What if Dean doesn't get 15% in Iowa?

[boxster]

Ok, I'll admit that this is a huge stretch, but considering Edwards rose 18% in the Des Moines Register polls in virtually no time (currently in 2nd, at 23%) and Kerry is apparently still climbing (now at 26%), I don't think that Dean missing the 15% limit is completely out of the realm of possibility.

Extraordinarily unlikely, yes, but not impossible.

The DMR poll has Dean in third, at 20%. If Edwards and Kerry were to siphon off 6% of Dean's support between them, Dean's down to 14%.

Were that very unlikely event to occur, all hell breaks loose.

Opinions?

Full disclosure: I'm a Clark supporter who lives less than 20 miles from Iowa. It's caucus commercial time, all the time, on TV!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

1. That 15% thing is only within each caucus

so you don't actually need 15% overall to get delegates.

[boxster]

5. True. Forgot about that.

[Dookus]

2. I agree entirely

a) it's extremely unlikely (I'd venture near-impossible) and
b) if it happens, all hell breaks loose.

[arewethereyet]

3. lets not get carried away

Dean may be on the decline but he's not roadkil.

[boxster]

6. No, I agree.

I acknowledged that this was far-fetched in my original posting. I would think that his base has to be very close to his current polling numbers - 20%. I don't see him dropping much below that, and I think it's more likely that he'll do better than expected.

[Demeter]

4. Then the World Ends (NOT)

Please don't worry about the things you have no control over; you'll get ulcers.

It will be all right.

[boxster]

7. I'm not worried. I'm a Clark supporter!

"Hopeful" might be a better description than "worried" is. :)

A potential third-place finish for Dean in Iowa was almost unfathomable a month or two ago, though I expect him to do better than the polls are indicating.

}(

[patricia92243]

8. Dean will finish first, therefore finishing off Gep. Success breeds

success and the other states will be easier to win from here on out.