ARG New Hampshire Tracking: Dean 28%, Clark 20%, Kerry 19%

[Karmadillo]

This one uses results from the 15th through the 17th. Kerry picked up 1%, Dean held steady, and Clark dropped 2%.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[chimpymustgo]

1. Edwards up 5 for the week. Coming out of nowhere again...

So if you thought this past week was fun, get ready for round 2. This one could go the distance.

[Maddy McCall]

16. Edwards is the one EVERYONE should be concerned about

He is rising in ALL polls. I'd be glad to vote for him, though, so it doesn't concern me. :-)

[izzie]

2. I finally saw two signs up in NH. Kerry and Dean

First I have seen which is odd, and they were large. One in a yard and one just beside road.I go to NH two times a week any how.

[zanana]

3. There are signs all over the place here.

I'm in Manchester, and there are alot of Dean and Kerry signs. (But I'd say Kerry signs take the lead). A few days ago, in the -15 degree weather, a bunch of Dean volunteers were standing outside at an intersection for a few hours. (I don't know if they were crazy or just young.) The phone calls are endless. It's usually pretty active here right before the primary, but with nine (eight) candidates, it's a little nuts right now.

[jab105]

17. I was in NH over Christmas...

saw 5 Dean signs and one Kerry sign...

[IADEMO2004]

4. caucus results are counted in Florida

The 800 # for reporting caucus results is Florida company. I was told this at caucus training by the instructor.

[Foswia]

5. MOE people!

This poll is still w/in MOE, what are you talking about "Kerry picked up one" no, its all MOE!

[Karmadillo]

8. Thanks, but we know that.

If you look at yesterday's results, Kerry had 18%. Today he has 19%. That's what I meant by "Kerry picked up one". I think all DUers, somewhat obsessive regarding these sorts of things as evidenced by our attendance at this board, are well aware of the significance of the data in light of the margin of error.


On Edit: Removed rude comment and went to eat breakfast.

[slinkerwink]

6. yay for Dean remaining steady and for Clark dropping two points!

:bounce:

[bearfartinthewoods]

7. slinkerwink i must give you credit

any candidacy would be blessed with such irrepressable support even in the face of discouraging news :toast:

[WI_DEM]

9. Kerry is making a comeback at Clark's expense

For the third day, Dean holds steady while Clark declines and Kerry is now within striking distance of second. If Dean pulls out a win in Iowa it should reassure his supporters and a strong showing by Kerry will also give him momentum--I think Kerry is going to pass Clark soon and it will be a close race for first in NH between Dean and Kerry just like it was initially forcast to be months ago.

[NashVegas]

10. Agreed

The anti-Dean must be someone who has an essentially different message from Dean, and I don't think Clark, for all the Clinton support, is that person.

I think in the end it will come down to Dean vs Kerry. I could live with a President Kerry, I just don't think he has what it takes to go against Bush/Rove.

[Cuban_Liberal]

12. Clark has peaked.

I predict Clark will tie Edwards for 3rd in NH.

[jenk]

11. Kerry and Clark continue to amaze

Especially Kerry who was dead and buried in NH, just incredible.

[mikehiggins]

13. What have we been saying all along?

Coming in third in New Hampshire was the flight plan from the beginning. There is hype, and there is reality. Clark was hyped to high heaven when he first announced because he was the newest "flavor of the week". The media was pretty tired of the other eight and Wes was someone new and interesting to write about. That died pretty quick and his ratings plummeted. Then we went through a period when the newsmedia quite literally ignored him.

I'd like a dime for every time a pundit or newsreader discussed all of the candidates in the race but somehow managed to forget how to pronounce Clark's name. Actually, if I did get a dime for each time that happened, I'd donate the money to Clark's campaign.

So now the campaign rolls into New Hampshire and plugs away while the others have to split their attention with Iowa. For at least a week, Clark was pretty much on his own there and his ratings took off as a result. Now the other candidates are back in the headlines, even in New Hampshire, and all over the air and they are beginning to reclaim some of the support that had eroded away during their absence.

Major surprise! Not. The Clark campaign would love to score higher than third, and we'll be really unhappy if we score fourth (not slit our wrists unhappy, but unhappy none the less) but that is pretty much what we've been talking about all along.

If Kerry wins in Iowa he becomes the frontrunner and Dean has to concentrate all his ire on him. We can live with that.

This is a political campaign, not a tea party. The Clark campaign is like the Viet Cong in this conflict. It isn't going away, no matter how much you hammer it. Eventually, one way or another, whatever it takes, Clark will win.

Wait and see.

[Nashyra]

14. Well this Clark supporter

my Korean War vet father, my son and his roomate from college are leaving on Fri.a.m. from Reno NV to go to NH to worl non stop at whatever the campaign needs us to do to get the vote out for Clark. Hats off to all DUer's working for whoever their candidate is.

[adadem]

15. I'll be curious

to see the next ARG poll for NH since the Concord Monitor endorsed Kerry. Sometimes these endorsements help sometimes they don't.