Warning: in 2002 the early election day "insider numbers" were terrible

[Awsi Dooger]

DUers were quoting Drudge and Rich Lowery of the National Review, supposedly with hot tips from exit polls at actual precincts. No doubt that will be repeated today, probably earlier with more frenzy and more sources.

A few estimates were accurate in 2002, such as Chambliss with a lead over Cleland in Georgia. But mostly I remember the ones that didn't threaten the actual margin:

* McBride only down 2 to Jeb in Florida, providing instant false hope here. He lost by double digits

* Strickland ahead by 19 or some ridiculous figure in Colorado. Allard won by 5 or 6.

* Bowles big over Dole in North Carolina, high single digits. He lost by similar

* Kathleen Kennedy Townsend winning in Maryland. She lost by 3 or 4.

There may be no indication the numbers are from a representative precinct, and not one that favors one candidate by significant margin.

I'm working GOTV out West and need some sleep. Likely I'll inherit the national result or trend, exhausted after 12+ hours.

Just win baby:)

[bluestateguy]

1. I know

But some fool will leak the exit poll results to the Internet. Drudge will put up that red siren and it will spread around the internet like gossip at a junior high school. And some fool here at DU will also probably post the exit poll results too.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. That's the most accurate prediction I've seen all year

Hour after hour. One thread after another. Rejoicing and despair. Disbelief or premature celebration. Crosschecking with equally unreliable sources.

That's why I posted this thread. Especially for DUers who weren't here in 2002, and will accept the afternoon numbers as gospel.

Oh, and another safe prediction: every telecast will report MASSIVE TURNOUT! That will finally be true this year, but it's an inevitable cliche beginning of every presidential election day.

[regnaD kciN]

4. I just hope we don't have an experience like 2002 tonight...

Back then, it seemed like the election was going to be a tossup, with possibly some Democratic gains. Then, as the results came in, it started becoming clearer that virtually every contested race was going to the Republicans. :-(

We can't let that happen again, and what contributed to it was low turnout. GOTV, everyone!

[Awsi Dooger]

6. I remember; DU turned into a virtual ghost town

Regulars were saying good night very early. After the early governor results from Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois, nothing went right -- or should I say left -- for hours.

Only a few of us were posting regularly all night. We were finally rewarded when Tim Johnson pulled out a comeback win over Thune in South Dakota, via several uncounted Indian precincts at about 7 AM Eastern.

[radfringe]

3. for what it's worth

on the drive home from work yesterday, I flipped the radio station over to Limbaugh...

for the few moments I listened to him (before I :puke: 'd ) -- he was ranting about the poll numbers, most of them showed a Kerry win -- and Limbaugh was in the process of disecting them in order to spin them as being erroneous and rigged by Democrats/liberals/bush*-haters etc.

on previous shows where polls showed a bush* lead -- he smugly smirked and gushed over the polls

no surprise there

however, his ranting yesterday had a tone of desperation and attempts to supress a panic mode on his part. he's running scared

[Awsi Dooger]

5. All the GOP talking heads looked worried Monday night

And the Dems smiling and confident. It was very obvious, to the point if I had awoken from a coma and hadn't seen a single poll I would have thought Kerry was up by 10.

Some of the GOP apologists were even estimating what a Kerry presidency would be like. A very short honeymoon was the consensus.

Per usual, Chris Matthews offered the most idiotic anaylsis. He said Bush is a brilliant politician, who knows exactly where everything stands in the race, and if re-elected he'll learn from his mistakes. The first step will be reaching out by putting a Democrat(s) in his cabinet.

Exit, stage west.

[Radio-Active]

7. A "Democrat" in Bush's cabinet

like Zell Miller, perhaps?