Are we being ambushed?

[Girlieman]

By bogus exit poll numbers? The feeling of euphoria makes me nervous.

Look I understand as much as anyone. Four years of frustration and the worst administration in the history of the country, we ALL want it to be over and now.

The Rightwingers are reporting different exit numbers and different scenarios. http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp


I don't know what to believe. My gut tells me that the turn out is everything, and that looks good. No great. Huge...

In the meantime, let's not lose focus. We are dealing with a determined and resourceful adversary. I can assure you, the GOP is not giving up, and if we let up, they'll deliver a sucker punch we won't forget for a long time. Remember Bush's most telling freudian slip (paraphrased) "they don't ever stop thinking of ways to harm the american people, and neither do we."

[are_we_united_yet]

1. Could be

That is why I am not celebrating.

[endnote]

2. If you have voted, take a nap, come back in a few hours. My advice

Unless you are volunteering...

[WilliamPitt]

3. A lot of the country hasn't voted yet

Keep the champagne on ice.

[Jawja]

It IS, Will! It IS!

I am cautiously optimistic.

:kick:

[teach1st]

4. I've already pledged

not to open an exit poll thread. Who knows where the numbers really come from. Turnout is key and we seem to be opening the lock.

[kwolf68]

5. Its rope a dope

What could crush us worse than * coming back

[DefenseLawyer]

20. Ropa dope for whom?

Internet political junkies? The media isn't reporting these exit polls. The averge voter has no idea. They have been voting in droves all day because we have the worst president in modern times. The Dude abides.

[jbond56]

6. my guess

the numbers will look better for bush until people get off work then start looking like it did earlier.

[tnlefty]

7. After 4 yrs. of being Bush*whacked, I certainly HOPE NOT. It's early

and I'm as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs, but I'm trying to remain cautiously optimistic. I just keep hoping that the turnout numbers will be in favor of Kerry/Edwards.

[Kazak]

8. Usually...

exit polls drift toward Dems late in the game, so I'm told...

[Lone_Star_Dem]

9. I just don't trust early exit polls

I will feel better when they are from post the 5PM crowd. Having said that we do have the turnout going on. That is a good sign.

[belle]

22. I'm actually happier about the glum Repubs than the exit polls alone

There's a...vibe, I want to say, which I don't believe was there in '02 or '00.

[Carni]

10. Stop being such a girl, girlieman!

Just relax hope for the best and don't look at the exit polls...

Think of it this way, it would be worse if they showed Kerry trailing in a huge fashion!

[A-Schwarzenegger]

25. You took the words right from out of my mouth.

[Carni]

26. Ahhhnold!!!!!!

Get your hand off my ass! (LOL)

[Anarcho-Socialist]

11. I'm not celebrating yet, even though I'm quietly optimistic n/t

[damntexdem]

12. Hey, at this point it doesn't matter what we do --

we HAVE all voted, haven't we?

Unless someone is helping turn out the vote (so is too busy to be on here, anyway), we have no reason to worry.

Now, could fudged numbers be used to reduce Dem voting? I don't think so, because: (1) the turn off is when one's candidate is losing, since silly Americans think there's something wrong with voting on the losing side; (2) so many voters are so mad at Dubya and the Bushistas that if they hear that Kerry is winning, they'll just want to pile it on; (3) all of the media/pollster attention has been proclaiming that the race is a dead heat, making the election more interesting to those who otherwise might not vote; and (4) it's a bit late, given the big wave of early voting.

[Village Idiot]

13. It's hard to find a DIRECT LINK

to ANY RELIABLE EXIT POLL NUMBERS. I've been looking at complete bullshit all afternoon.

If you have verifiable data - and not that shit from Drudge/myDD.com - from NEP, please post a link.

[Girlieman]

14. that's because exit polls aren't supposed to be released

until polls close.

so everything is leaked.

that's my understanding.

[highplainsdem]

15. No. The high turnout is the story here. That backs up the exit polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Xactly...

And Begalla and Carvill were absolutely giddy on Crossfire...


They are far from stupid....

[never cry wolf]

17. A few things to keep in mind...

I am not an expert, by any means, and any polls, exit or otherwise I don't take much to heart. As much as I am dying for results, the only thing official we know is huge turnout.

Also, some exit poll factors to keep in mind:

1. The exit polls do not include all of those who particiapted in early voting ro absentee ballots. - good for us.

2. I read somewhere else today on DU that repugs tend to vote early in the day and dems later in the day. - again, good for us.

3. The exit polls do not take vote tampering into consideration. Many replying to the pollseters may have stated who they "thought" they voted for on the touch screen machines, who knows what registered or what may happen during tabulation. - bad for us.

Strap in for a long night!

[Junkdrawer]

18. Could be a ploy to invest credibility in the exit poll numbers...

If I were managing a cheat, that's what I would do...

[mindfulNJ]

19. It aint over till its over...

eom

[kerry-is-my-prez]

21. Don't know hwat you're talking about. Those numbers are in Kerry's favor.

NUMBERS WE'RE SEEING
WARNING: I'M REPORTING WHAT WE ARE SEEING. IT DOES NOT MAKE IT THE FINAL RESULTS. ONLY THE VOTERS DO THAT. (And excuse cap letters, but everytime I warn, half the readers tell me I should have warned and the other half say I am pathetically desperate.

Kerry-Bush
FL 50-49
OH 50-49
PA 54-45
WI 51-46
MI 51-47
NH Kerry +3

NV 48-50
CO 46-53
NC 49-51
MO Bush +11

[Demfromct]

23. CAUTIOUS

Do not count your chickens before they hatch. I am skeptical until it is called for Kerry.

[TexasSissy]

24. Zogby predicts as of 11/2 about 311 EVs for Kerry. It's JUST a

prediction. He could be wrong. But still,.....there's something out there. Something big.

[4MoreYearsOfHell]

27. Yeah - it's Florida

the bastards are going to try and steal it again...

How is Iowa?

[robertozucco]

28. BEWARE

They want us thinking we've won, so we don't make the effort to GOTV.

These guys will have a dozen gameplans worked out. Repub shows of weakness are almost always a con; these guys are true believers, and if they look panicky it's 'cause they want you to think they're panicky.

VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!

[Catfight]

29. They are trying like hell to make us concede this election, they are

mistaken. Dan Rathers sucks, I'm so sick of Bush Tv.