RW Bloggers Desperate: Claiming that K/E Pollster Predicts Bush Win

[Skinner]

Here's the newest meme from the right-wing Blogs:

"JOHN KERRY'S chief pollster predicts a 3-point Bush victory."
Source: http://instapundit.com/archives/018882.php

"Democratic Pollster Predicts Bush Victory"
Source: http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/002962.php

It's crap. They're taking his comments totally out of context, and missing the whole point of the article.

Here's the *actual* article from Kerry Pollster Mark Mellman, in which he predicts a Kerry victory, despite the huge obstacles facing of our candidate (emphasis added):

The uphill fight is impossible to predict now

You, dear reader, have the advantage over me. I am writing this Sunday, before the election takes place. The opportunities for me to look foolish are legion. So I will resist both predictions and triumphalism.

For months, though, I’ve been assessing President Bush’s vulnerability, but win or lose, it is important to acknowledge the daunting challenge Sen. John Kerry faces. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months and they are right.

(snip)

So while Bush faces formidable obstacles, not the least of which is Kerry himself, the senator also faces a strong candidate. Bush is weaker than some other incumbents but much stronger than those who have been defeated.

You soon will know whether Kerry’s appeal was strong enough to overcome the incumbent’s strength. I think I will be smiling broadly. But it has been an uphill fight.

http://www.thehill.com/mellman/110204.aspx

[Skinner]

1. Kick (nt)

[Barad Simith]

2. thanks Skinner

I'm glad I saw it here first, in its actual context.

[Roland99]

3. I heard Rush mentioning this today...I was thinking....WTF?

[wicket]

4. Instapundit is a hack

He sucks so much!

[geek tragedy]

5. This was one of his hack replacements.

He had three sub in for him. All three Repukes, but the other law professor was at least thoughtful and intelligent.

Michael J. Totten is the "I used to be liberal, but now I'm just thoughtful" weenie that wingnuts love to cite.

[pabloseb]

6. Well, that article does worry me a little bit

Not the freeptard response, which is spinning out of control. But I thought that it was the chimp campaign that had the bad (for them) numbers. No it seems that both sides are seeing a very close race.

I'm still encouraged by the huge turnout and think Kerry's going to win! :)

[troublemaker]

11. there are NO BAD POLLING NUMBERS IN THE ARTICLE

It's an historical trend piece that doesn't even allude to opinion polling.

[Pithy Cherub]

7. Thanks for the reality context,

the freepers continue to worship a river in Egypt and we like being in the Reality-based Community.

[troublemaker]

8. Short Version: The article is not about polling and makes no predictions

There is no information in this article about polling, and ZERO information about Kerry campaign internal numbers.

The word POLL doesn't even appear in the fucking article!

He says historical/economic modeling suggests that other things being equal Bush *should* get 51.5, but other things are not equal and he will probably not do as well as that modeling suggests.

[GreenPoet64]

9. Interesting.

[cheshire]

10. Desperation stinks.

[Snivi Yllom]

12. it's not exactly a rosy picture for Kerry

Mark Mellman seems to be forecasting an ugly hard win

Not a landslide by any means.