall) and 17 percentage points from undeclared voters (which gave him slightly more than 5 percentage points overall).

This table shows that about 63% of the volatility in the race during the past week was due to shifts among undeclared voters and it could be argued that by the end of the week the news from Iowa was having a greater impact on those shifts than the news from New Hampshire.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[JI7]

7. you react to polls too strongly

.

[DJcairo]

8. kick

[jpgpenn]

9. Your analysis doesn't wash

First off Kerry was once the lead man. He has since steady fallen lower and lower. If he has in fact nudged up a bit, it would be more accurate for you to have started your subject heading with something to the effect of, "Kerry regaining some of his major losses"

[DJcairo]

10. Polls form two months ago don't really count

Everything has changed and whats important is who has the momentum going into teh final week and it is clearly Kerry in NH. A second or first place finish in IA could spell real problems from Dean and Clark who have been annointed by the media as teh frontrunners.

[jpgpenn]

12. 2 months? I was talking from

the beginning and what is time frame are you basing these comments you mention on?

Once again you make a comment that Kerry has momentum going into NH. What you should be asking yourself is WHY did a son of the New England area fallen so sharply to begin with.

[jpgpenn]

13. "annointed"

with a comment like that I see you didn't watch the major media reports too often. Clark was beaten silly from the very beginning. It appears now that Dean has had a more thorough looking over from everyone.

So far everyone of the comments you mentioned were more heartfelt thinking then fact.

[Cuban_Liberal]

14. Clark was not 'beaten silly from the beginning'.

Clark has had the kid-glove treatment from the media, unlike ANY of the other Democratic candidates. Clark will now learn what it is to have the media shoving a microscope up your backside, and IMO he won't weather it nearly as well as have Edwrads, Kerry, Dean, et al.

[jpgpenn]

15. where were you?

with off the wall comments like this, there isn't any point in repeating what iv'e already posted here.

[Jack_Dawson]

11. You call that slipping?

I'll take slipping like that any day.

[sandnsea]

16. Clark doing GREAT!!

Some people really do come around here just to cause dissension. Not sure what the real motives are, but I do know some people really are doing it. Probably not very many, but some people, just saying. You know, some people.

[jpgpenn]

17. kudos

[SahaleArm]

19. Tale of the Tape - Kerry taking from Dean

For example, in the tracking ending January 16, 19% of likely Democratic primary voters registered as Democrats say they will vote for Wesley Clark. This is unchanged from the January 9 results (0 change - Clark was at 19% on January 9 among Democrats). Among undeclared voters, 29% say they will vote for Clark. This is an increase of 5 percentage points from January 9 (Clark was at 24% on January 9 among undeclared voters).

Among Democrats, 33% say they will vote for Howard Dean, which is down 2 percentage points from January 9 (Dean was at 35% on January 9). Among undeclared voters, 15% say they will vote for Dean, which is down 21 percentage points from January 9 (Dean was at 36% on January 9).

...

While Clark finished closer to Dean on January 16, Kerry was the big winner as the week ended among voters that shifted (undeclared voters first shifted to Clark at the beginning of the week). Kerry picked up 4 percentage points from Democrats (which gave him slightly less than 3 percentage points overall) and 17 percentage points from undeclared voters (which gave him slightly more than 5 percentage points overall).