HEADS UP: Hot stuff from Zogby

[WilliamPitt]

Zogby has a scroll running on his website. The scroll reads:

John Zogby: "Watch Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. There may be some big surprises!" 11:43 AM - 11-02-04

We called the folks at Zogby, and according to their numbers right now, Bush is +3 in Florida, Kerry is +3 in Colorado, and there will be a tie in Pennsylvania and Virginia.

This could be excellent news, or it could be a disaster. If Kerry picks up Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia *and* Ohio, you can turn out the lights.

Stay tuned.

[are_we_united_yet]

1. William

-sigh-

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. Did he call the cell phones? eom

[tinrobot]

3. Florida?

We were up in Florida.

Jeb and Diebold are doing their dirty work.

[KittyWampus]

It. Is. Early.

[Jackpine Radical]

48. Is it REALLY early?

[tinrobot]

55. Exit polls from today only?

I'm wondering if it's because the Dems voted early, skewing the exit poll results on election day.

Any statistics on that?

[KittyWampus]

20. It. Is. Early.

[Jackpine Radical]

49. How early is it?

[WI_DEM]

4. This is his final polling?

I think Kerry pulls it out in Pa, but certainly Colorado and Virginia would be excellent surprises.

[fertilizeonarbusto]

5. Kerry will win Pennsylvania

with room to spare.

[aquart]

6. A TIE? Don't make me more nervous than I am.

[prodigal_green]

11. what happens if there is a tie?

[pabloseb]

24. Tie = very close

It's impossible to have a tie in the vote (well, there's maybe a 0,000000000000001 % chance)

[Doctor_J]

7. If PA goes red,

the fix was in.

[Eurobabe]

PA ain't gonna go red.

I know too many new first time Kerry voters and those who voted * in 2000 who ARE NOT voting for *weed this time.

[Phillycat]

No fuckin' way. I'm in Philadelphia and I say it's NOT GONNA HAPPEN!

This fantastic city will DELIVER PENNSYLVANIA TO KERRY. Mark my words. Not on our watch.

[blackcatpgh]

93. from pittsburgh, i agree

just looking at kerry/edwards signs in yards and windows, k/e signs outnumber * signs 30 to 1, easily. everyone i know is fired up AND VOTING, from my 20 to 30 year-old bandmates, to my 70+ year old neighbors.

[Thrill]

8. I thought we would be doing better in FL

GOTV

[harpo]

9. I think we'll take all of those except VA

[ronnykmarshall]

10. I still think we'll get Florida!

[MissouriTeacher]

Surprises in CO and VA...

would only mean a Kerry victory in these states.

[spooky3]

36. Those of us who live in VA have been saying it's closer than the pollsters

believe. But I'm not sure it's close enough.

We understand why Kerry wouldn't want to devote limited resources to us but (as I've posted ad nauseum) I honestly believe that had he and Edwards done so, they would have won the state. Dems here are angry, positive, and active, all at once.

[Eurobabe]

12. ohmi'fing 'GOD if Kerry takes VA.....

I will FREAK!!!

[Jack_Dawson]

25. Why? How many EV is VA?

[spooky3]

27. 13

[Phillycat]

62. 13, but it's historically so red, it's not even funny.

The huge population growth in the DC suburb counties is responsible for the swing to blue. They just didn't think it was going to be enough. If VA goes blue, that is crushing to the Thugs.

[spooky3]

85. but there was not much of a gap in two of the most recent elections

so the signs were there.

Gore might have won had he campaigned here but he still came fairly close.

[Borgnine]

37. Me too!

I know he's got one vote here... mine!

[Doosh]

13. exit poll numbers? or final survey numbers?

Bush +3 in Fla. and tied in Pennsylvania is worrisome, I could live with Florida but Kerry should've sealed Pennsylvania by now. Virginia and Colorado are nice surprises though.

[troublemaker]

14. FL is all about turnout at this point

I don't think FL polling matters any more. (That's the only state I would say that about.) Too much anger in FL.

[TexasSissy]

15. This is bad news, as far as I'm concerned. Losing FL & tie in PA?

Very discouraging.

[kevin881]

81. yes very bad news.

[Doosh]

16. and what about Ohio???

???

[WilliamPitt]

17. Bush +4, according to Zogby

Deep breaths.

[BootinUp]

29. A bit premature

Many voters will be going to the polls after work.

[Doosh]

41. these are not exit polls, they're just final surveys

[BootinUp]

18. Sure would be nice to take Florida, but

CO and VA will do just nicely in its place. :)

[Jack_Dawson]

43. I'd take FL over CO & VA

Cause there's more EV...right J4W?

[BootinUp]

80. Yeah, but I figure there are more

surprises if we can take those others. Like a sweep of the big midwest states etc. I'm still confident we can get FL too.

[Stuckinthebush]

19. Too early to tell

Historically, don't Democrats vote later in the day? If so, then that Florida number will flip.

[newsguyatl]

21. yeh, but if bush picks up PA

we could be royally FUCKED!

[spooky3]

22. HUGE turnout here in Democratic No VA.

[Carni]

23. I think Kerry will pick up Virginia

My mother lives there and she's been seeing a lot of anti-bush sentiment as well as scathing letters to the editor in her local papers for months (and BTW she is in a very rural area! YEAH!)

[Sparkly]

28. That would be *wonderful*

I would LOVE to see Virginia go blue!!!

[bhunt70]

40. I would die. I hope its true (not that I want to die or anything)

[Qutzupalotl]

61. My dad lives in rural Va

and he's been writing some of those scathing letters. :)

[Carni]

86. LOL! His name isn't Colonel Gordon is it?

There is a Colonel Gordon that just rips the wing nuts a new ass in his regular letters to the editor in one of the VA papers.

[Qutzupalotl]

89. No, but I'm glad to hear it!

Virginia will go Blue!

[Blue_Roses]

26. that just made me more nervous

[BootinUp]

32. No shit

Will doesn't want to suffer alone. ;)

[Pithy Cherub]

30. Ok, consider me fried -

only good surpises are welcome today! Thanks Will - my heart is taking a licking but it Kerry's on ticking. :)

[vickie]

31. ARE THESE TRACKING POLL OR EXIT POLL NUMBERS?

[Rose Siding]

33. Is he exit polling?

or are these numbers from conventional phone polling?

[NewJeffCT]

34. Will Colorado split their electoral votes?

If they do, a 1 electoral vote difference between Bush/Kerry could be good news for Kerry.

[pabloseb]

38. No, the ammendment is failing by huge numbers n/t

[William Seger]

54. Yep, last poll I saw, it was failing by 2 to 1

[pabloseb]

35. VA = 13 EVs , CO = 9 EVs

If this is true, it's not such bad news.
But the big question is: is this exit or regular polling????

[Doosh]

44. this is regular polling, NOT EXIT POLLS!

[helpisontheway]

Please..I don't want a surprise with PA..I want Kerry to have it!

[lancdem]

39. That makes absolutely no sense

If Kerry were tied in VA, he wouldn't be behind in FL or only running even in PA. Everything hinges on turnout.

Polls are meaningless now. And Zogby's track record in state polling is decidedly mixed.

[Wat_Tyler]

42. If Kerry wins VA and loses PA

That must be a sign of the coming apocalypse, right?

[KittyWampus]

45. Exactly! FORGET ZOGBY STATE NUMBERS

[Lex]

47. I thought that too!

How could Bush be taking Florida when Kerry's up in Virginia.

Nonsense.

Unless Bush is successfully stealing it in FL.

[redqueen]

46. It is far too early for this.

pff

[helpisontheway]

50. DARN....

ZOgby is now coloring PA PURPLE on the map (meaning Bush has a chance)!!! He is also coloring Virginia PURPLE!!! :-) However, I would not want to lose 20-something electoral votes to get 13. :-(

[republicansareevil]

51. A tie in PA is a bad thing.

Kerry is EXPECTED to win PA, so how can he "pick it up"? Frankly, I doubt these numbers. I would think that if Kerry picked up CO and even VA, PA would be a shoo-in. And conversely, if Kerry loses PA, I wouldn't expect him to pick up CO and VA. I mean it's one thing for Kerry to do better or worse than expected, but I would still expect the states to fall into their appropriate "tiers". (FL is a wild card because of the irregularities.) It's just a question of how far on the tier spectrum Kerry (or Bush) can get.

[treehuggnlibrul]

52. C'mon COlorado!!!! Just waited an hour to vote...

in a smal town in rpug Colorado...

I walked from my house to the polls this morning. Cars parked for a long ways down the road, but no line. Hm. It was held in the meeting room of a local restaurant.

I walked in the door to wall-to-wall people, and a convoluted line that folded back upon itself. Restaurant had free coffee available to all.

My own, unscientific theory is that the people who were grumbling about the long lines were the repugs, and the Dems were smiling and happy to wait as long as it took.

The woman behind me kept muttering comments about taxes -- she made it pretty clear who she was voting for. She said something about the line and I said how nice it was that we were able to wait in line INSIDE, instead of in the cold. She agreed then said, a couple of times, "It's... good... it is, that there's so many people. It's good."

LOL She was really TRYING to convince herself the turnout was good. And I said, "YES, it's WONDERFUL to see so many people voting." BIG SMILE. She looked less than thrilled. Saw a woman with a big */cheney shirt on...but other than that, no one really being partisan, just excited to vote.

I was voter 619 at 9 a.m. I think we have a population of 3000 here. And we did have early voting available last two weeks. I just wanted to vote on election day.

Vote method here is the electornic scan kind -- black marker to fill in the ovals. I have never filled in an oval with more emotion. Filled in an oval to put John Kerry in an oval (office, that is)
Damn. It felt good. Now, off to help with driving...

[William Seger]

63. Good sign: SHORT line in (very Repug) Colorado Springs

My precinct is very Repug and not a lot of younger voters. I got there 2 hours after opening, and I was only voter 210. It was the shortest line I've ever seen there, in 12 years.

[DCal]

53. These are his own phone polls, NOT EXIT POLLS

His state polls have been inaccurate to say the least over the years.

[cubsfan forever]

60. Methinks Mr. Zogby is

tooting his horn a bit too much. Maybe he wants people to pay more attention to him. Besides, it's too late for polls. The only polls that matter are the ones going on in all 50 states.

Professor 2

[Axe]

56. Zogby just updated site -- PA/VA TIED

Get out and vote in PA

[demwing]

57. If We Keep ALL The Gore 2000 States, and Pick Up Colorado...

we are fucked.

That puts the EC in a 269/269 tie, assuming the Colorado "Winners divide the EC" fails. If it passes, Kerry ends up with 265, Bush 273.

Either way, we lose.

Kerry must pick up one of these: New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia.

If we maintain Gore states, and grab either Ohio or Virginia, we can lose Colorado outright, and still take the EC.

[Doosh]

59. Kerry will win NH

[Julian English]

66. New Hampshire, Baby--see the Granite Prof!

http://graniteprof.typepad.com/graniteprof/2004/11/nh_on_election_.html

[Blue_Roses]

58. with all due respect to Zogby--these are shitty numbers and don't reflect

what is really going on--Arkansas by 3%--bullshit! We're in a dead heat here--48-48. We've been busting ass here and it is showing in our numbers. Also, there has been record voting turnout and my spouse, for one, who has never voted in a federal election, voted for the first time this year--for Kerry no doubt. There are many other factors that aren't going into the accuracy of this poll, such as cell phone users only, so I'm not gonna get too worried about it now.

[Oddman]

64. I HATE THIS POST!

Ambiguous data that doesn't mean a thing!

[Mr_Spock]

75. People are desperate for info - like a poll is going to mean anything

in a few hours - whatever, let people freak. The REST OF YOU GET OUT THERE AND VOTE DAMN IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[louis c]

76. William

I've been meaning to tell you,

That I hope that piece of shit, scab, Schilling never pitches again.

I go to about 20 games a year at Fenway, and I will boo him every time I go. He sucks more than the Yankees.

[59millionmorons]

65. That doesnt jive with what I heard

I heard Zogby will have Kerry leading in his final poll (5pm) with Kerry up 3 pts.

[Goldmund]

70. How do you know this?

I thought Zogby was going to take exit polls into consideration, which haven't come out yet...

[Tesibria]

67. ....well

comparing his map now to his map earlier, it's a bit scarey -- but gotta run the EC count and see what it all means.

[American Tragedy]

68. I find it very hard to believe that Kerry will get Virginia or Colorado

[59millionmorons]

69. No way in hell

Zogby is nuts.

[pabloseb]

71. VA I don't think so, but CO is possible

Other polls had the chimp leading by less than 5 points, and Kerry closing the gap.

[carolinalady]

72. Pa will not tie!!!! Listen up people i lived there 37 years

I would love to know where he got his sample from-- the urban areas are strong dem and the whole middle is stron Repub with alot of Dems who swing Repub. all in all the Urban areas far outweigh the rural vote.

[durablend]

79. Exactly...

If he hit the middle of the state for his poll and got lucky on the urban areas, OF COURSE he's going to show it as red (or hinging).

I can't see him already making an accurate prediction with over 1/2 the day to go (and likely a very small sample)

[geek tragedy]

73. Screw Zogby.

Either his national numbers/analysis or his state numbers/analysis are horribly wrong. I'll ignore him either way.

[DemMother]

74. EVERYONE MUST READ THIS POST

Zogby had Gore with a one point lead in California. He won by 12.

I'm off to help increase Kerry's popular vote total.

[VOX]

77. Just added to JK's popular vote in CA, DemMother!

And it felt good!! :bounce:

[amandabeech]

78. There are stories over in Freeperland that the Amish

are turning out in wagon loads in Lancaster County. They seldom vote, and are probably very hard to reach with polling.

Maybe that's what Zogby is seeing.

[HockeyMom]

92. College Students

Posted this on another site. Daughter has friends who live in NY and have registered to vote at their COLLEGES IN PA. They have told her they are doing this because there votes for KERRY will count more in PA THAN IN NY. ZOGBY CANNOT know about THIS.

[Joe Turner]

82. Don't Spaz Out. Zogby has never been accurate in State Polls

His state polls in 2000 were wildly off the mark. Perhaps he is over-compensating.

Zogby's forte has always been accurately prediciting the nationwide popular vote.

And on that, remember what he said, any Bush lead less than 5% is favorable to Kerry.

[Maestro]

83. And Zogby stated on The Daily Show

last week that Kerry was going to win this!

[Joe Turner]

84. You bet, all the rest is just noise....were lookin real good. n/t

[godot]

87. Polls are shite

All they do is give people a skewed and false idea of who may be ahead, or what people are thinking about thus and such, which only serves to reinforce those ideas, or conversely, create an unnecessary fatalism in which people feel powerless to create change. The polls say "this" so why bother? Screw polls. They are rarely an accurate reflection of reality.

[The_Casual_Observer]

88. Zogby is full of shit

He has the inside dope that nobody else has?

Fuck Zogby.

[Dob Bole]

90. They are yesterday's polls...final ones released at 5:30 nt

[TimeToGo]

91. Well

I hope the news is better than that! I don't want a heart attack!

[Anarcho-Socialist]

94. ties in VA and PA don't make sense

If Kerry was going to sneak VA, it would mean a Dem landslide, but to possibly win VA whilst losing PA sounds too far-fetched.