Matthews Says They Will Know by 3:00 This Afternoon

[DemocracyInaction]

Heard Matthews on Imus say that (after prodding) that they know by about 3:00 p.m. est who won because then they get the stats on voter turnout, some exit polling, breakdowns of whether Blacks or young are voting, etc. but, of course, cannot announce and have to wait state by state. He also said at the beginning that this whole thing is in the hands of the 18-29 year olds IF they turn out and will wait in line and endure the hassels they will get (exactly what I said yesterday---I hope they hang in there and know what to do when the republican pigs go after them). Sooooo, anyway, start watching Matthews about 3:30 and listen to which way he blatehrs. He does not want to be on the wrong side. He wants to be "the one" with all the great knowledge. Maybe we can read which butt he's kissing and if you see a lot of Kerry butt kissing, you know we have it.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

1. What an asshole for even saying that

[blueknight]

2. was it decided before 3 oclock,

last election?

[DoYouEverWonder]

6. It's already been decided

Everybody knows this is going to be a Kerry Landslide.

[0rganism]

3. And sometime in December the courts will finish sorting it out

*snark*

[DemNoir]

4. I really hate him

He and the rest of the media Jerkocracy think this election is all about them.

[Fluffdaddy]

5. Matthews is a straight up guy. He's a Kerry guy

[George W. Dunce]

No he is not a straight up guy

Not even close. Check out Media Matters for America and you'll see his ugly mug all over the place.

[flygal]

7. my mom said faux is trying to disuade voters b/c of long lines...

She watches to make fun of them, but this pissed her off.

[fugop]

15. Let 'em!

Hell, let Fox dissuade their viewers. We know who watches it!

[flygal]

19. duh, of course :)

[Carolina]

21. when you've been pissed off since 12/12/00

a long line means zip. We Dems will pay any price and bear any burden to get rid of Bush. A long line and potentially waiting hours to vote is small potatoes compared to the travesty of the past 4 fucking YEARS!

I love that your Mom can watch FOX to make fun of its FOOLS and TOOLS; my blood pressure can't take it.

PS: in my red state, SC, I arrived a hour before the polls opened and there was a decent line (meaning ~30 minute wait), BUT as I was leaving the line had grown dramatically! Turn out is key and we will not be turned off or turned away.

[punpirate]

8. If you didn't believe that...

... Matthews was an asshole before that statement, I certainly hope you will after it.

Votes count. The count will take time. Even on the east coast, the polls won't close for several hours after 3 pm.

Matthews has shilled for Bush for years, and it doesn't make a whit of difference now that he's hedging his bets. He's already shown the American public what he's made of--he's a shit sandwich in a suit.

[Shopaholic]

9. I posted this in another thread but I'll repeat it here---

This was a copy of an internal memo from MSNBC that was posted on TV Newser.Com:

"Exclusive: MSNBC Memo Reminds Staffers To "Be Cautious" On Election Day

An abundance of caution will rule today at all the networks. An internal MSNBC memo obtained by TVNewser outlines the network's guidelines for characterizing the race:

"It may be appropriate to say 'George Bush has a strong lead here' or 'John Kerry is clearly ahead here.' But, until the polls close, we should be cautious about wording such as 'It looks like Bush is going to win' even if this is conventional wisdom. On-air guests should be reminded that they may not characterize a race until the polls close. However, they can discuss information from knowledge prior to Election Day, but their comments should not reflect knowledge of Election Day exit polls. We should be extremely cautious to be sure that we are not forecasting the outcome of the election."

The memo states that "no exit polling information which might show who may win or lose shall be disclosed until the scheduled poll closing. This includes the reporting of voting trends of men and women or any other information which would allow our viewers to calculate who is ahead or behind."

[DemNoir]

10. They cant help themselves

By late afternoon you will be able to pick up on little cues from them, it happens every election.

[punpirate]

12. I guess, then, that...

... we'll find out if Matthews & Co. are capable of subtlety. :P

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

11. We knew Clinton had won by 3:00 in the afternoon in '92.

Exit polling isn't perfect, but if it shows somebody winning by 5 or more percent consistently, it's almost certain that guy will win.

Edited to change subject line.

[Lex]

26. Exactly.

There was a scene in The War Room that clearly showed Stephanapolous getting the exit polling around 3 pm and he said "Oh my god!" and went to show Carville and Begala.

They knew they were going to win. They went for a celebratory "Busch" beer after that.

[LisaL]

27. Clinton was way ahead.

It's a lot more difficult if the election is close.
We didn't know for a long time in 2000.

[Lex]

33. Matthews was implying, then, that this election won't be close.

And that's why he said what he said about mid afternoon exit polling telling the story.

[DemocracyInaction]

13. Brockow (sp?) just said the same thing

He said around noon to 3:00 they start getting the data but cannot let anyone know what the trends are, etc. So, like I said, start watching the body language. There is no way they will all be able to do a straight face. I'm listening and not watching and I think the other one with him that said the same thing was Shiffer??? -- anyway sounded like him. So, apparently the data starts setting up by that time. Anyway, if you start seeing it in their faces, manner, either way, please post.

[gordianot]

18. They know it now.

There are internal polls at all of the networks.

Both campaigns have a good idea, will know for sure with exit polls. That is why in 2000 the networks saw Florida go for Gore and caved when they saw fraud. The question of the day is how close.

GO VOTE

I'm headed out to drive voters to the polls.

[RafterMan]

14. Question

Will foreign news organizations be bound by the same restriction on when they'll report?

[Roland99]

16. What a Lying Sack of Shit! How can they Know??

With the huge amounts of early voting??


--------------------------------

http://www.conjur.com/politics - Why George W. Bush is WRONG for America

[gordianot]

24. The magic of statistics, sampling, standard deviation.

Get a large enough sample validate your study and you will know.

There is a corporation that provides canned answers for business. There are predictive questions your dentist can ask you and tell what the odds you will stiff them on your bill. All brought to you by the magic of behavioral and statistical analysis.

They know the results now fairly closely, and have good reason to shut up. One thing I have noticed they are not dissing Kerry as much as in the past. Maybe a good sign.

[Lex]

29. Exactly.

Mid afternoon exit polling will tell the story on THIS election because I don't think it will be very close.

[Skarbrowe]

17. I keep telling you people Kerry told Tweety long before he was ahead

in the primaries "Hey Chris, I'm going all the way with this" (paraphrasing) Tweet (geez, years ago that was my nickname) said he thought it was odd the way Kerry said it to him. Tweety just shrugged it off, but I have never forgotten it.

;-) ;-) ;-)

[wellstone_democrat]

20. Absolute Bullshit on several levels

They want to suppress that west coast vote and even the afterwork east coast and midwestern vote. Also, they can comfort themselves with the "it was the *special interest/uniformed* voters who did this

IT MATTER THAT THEY VOTE, BUT THIS IS A BROADBASED EFFORT.

The seniors I'm picking up in an hour to go to the polls in 29 degree weather with driving sleet aren't going out in this mess here in very safely "red" Lubbock County to all vote for the status quo. I guaran-damn-tee that.

Remember the: "well if Blacks didn't vote, Florida would have gone for Bush* in a major way" as if they weren't Americans? Same crap here with the whining (at least locally on the news) about the "one issue" or "confused about the draft by the internet!" or "uninformed 20 something!" This is America, all of it speaking and we will be heard.

[Pacifist Patriot]

22. I despise this line of thinking.

I'm also upset with local pollsters for releasing exit polling data on the early voters around here. I wish they weren't allowed to open their mouths until after Hawaii votes.

[dubyaD40web]

23. Did anyone hear Joe Scarwhore concede the election

last night to Kerry?

[Goldmund]

32. No, what did he say?

[susanna]

35. No...I missed that.

Seriously?

[LisaL]

25. Why even vote?

We should just ask Matthews...
What a joke!

They might not no for months, let alone today by 3 pm.
:eyes:

[gatorboy]

34. Why even vote? Exactly!

They are trying to call it for Bush early, hoping Kerry supporters will give up and not even tke the time to vote!

[fear the donkey]

How do they factor in early voting?

They can't exit poll that for a month

[seraph]

28. Let me please say, "Fuck You Tweety"

Thank You.

[Goldmund]

30. That simply cannot be true

If there's a landslide either way, then they can know early in the day... But if it's close -- say that the results mirror Zogby's map which says that whoever wins Florida wins the election -- then how can they possibly know? If the spread in Florida is like it was last time (500 something) then it's theoretically impossible for him to know. It's bullshit.

[gatorboy]

31. This is bullshit!!!!!!

Along with the Drudge 3:00 story. They are gonna try and say Bush won it as early as possible so people will not feel the need to stand in those long lines!!!!

:mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

[Lex]

36. They won't call the election until after the state polls close.

But the campaigns and the newspeople will know around 3pm what the exit polling is showing.

If Kerry is way ahead in exit polling, then they will know.

If it is really close, like in 2000, they might not know early.

[Nordic]

37. Matthews is a blowhard and an asshole

I don't care which way he leans, he's a jerk.

[depakid]

38. These whores will do anything to help Republicans

if they can't sway the presidency, then they'll try to sway other races... don't trust 'em for one second.

[fishwax]

39. that's bullshit

they have a good idea, sure, but so does the rest of the country, based on the same information. It's not like us ("peasants under glass") have no idea about what the turnout is.

But Matthews just likes to believe he has inside information.

[Blue_Roses]

Don't believe Matthews 'cause Josh Marshall at TPM says:

(November 02, 2004 -- 11:05 AM EST // link // print)

"Before we get started today, a quick election day survival guide.

First, the final polls are trending to Kerry. I'm not just speaking about the public polls, but the private ones -- specifically the Republican ones. Does that mean Kerry will win? No, not necessarily. It's too close for that. But the Bush campaign has a lot of incentives to try to get this one into overtime.

--snip--

To start with, for instance, don't rely on right-wing agit-prop sites for your news about alleged instances of 'voter fraud'. Wait till you hear real information from real news outlets."

snip--

Second, exit polls.

Exits come out in a several batches over the course of the day. Democrats, on average, tend to vote later in the day than Republicans. Not always, but that's the pattern, for fairly straightforward demographic reasons. And for that reason their exit poll numbers tend to get better over the course of the day. That was strikingly so in 2000. So if you see less than perfect numbers plastered around in the early afternoon, don't let that rattle you.


http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

[Born_A_Truman]

40. So when do they count the absentee ballots?

There are tons more absentee ballots this time around. Do they count them first or after the polls close?