Beautiful NEW Exit Poll Numbers

[GDoyle]

from Wonkette:

http://www.wonkette.com

The Birdies Sing a Sweet, Sweet Tune
FL: 52/48 - KERRY
OH: 52/47 - KERRY
MI: 51/48 - KERRY
PA: 58/42 - KERRY
IA: 50/48 - KERRY
WI: 53/47 - KERRY
MN: 57/42 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY

NM: 49/49 - TIE

NV: 48/49 - BUSH
CO: 49/50 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH
NC: 47/53 - BUSH


A NOTE ON EXITS/EARLY POLLING: We post these numbers because information wants to be free! Run, information! Run for your life!

GDoyle

[Doosh]

1. CRAP, North Carolina IS CLOSE

[lancdem]

6. And Kerry might pick up Nevada and Colorado, too!

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

10. NC Came within 40.000 votes of going for Clinton in '92

That was out of over 2 million votes cast. It's not as conservative as some of its neighbors.

BTW, I volunteered for the Big Dawg in NC in 92. It was a hoot!

[ogradda]

20. i'v e seen that in a couple other places too

unexpected but pleasant :)

[Sara Beverley]

34. I am so disappointed in AR and AZ

I thought some sensible people lived in those states.

[deadparrot]

2. CO very tight!!

[onenote]

3. I'm sorry - hard to believe new hampshire

But a 17 point margin in New Hampshire? Something smells about these numbers. Let's not get distracted by them. Get Out the Vote!!

onenote

[NorthernSpy]

32. on the other hand, it IS New England...

But a 17 point margin in New Hampshire? Something smells about these numbers. Let's not get distracted by them. Get Out the Vote!!


A Kerry landslide is actually not impossible in New England. I don't know whether a 17 pt margin will hold in NH, but I'm certain that more than a few New England Republicans will be crossing party lines and voting for Kerry.

[prodigal_green]

33. too much fundie influence over the party now

New Englanders don't cotton to that.

[Mojambo]

4. Okay, we've had a sip of sweet water

Now back to work!

[Hong Kong Cavalier]

5. Kerry jumped 1 to 2 points up in Colorado since the first exit poll.

Nice. Very nice.
And dems usually vote later in the day.

Still nervous as hell, though.

[helpisontheway]

12. Why aren't they reporting VA?

[Tesibria]

7. these are older than Slate's numbers -- no ??

[Chichiri]

8. Anybody know what Wonkette's source is?

eom

[theboss]

36. Probably that chick that was banging the Senator

I love Wonkette, but I would take any actual "facts" she posts with more salt than you can fit into the trunk of a Honda.

[Guaranteed]

9. When are these from? nt

[wellstone_democrat]

11. Virginia?

any news on that?

[architect359]

28. I am wondering about that too

No info yet - not even exit polls...

[dolstein]

13. Kerry's down by one in Virginia

NT

[architect359]

29. Do you have a link? Thanks. n/t

[GDoyle]

14. Wonkette

Pretty sure she is pretty connected. She knows insiders.

GDoyle

[Thrill]

15. We're going to get NV

.

[welshTerrier2]

16. What time were these numbers reported ???

and what is the original source of the data ??

all exit poll info being posted should include the time and the source of the information ...

[Cocoa]

17. I'm guessing she means AZ

not AR.

But it doesn't matter anyway, since these numbers mean bupkes.

[jezebel]

18. She put this update "UPDATE: K/B 50/49 in fla at 4:15, says another birdie

nt

[Clinton Crusader]

19. Surprised at AR

They JUST said on MSNBC not 15 minutes ago it was dead heat, so that surprises me. All else very good!

[Guaranteed]

22. Good, we want the national news to keep it "even." nt

[Christiandem]

21. Went to website

Nothing about whether numbers are post or pre slate

[Pithy Cherub]

23. Love these and

may they increase tenfold for Kerry! C'mon voters!

[Daocrat]

24. I guess you know by now this was coming:

Let's always remember THIS: :)

If a favorable exit poll convinces people to skip voting, that exit poll is 100% GUARANTEED to be wrong. Skipping voting due to exit polls is like not bothering to buy a lottery ticket because someone has told you you're going to win the lottery. It doesn't make sense. You CAN'T win if you don't PLAY.

Exit polls can be a self-negating prophecy. If they are a source of encouragement, great, but they are BY NO MEANS a substitute for voting.

If the lines are long, there's always a wall to lean against. We can't afford to lose ONE VOTE for ANY reason.

Kerry in a land... well, you know the rest. :)

(NOTE: I think it would be a good idea to paste this message into EVERY exit poll thread. If you like, feel free to cut and paste this entire text in case I miss any exit poll threads or leave the keyboard. Thanks.)

[Catfight]

25. SWEET!

[izzie]

26. I will not beable to hold supper down with numbers like that.

Can't be

[Melinda]

27. She also posted this disclaimer/clarification:

I have been asked to clarify: The little birdie is not Joe Trippi nor anyone he works with.

In fact, the little birdie is really skittish and not exactly trustworthy in all cases. Please vote, even if you live in PA. These could be total forgeries, designed to keep you from voting. As a friend put it, "The Yankees always figure out a way to win."

UPDATE: Specific objections have been raised to the Minnesota numbers in particular. All with grains of salt. Huge tablespoons of salt.

UPDATE UPDATE: Thanks to the eagle-eyed readers who pointed out that there are TWO Wisconsins and TWO Michigans here. There were two sets of polling data floating around, that's all I can say. Reformatted to make more sense. Oh, and Jonah Goldberg has a point: These may not be exits. They could be internals. That's all I know.

http://www.wonkette.com/archives/a-little-birdie-told-us-024776.php

[sir_arms_50]

30. look at this crap from yahoo news too?

Trying to keep people away?

CBS MarketWatch
U.S. stocks jarred by early call favoring Kerry

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041102/6cb562c64d48cdb2a6603ee143760212_1.html

[no name no slogan]

38. MN is STILL gonna be KERRY COUNTRY!!!!!

The latest Gallup poll showed Kerry with an 8pt lead. Gore won MN by only 2% in 2000, DESPITE a 6% vote for the Greens/Nader.

This year, Nader is a non-factor in MN-- he may get 1%. Despite those who call us a "swing state", this is DEFINATELY KERRY COUNTRY!!!!!

[jmowreader]

31. According to my poll tracker, it's 120-54 Kerry leading

"Rout" is the operative phrase...

[American Tragedy]

35. I would prefer better numbers for Ohio, Florida, and Iowa

Too close for comfort, especially with dirty tricks afoot, but overall it's quite positive.

Sorry, but for the sake of my own sanity and blood pressure, I'm refusing to celebrate anything until this thing is over. I do want to hear about the exit polls ASAP though so I can prepare myself mentally.

[mvd]

37. Still need to GOTV, but..

These facts help support a Kerry win:

- huge turnout

- early voting favoring Kerry in FL

- we seem to be getting more of the Hispanic and Cuban vote in Florida

- Kerry precincts in FL and OH are doing better than they did in 2000, and better than Bush precincts

[Daocrat]

39. Yes, and that's excellent, BUT

The emphasis ALWAYS needs to be on "still need to GOTV" until all the polls are closed.