Bush's Margin May Be Smaller in TEXAS!!!

[liberalpragmatist]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/01/politics/campaign/01texas.html

Bush Victory Seems Certain; Margin Doesn't (NYT)
By RALPH BLUMENTHAL

Published: November 1, 2004


...if the president's victory on Tuesday in Texas is not in doubt, sparing Texans an onslaught of television commercials, his plurality may be trimmed this time, some experts say. That would have implications for his popular vote nationwide and other political races in the state, including some fiercely contested Congressional contests.

"There wasn't that big a margin last time and he's not going to come anywhere near that," said Richard Stein, a professor of political science at Rice University, who said he had seen a "phenomenal" surge in voter interest in the election, whatever that might imply.

Richard Murray, a professor of political science at the University of Houston and a leading Texas pollster, said Mr. Bush's prospects in the state had diminished. "He's clearly not running as well as last time," Professor Murray said.

In 2000, Mr. Bush beat Al Gore in Texas by 59 percent to 38 percent, with Ralph Nader taking 2 percent of the vote.

This time, with Mr. Nader not on the Texas ballot, Professor Murray said some polls had projected a percentage in the mid-50's for Mr. Bush, with a likely margin of 600,000 to 800,000 votes over Mr. Kerry, rather than the 1.4 million of 2000.

"We continue to see him getting 5 percent below the vote in 2000," he said, with stronger showings in rural Texas and weaker support in Austin and other metropolitan areas.

***

The article goes on to say that Democrats and independents are highly motivated and unlike 2000, when Texan Democrats and Independents broke for Bush, they're antagonized and likely to vote Kerry.

[bluestateguy]

1. I want this state targeted in 2008

And I want Democrats to launch an all out push for white conservative evangelical voters in the South too.

[LiberteToujours]

3. We don't need or want christian evangelical votes

Their values are not our values.

[AnnitaR]

14. I am a "born again christian"... so you don't want MY vote?

Please for the love of God don't judge us all by the actions of some.

I am not one of the crazy fundies you see swarming around Bush. I loathe the man and wish him to burn in hell. I can be a christian and a democrat.

My values ARE DEM values!

[harpo]

2. don't forget the 733,000 new registrations since 2000

[arcos]

4. I hope this will force DeLay out! n/t

[Liberal Mommy]

5. Remember we are not all...

Christian evangelicals here. LOL I'm located north of Austin (15 mins) and I've seen a quite a lot of support for Kerry here. :)

[girl gone mad]

6. Yes, but Austin is an island of reason..

in the sea of madness that is Texas.

[Lexingtonian]

7. yep

Solid Democratic support is increasing at a rate of 1% a year in Texas.

Gore underperformed, but Sanchez got about par with 43% in '02. Kerry should hit 45%.

Tick, tick, tick...the next five or six years will see Texas changing. You know, become
part of the United States.... :D

[VOX]

8. Make the Lone Star State blue again -- it is possible!

Maybe not this time around, but it is an incremental process, with time and good effort, Texas can move into play in the national elections once more.

:thumbsup:

[cheshire]

9. Bush felt the need to stump while he was there today.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

10. I think by 2008 we'll see Texas become a swing state, if not a blue state

Really it's due to the pro-Democratic latino population that is rising faster than the non-latino population groups.

[AnIndependentTexan]

11. been trying to tell you texas is going blue

Also trying to sleep, but having lots of trouble tonight. Every time I keep trying I toss and turn thinking about tomorrow.

[MagickMuffin]

12. I'm from Texas

and what I don't think people understand is most Texans won't get off of their lazy non-voting asses. I think that Texans are still liberals at heart, but they just don't understand what's at stake.

Although I think this election will prove that "we are mad as hell, and were not going to take it anymore". I know a lot of people who are doing something about it this time around. It is imperative that they do so. Not everyone here appreciates that the Repubs have been trying to take over the Lone Star State.

I am one of those people. I am a Proud Liberal, and I will always be one until my last breath.

[HR_Pufnstuf]

13. You are exactly right MagickMuffin

A lot of the dead are from there too.

Damn, had I seen that Graphic of Bush in Cardinals outfit, I would made sure many copies had made it to Minute Maid Stadium during that Astros-Cardinals series.

That would have pissed off the B's.

Shucks.

[MagickMuffin]

15. I posted the pic several; times here on DU

FYI: the flags are not just a series of flags, they are flagged draped coffins of the "fallen soldiers" who have died while Bush plays dress-up...