Thoughts on the Des Moines Register Poll

[WI_DEM]

John Edwards is on fire. In the last Register poll he had 5% now he is in second with 23%. John Kerry also has improved moving from 15% in the last Register poll to 26% first place showing. Howard Dean had 20% in the Register poll in November and has 20% now. Gep had 27% in the November Register poll and is now at 18%.

This is obviously good news for Kerry and Edwards. Not so good news for Dean and especially Gep.

Among those definitlely attending caucus according to the Des Moines Register article--Dean is in second place with 22% but Kerry is in first with 33%. Gep and Edwards are close behind.

If Kerry were to win and Edwards were to come in second it would be a lot of momentum for them in New Hampshire (especially Kerry) and South Carolina (Edwards).

A third place showing by Dean wouldn't be enough for him to withdrawl especially if it is close, but it would be a wound and he will have to really work to keep Kerry at bay in NH--where I think Kerry would move up rapidly probably overcoming Wesley Clark and challenging Dean for the first slot.

A fourth (or even third place) showing by Gep would, imo, cause the Gepster to withdrawl. He is the only candidate who absolutely needed to win Iowa and if he comes in fourth it is curtains.

Still, the poll indicates lots of people could still change their minds up to the very end. In a caucus state organization and voter enthusiasm will be critical. Who will caucus on a cold Monday night after a long day at work or in school? Who has the resources and organization to get their voters to the polls?

This is why any of them could still win this thing. Dean has a great organization and is really working to turn out their supporters. Gep has reliable organized labor behind him. but Kerry and Edwards have something which might be even more critical right now--momentum.

It will be interesting to watch on Monday night.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

1. Although the article lists the number of undecideds - 5% - as an argument

that the contest is still fluid, that seems like a pretty low number to me.
As far as turning out people on caucus night, remember Kerry has the largest number by far of state legislators and other local elected officials endorsing him so they have their local contacts and organizations. Also according to caucus rules, only elected officials are allowed to address the whole caucus.

[Moderator]

2. Locking.

Please post your thoughts here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=128769&mesg_id=128769

Thanks,
DU Moderator

[question everything]

3. Breeze editorial: Primary system out of whack

That's the Daily Breeze that covers Southern Los Angeles http://www.dailybreeze.com/content/opinion/1372544.html

We have nothing against Iowa and New Hampshire. But it is hard to fathom why the 30th- and 41st-most-populous states continue to have such a disproportionate influence over the presidential nominating process.

(snip)

While one in five Americans count themselves as members of racial minorities, only 1 in 25 residents of Iowa and New Hampshire do.

(snip)

There are at least a couple of ways the process could be improved. One is to allow Iowa and New Hampshire to retain their traditional roles, but move California up on the primary calendar. That way, California voters would have considerably more influence on the outcome of races for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations.

Another alternative is to hold a series of four or five regional primaries during presidential election years. The order of the regional primaries could rotate every four years so that there would be no geographical bias to the process.


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I certainly agree with the second proposal.