WAPO POLL-Kerry Leads In Every Region But The South

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/polls/2004302/q3_lean/region/index.html

What does that mean?

[LiberalVoice]

1. He leads everywhere north of south.

east and west too.

[George_S]

9. LOL

[kayell]

2. I think * maybe in for a few suprises in the South too.

No way to be sure of course, but *s support is weaker than he thinks, thanks to all the factory closings and jobs shipped overseas. An awful lot of his base here may just not bother this year. I would not be at all surprised to see a couple of solid red states not so solid anymore.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I wish that was true....

Dixie is pug country with the exception of Florida which resembles California in temperament more than it's neighbors Alabama and Georgia...


I'm praying Bush's pop vote numbers are coming from inflated leads in the south..

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

5. This is true

when my husband was out shopping yesterday, he spotted an old van with a battle flag of the army of northern VA in it (some erroneously call this the Confederate flag). He was stunned to see the Kerry/Edwards sticker on the bumper!

Bill Clinton coming back home has meant a big boost to Democratic spirits here in Arkansas, and newspapers are predicting the second highest voter turnout in history-over 70%. Only time it was higher was in '92, when turnout was over 80%.

[doni_georgia]

7. I know several republicans in SC who are not voting Bush today

My husband's family are all traditional republicans and several of them are sitting this one out in SC. My father-in-law still hasn't made up his mind whether he will vote for Kerry or stay home. He has never once in his life voted for a Dem, so I won't be surprised if he just sits this out. Either way it really says something about Bush. Last time we talked to dad he had expressed that he knew Kerry would be better for him in his retirement (coming in December). I also think that Kerry stands a good chance in Virginia and West Virginia and North Carolina isn't completely out of the question. Bush's strongest support is in GA and Alabama. But what does one expect from the armpit of "Dixie." (Before I get flamed - I am a native Georgian and my mom's family is from Alabama, so I can say this).

[kayell]

10. The states you listed are the ones I also think could be a possibiltiy

for Kerry. In other words, while I'm certainly not counting on them, I sure wouldn't be shocked if they went Dem. I would love to see the faces of repukes if it happens though. :evilgrin: Louisiana and Arkansas are 2 other possibilities.

I do think that even if all the Southern states stay red, they will show much, much lower percentage spreads that the repukes expect.

[Merlin]

3. This unlocks the mystery of the lopsided WP polls -- and it's good news!

The mystery is there is a huge Bush surplus in the south, and a modest Kerry surplus everywhere else. In the aggregate, Bush leads in popular vote, but where it matters--in EVs--Kerry has the indisputable edge.

And that doesn't even count those the pollsters are overlooking this year: the newly registered, and the landline-less cell owners.

[displacedtexan]

6. We didn't spend much $ in the South, either.

This looks BAAAAAAAD for the BUUUUUUUSH*!

Folks, read this carefully. You'll see why Bush* has been polling higher than his actual national numbers: if he gains 2% in Texas, it get lumped into his national average!



If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans, John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents? (likely voters)
Responses by Region
East Midwest South West All
Bush and Cheney 42% 42% 59% 46% 49%
Kerry and Edwards54% 54% 39% 52% 48%
Nader and Camejo1% 1% 1% 0% 1%
(VOL) Other 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
(VOL) Neither 1% 1% 0% 1% 1%
(VOL) Would not vote0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
DK/No opinion 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%

Source: A Washington Post tracking poll representing data collected by telephone Oct. 28 - 31, 2004 among a randomly selected national sample of 4,009 adults, including 3,511 self-identified registered voters and 2,904 likely voters. The margin of sampling error for results based on these three groups is plus or minus 2 percentage points, and slightly larger for subsamples. Interviewing was conducted by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

[0007]

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