BEWARE of pundits calling election early by exit poll results--TPM says..

[Blue_Roses]

Josh Marshall at TPM says why:


(November 02, 2004 -- 11:05 AM EST // link // print)

"Before we get started today, a quick election day survival guide.

First, the final polls are trending to Kerry. I'm not just speaking about the public polls, but the private ones -- specifically the Republican ones. Does that mean Kerry will win? No, not necessarily. It's too close for that. But the Bush campaign has a lot of incentives to try to get this one into overtime.

--snip--

To start with, for instance, don't rely on right-wing agit-prop sites for your news about alleged instances of 'voter fraud'. Wait till you hear real information from real news outlets."

snip--

Second, exit polls.

Exits come out in a several batches over the course of the day. Democrats, on average, tend to vote later in the day than Republicans. Not always, but that's the pattern, for fairly straightforward demographic reasons. And for that reason their exit poll numbers tend to get better over the course of the day. That was strikingly so in 2000. So if you see less than perfect numbers plastered around in the early afternoon, don't let that rattle you.


http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

[cubsfan forever]

1. Thanks for the info! n/t

Professor 2

[Blue_Roses]

3. this needs to stay kicked through the day

could save someone a heart attack!:D

[pabloseb]

2. Couldn't agree more

The youngs, in particular, tend to vote in the afternoon. And we all know that the difference will be in the young vote.

[July]

4. kick nt

[Connie_Corleone]

5. I hate exit polling!

They should wait until about 6:00pm to announce exit polls.

[Blue_Roses]

8. It's very unfair to those on the west coast

as well as the rest of us!

[AndyTiedye]

9. But Exit Polling Can Help Uncover Electoral Fraud

as long as those doing the poll aren't forced to supress their results
when they don't match the rigged results.

A lot of us would really like to see the "bad data"
that they threw away from Florida in 2000 and Georgia in 2002.

[Blue_Roses]

11. I'm talking about them calling a winner

as far as getting the "bad data" out in the public eye--definitely yes--but I think with Chris Matthews saying he will know by 3 pm by exit polling that he will know the winner is crap.

[Blue_Roses]

6. kick

:kick:

[Blue_Roses]

7. kick

:kick:

[exliontamer]

10. kick (n/t)

[Borgnine]

12. I'm dreading the exit polls.

I know I have to ignore them, but I'm in a very fragile state of mind today.

[slestak]

13. KICK

[Blue_Roses]

14. kick

:kick:

[Bongo Prophet]

15. Double kick for such a clear subject header

:kick: :kick:

[Blue_Roses]

17. thanks

had to work on it a couple of time;)

[vickie]

16. kick

[Roland99]

18. As an aside, closer numbers from early exit polls would bode well

if Democratic demographics mean they typically vote later in the day.!

[cthrumatrix]

19. kick

[MassLiberal]

20. kick n/t

[exliontamer]

21. kick

[Blue_Roses]

22. kick