Final Harris poll Kerry leads FL +4,OH+4,PA+2(SWEEP)

[59millionmorons]

FL PA OH
(1433) (1203) (1218)

Kerry 51% 50% 51%
Bush 47% 48% 47%

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=515

Final ARG FL poll has Kerry leading 50-48

Rumor: Zogby will have Kerry up 3 today.

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

1. Yeah BABY!!!

[4_Legs_Good]

2. Sweet, sweet candy!!!

Woo hoooo!!!

Oh please, please, please, let me have a peaceful night's sleep tonight for the first time in 4 years!

david

[SammyWinstonJack]

6. I hear that!

:-)

[GalleryGod]

7. I'm with you!

My wife is tired of living with a raving maniac:silly:

[TriMetFan]

32. I'm with you too.

My spouse is also tired of living with a raving Democratic maniac too. But like I told her its her fault. She made me this way. She is a Union Rep. and I went from Republican to Independent to Liberal Democratic.:evilgrin:


KERRY KERRY KERRY!

[kranich]

3. New registrants are probaly not factored in

and those will lean Kerry- I say Kerry sweeps all three.

[Lugnut]

4. Oh, man!

I'm chilling the asti right now. :)

[lasttrip]

8. me too. wife and i splurged for tonight, went for the Dom!

:toast:

[leftynyc]

24. Ooooh yummy

Can I come to you house? (kidding although me and my sig other have decided on Dom for a Kerry win and piles of tequila if the unthinkable happens)

[lasttrip]

29. don't worry- you won't be doing tequila shots!

hey-i am from upstate(buf- NFalls). wish there were more upstaters on DU. Have a great night! Anyway.....

:toast:

[cubsfan forever]

5. Harris was THE most accurate poll

of 2000. Hope the record voter turnout continues!

Professor 2

[derbstyron]

9. Shrub: how does it feel...

to be Kerry's beeeyotch! :)

[Gregorian]

10. As much as I want to trust the polls, 4000 out of 35 million is just

too small a sample to mean anything.

I guess I haven't been looking at the sample numbers until now. I don't want to say it's meaningless, but ask yourself the question- how can 4000 reflect the opinion of nearly 30 million. I mean, it leaves an unknown sum of about 30 million people. I mean, it's as though they polled noone.
I'll wait until the exit polls are significant in number enough to be meaningful. I don't know what "meaningful" is. But it's probably at least one quarter of the voting numbers. Just an uneducated guess.

[xrepub]

11. polling can work

Statistically, 4000 is a sufficient sample to determine how 30,000,000 will vote. The problem with polls is not the sample size (though larger samples are better). Polls run into trouble when the sampling is not random, when the questions are biased, when the design is faulty, or when the samplees or samplers lie.

All of these factors are more likely to produce a flawed poll than a limited sample size. All of these factors have entered into the polls we have seen this year.

[Doosh]

12. this is HUGE, Harris is the most accurate pollster

Plus Zogby is whispering about surprises in Colorado and Virginia!!!

[helpisontheway]

13. Wooohoooo

Go Virginia!!!!!! The volunteer coordinator said the campaign's own poll showed K/E up 1 pt!! Please oh please let Kerry win VA!!!

[ktowntennesseedem]

33. Virginia would only need a few points to turn it blue

If it goes for Kerry, I look for the same shift of a few points in other states as well... Might just end up with several surprises tonight!

:bounce:

[kanrok]

14. HOT DAMN

It's gonna be a GREAT night!

[shawmut]

15. woohoo!!

:bounce:

[KittyWampus]

16. Kick

Kick

[gcole]

17. Read em and freep

[Doosh]

18. kick

this is the polls we should be focused on, the most accurate in the bunch. Zogby is too erratic on the state level. There is no way Kerry can be tied in both Virginia and Pennsylvania. If Virginia is tied, then Pennsylvania is at least +6 for Kerry.

[59millionmorons]

19. Kick

Harris is one of the best pollsters in the last two elections

[Roland99]

20. Lookin' good!!!

[Ms.Victory]

21. Love It!!

Chimp is FRIED!!

[LisaL]

22. KERRY/EDWARDS in a

landslide!
:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[sir_arms_50]

23. excellent

Thanks for the updates

[senseandsensibility]

25. Great news!!!Thanks

for posting!:bounce:

[American Tragedy]

26. But isn't all of this within the margin of error?

I don't consider these to be very comfortable leads. I hope like hell that I'm wrong, but for now I am skeptical. I don't think it's healthy to celebrate prematurely.

[Kierkegaard]

38. MOE is a factor, but the tweeners usually break

against the incumbent. The numbers could get a lot more lopsided as the day goes on. No one's celebrating too convincingly just yet. Optimism is good, though.

I just listened to a bunch of local yahoos on the radio at lunch who are predicting an early night for the Scrub. They were busy quoting a bunch of polls, of course any but the ones that have historically been right! They are twisting in the wind, and I smell a victory...

[republicansareevil]

27. I can't get on the site. Too much traffic I guess.

Can someone who's already on there post as many details as possible in this thread?

[Sparkly]

28. Those are some beautiful numbers!!

:D

[Walt Starr]

30. Harris was most accurate in 2000

WAHOO!!!!

[wherewingstakedream]

31. Kick!

:bounce: :kick:

[Canabian]

34. I think I am going to go to bed

Every poll is different and my head hurts.

[jdonaldball]

35. God Bless President Kerry! God bless the United States of America!

[Anarcho-Socialist]

36. Wow, this is great news. Although I would have thought JK will take PA

by more than 2%.

[fishwax]

37. kick

:kick::bounce:

[Eurobabe]

39. music, baby music....