Exit polls don't show early voting. Fla not really 50-49

[MikeG]

[BUSHOUT]

1. Explain?

[kwolf68]

3. I think what he means is

The polls we see from Florida are not counting early voting results. I don’t know if that’s good or bad

[MikeG]

11. Its good. The lead is bigger.

[BUSHOUT]

20. OH....I think he's wrong though...I read the exit polling methods...

at that main exit poller...the one doing it for all the networks.

They call a percentage of the absentee voters.

[FlashHarry]

4. one in five have already voted in Fla.

Early returns favor Kerry, so the early lead may be higher. Though it will probably tighten as people vote after work. It ain't over till it's over. VOTE!

[The Chronicler]

6. The exit polls don't take into account the people who have been voting in

FL for the past week or so.

[SaveElmer]

8. Exit Polls only count todays votes

Early voting, which was apparently (according to the polls) was overwhelming for Kerry are not counted. So, theoretically, Kerry is farther ahead than the exit polls show.

[tedoll78]

Today, about 70 to 75% of Florida's ballots will be cast.

25 to 30% have been cast already, and most accounts have Kerry leading by about 8 to 10%.

This means that Kerry can actually LOSE today's portion of the voting by a narrow margin and still end-up winning Florida when the early votes are added-in. That's a huge deal.

[fugop]

10. Early voting

I think Kerry was ahead in early voting, wasn't he? Or was that in just some areas?

Anyway, whatever this exit poll spread is, the message just means that it doesn't include the past two weeks of early voting. They haven't been called. Neither have absentees. This is based only on the people coming out of the polls today. So it could be much bigger for Kerry ... or not. (How's that for decisive?)

[Clinton Crusader]

2. How do you know Mike?

[MikeG]

5. Exit polls come from voters who voted today.

[Fluffdaddy]

7. More info please

[Jersey Devil]

That's right - not added in those numbers

nor are absentee votes expected to be heavy for Repubs so it is almost impossible to know what really is going on

[tjdee]

9. So are we better or worse??

Oh lord, the anxiety is starting to kick in.

[Beaverhausen]

13. supposedly early voting in FL heavily favored Kerry

so it looks good.

[trotsky]

15. BETTER

Early voting had Kerry with a 10-point lead from what I heard.

[tjdee]

18. Thanks beaverhausen and trotsky...

I hoped that, LOL.

[guntherconcept]

12. Simple

If (as I suspect) Kerry was kicking Bush's ass during early voting, then expect the 1-point lead in the exit polls to expand when all votes are counted together.

[jefferson_dem]

14. And, as mentioned by another, 50-49 in 2004 is not like 50-49 in 2000

(in raw numbers) given the massive turnout.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

16. How were early voting totals projected?

were they actual counts or just based on party affiliation?
also, the exit polls have a MARGIN OF ERROR! They are represntative samplings, just like any poll.

[grytpype]

17. Right, it's even better, because Kerry won the early voting!

About 51% Kerry if I recall!

[Fla Dem]

19. Exit polls of early voters showed Kerry ahead by large margin.

Don't remember the exact numbers..something like 54-46.

[Jersey Devil]

21. Careful! I also doesn't show absentees

Fla is very heavy with absentees, expected to lean strongly to *. Don't count chickens yet - get out the vote.

[against all enemies]

22. Don't forget 4 years ago. Exit polls got it right till Jeb fixed it.

Make sure all the votes are counted.

[BUSHOUT]

23. YES, THEY DO.......

From http://www.exit-poll.net/faq.html#a13

How do absentee votes affect projections?
In a number of states significant numbers of voters cast their ballots before Election Day. They either cast an absentee ballot or they vote at precincts set-up for voters in the weeks leading up to the election. These absentee/early voters cannot be included in the Election Day. Instead, they are interviewed by telephone shortly before the election. They are asked the same questions as voters interviewed in the exit polls. For the 13 states where absentee voters will be sampled by telephone their results will be combined with those of Election Day voters.

Which states will have absentee voter surveys?
The states where absentee/early voters will be interviewed are: Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas and Washington State. Absentee voters in these states made up 13% of the total national vote in the 2000 presidential election. Another 3% of the 2000 total vote was cast absentee in other states in 2000 and where there is no absentee/early voter telephone poll.

[MikeG]

25. I disagree - read this:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/exit_polls_what.html

[dweller]

24. isn't that the case for all states?

Early voting here in NC is considered absentee.
So the votes today are not counting the absentee, since they are added later??

is that right?

we had over 1 million i think early statewide. (950,000+ as of friday, saturday was last day of early voting)

dp