Was ignoring Iowa a fatal flaw in Clark's strategy?

[ringmastery]

If Kerry wins Iowa, he's going to go into New Hampshire with a ton of momentum and he's already starting to rise there.

The last NH poll from ARG I saw had Kerry nipping at Clark's heels:

Dean 28%
Clark 22%
Kerry 18%
Edwards 8%
Gephardt 3%

[poskonig]

1. Clark's strategy is sound.

A second place showing or higher in NH will give him momentum for February third.

The risk, however, is that Dean does not win Iowa. Then Clark can't grab the "anti-Dean" mantle.

[Bucky]

7. That's how I felt last week. This week I'm seeing stuff differently...

If Dean were a stronger candidate, then Clark's no-show in Iowa would have been the perfect move. It was still smarter to stay out, I think. A 4th or 5th place showing would have hobbled his campaign, since Iowa has turned into a real horse race.

My thinking now is that he's still in a better position than Kerry. Most New Hampshirites have looked at him and moved on to other choices. But the positioning time in New Hampshire with only the pulseless Lieberman campaign to contend with is still a strong move. It won't place him as the only anti-Dean, but if he can take first place in NH, then Dean is wounded mortally and the Clark campaign is the strongest internet-based campaign in the field.

Kerry's surge is trouble for Clark, but Clark's never really been the anti-Dean.

[Maddy McCall]

19. Other candidates have been organizing and doing PR in Iowa for a year...

Clark only announced in the fall. He would not have been able to get the FUNDs to get an organization up and going in time for the Iowa caucus.

His decision was sound. He has dedicated his time since he announced to organizing in NH, and a win in New Hampshire, followed by wins in southern states (which is what I predict) will make him formidible.

[Kahuna]

21. Riiight!

go Dean!

[leyton]

2. Clark's got a strong base in NH, I'll bet

He's been focusing on that state, so I'll bet his supporters are not easily swayed by people coming out of Iowa. Besides, the two primaries are so close to one another, I doubt that NH results will be much affected by the outcome in Iowa.

[sandnsea]

3. No

Iowa is just one state, there's a whole bunch more to go. He's a General and the last thing he would do is make a strategy error. He'll be fine.

[Cuban_Liberal]

4. It may well be his undoing.

By allowing Sen. Kerry to seize the 'Big Mo' that even a second place finish in Iowa would give him, he suddenly becomes worth a second look as the 'anti-Dean'; furthermore, he and General Clark are scrapping over the same voters--- those who believe a military background is essential in a nominee.

I'm afraid Gen. Clark may have played his cards badly by not contesting Iowa.

[bigwillq]

5. I don't think it was flaw but

Clark has been out of the media swarm and I think the other candidates are more fresh in some people's minds. However, Clark will come surging back for NH and Feb. 3. I agree is strategy is sound.

[dave29]

6. You just don't skip Iowa

It may seem politically advantageous to skip it having just entered the race and limited resources, but storylines come out of Iowa.

"Kerry finishes stronger than expeceted"
"Edwards has momentum"
"Dean wins by larger margin than expected"
"Gephardt still in the race"

You can campaign all you want in NH - fact is you have to battle the headlines out of Iowa as soon as Iowa is over. And that cna be tougher than it looks.

[bigwillq]

8. My only peeve with Clark not in Iowa

is that although Lieberman has bypassed Iowa at least he was there and he is my least favorite choice. To me, it shows that Lieberman is committed to serving the people even though he knows he has no chance in Iowa.

[mikehiggins]

9. Calculated risks are calculated risks, but sometimes they are necessary.

Who expected Kerry to rally so well at this late stage in the game?

Clark apparently figured he could use the period when all the others were tied up with Iowa to make strong inroads into NH. That part of the strategy seems to have succeeded. What will happen if Kerry rolls into the state after winning, or coming in second in Iowa? Anyone's guess.

One thing to keep in mind, however, is that the "winner" of that contest might not be known for several days, particularly if the race is as close as it now appears. Moreover, the value of "winning" Iowa by 1% or so casts a pall on the whole process. If the difference between the "winner" and the 4th place is within five or six points then actually nothing will have changed from the situation this week.

New Hampshire will then become the first state in which a really clear winner might be found, and the Iowa quartet will have to continue their struggle against each other, as well as trying to roll over Clark's position.

Originally it was thought that Gephardt or Dean would be slugging it out at the end, and that Dean might be the winner, gaining momentum for the New Hampshire campaign. This might still be the case, but the question of momentum is now an open issue. If you barely beat three other candidates, just how much momentum can you claim.

Clark's strategy may yet play out to his advantage, in a way that was unanticipated when the plan was first devised. As a general, I'm sure he would appreciate that.

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. No, Clark played his hand well

Given the cards he was dealt (repercussions of a very late entry into the race) Clark has maximized his hand. I plan a later related post later, but briefly now: Iowa will be a historical footnote AFTER the NH primary. It does help set the stage for New Hampshire though. If Kerry comes in third in NH he is essentially out. If Clark comes in 4th in NH he is badly wounded. Clark can survive coming in 3rd in NH because that means, regardless of whatever momentum supposedly came out of Iowa, he still will have have beaten all but two of the following men there: Dean, Edwards Kerry and Gephardt, (plus Lieberman of course). That will reshuffle the deck for the next round of cards with Clark still at the table. If Kerry beats Clark in NH but Clark is still in the top three he remains a player, it will be "remembered" that Kerry always had some big advantages in NH that initially made him the strong favorite there.

[Tom Rinaldo]

13. Kerry was shrewd though

Kerry strengthened his own hand by shifting most of his focus to Iowa. Kerry was going nowhere in NH and that was killing him in Iowa too, a negative spiral. He was facing near certain elimination from the field. By doing strongly in Iowa, Kerry restores his credibility, which thereby helps him in NH also. This is a fascinating election to watch unfold.

[elfin]

11. By starting so late, he had to take the risk

rather than bleed his resources ($ and people) and use the time to solidify an organization and raise his recognition.

I do wonder what the numbers between him and Kerry would have looked like in Iowa. Perhaps the New Hampshire results will give a clue, factoring in the Mass. proximity/recognition of Kerry.

I also wonder if people having a hard time choosing between Clark and Kerry flip to Edwards instead just to decide something that isn't Dean.

(I don't see Gep. going much longer, even tho I like him as well)

[LuminousX]

12. No, it was a very strong move on Clark's part

He avoids scrutiny as the other campaigns beat up on each other and he can consolidate forces in NH. Historically, Iowa means very little except media attention. Clark has down other things to guarantee media attention during this time, so he is sitting pretty good.

[WI_DEM]

14. it could be a double whammy for Clark

I still think Dean is going to pull out a narrow victory in Iowa. But Kerry and Edwards are going to do well enough to stay in the race (I think Gephardt will leave the race). This is a double whammy for Clark in NH and SC.

Dean is the issue in NH and his base support is still solid at 30%--and will be reinvigorated by a Iowa victory. This means that the anti-Deans will have three credible candidates to rally behind: Clark, Kerry, and Edwards. Already Clark is showing some losses to Kerry and Edwards is on the move. For Edwards he has to come in at least fourth in NH to claim a solid position--it is looking likely he will do so. The race for second (I think) will be between Kerry and Clark which it has been all along. Clark has had NH all to himself for the last month so he has made some gains--this will change Tuesday when everyone will be back in NH.

Looking ahead to SC a Edwards who has performed credibly in both Iowa and NH will be looking for his first win here--also a vital state to the Clark camp. If Dean comes out the victor in both Iowa and NH (along with his DC victory) he will go into the Feb 3rd primaries with momentum as well as lots of money on hand.

[childslibrarian]

15. I read an article in the paper this morning

Where a voter said "I wish Clark was running in Iowa."
If Kerry wins in Iowa,he is getting votes that would have gone to Clark. When people have the chance to vote for Clark, they will. I was an early Kerry supporter who got sick of the doubletalk and put my support behind Clark. There is no comparison. Kerry won't speak straight, nor will he answer a question simply.

[MIMStigator]

16. Clark is Kerry PLUS

eom

[sandnsea]

20. Kerry is Clark PLUS

Beg to differ. :-)

[MIMStigator]

22. you say to-mah-to

I say Clark is Kerry PLUS because he doesn't have a record and AHnold election showed how good that is nowadays, and PLUS he is from the south.

Kerry folk say he is Clark PLUS because he has a record.

Both can beat * so may the best man win because if Dean is nominated we ALL L-O-S-E.

[Maddy McCall]

17. New Hampshire is a PRIMARY and is more important than Iowa...

Until 1988, whoever won New Hampshire usually took the party nomination, and if the party was the party in power, he also took the presidency.

Iowa's track results aren't that solid. Iowa only started mattering, in all reality, in 1976, when Carter beat contenders in Iowa, NH, and then went on to defeat the party in power.

Look at my thread on the history of Iowa and New Hampshire. You can really see trends in the history of who was elected when.

[jpgpenn]

18. far from it