Why Media Calling "Statistical Dead Heat" When Kerry/Dean Beyond MOE

[Sensitivity]

It seems that last fews days the Media mantra is "Statistical Dead Heat." But in the Zogby Poll, both Kerry and Dean are outside the MOE ahead to Edwards. And in the Register poll Kerry is way beyond MOE of Gephart.

Why don't they just say that Caucus does not reflect the popular opinion so we just cant' predict the Iowa Caucus. Rather that
constantly repeat the phony mantra "Statistical Dean Heat."

Is there some mysterious agenda here?

[SadEagle]

1. Two likely reasons:

(1) The DeMoines Register and ARG polls look a bit different.
(2) Caucuses are impossible to poll accurately, anyway

[cthrumatrix]

9. the media wants a long, close campaign -- hence the Dean bash a thon

it's in their self interest to keep it close and "tip it" as they need to for shrub --- it's so obvious. They would bash any candidate as opposed to pointing out the failures of shrub

[HereSince1628]

2. two things...it makes for a better viewership of the newscast

and the media avoids "getting it wrong."

In both cases its decisions concerning the media's interest.

I could be wrong this time, but when one asks "why did the media do that?" I think the analysis has to always consider how it is good for the media.

[asjr]

4. Bless you

In just a few words you have managed to wrap it up. It is always what is in the best interests of the media. It is only what is good for them. I have stopped watching the Sunday talk shows. I become too angry when someone like Tim Russert asks questions that agitate me and makes no sense. They ask a candidate questions in such a way as to make the candidate look deceptive and can have an adverse effect on what people think about the person.

[spooky3]

3. Because the Media are technically correct in what they're saying.

You have to subtract the margin of error from Kerry and Dean AND add it to Edwards, because for each candidate, his actual approval is likely to be within + or - the MOE from his own sampled %.

At the same time, if Edwards is at 18% (in the poll sample) and Kerry is at 24% in the sample and the MOE is 4%, then Edwards could really be approved by no more than 14% in the actual population, and Kerry could be as high as 28% (actually, it could be even greater, since the MOE is not predicting with 100% accuracy).

The odds are that the reported number is closer to accurate than the extremes, of course.

But that's why a big margin of error is troubling.

Don't forget also that many polls have 10% response rates, and that the people who DO respond are not a random sample, in other words, it's not just every 10th person who responds. It could be that only those who are more likely to have a household where someone is at home when the pollster calls, will be included. Their opinions may not match the opinions of those who aren't at home or who refuse to participate.

[Democrats unite]

5. God I love how people can spin...

these polls one day when thay favor their candidate, then try to rip them apart when they don't favor theisr candidate.

[creativelcro]

6. As I said in another thread: it's the Survivor script applied to primaries

Phase 1: edit the thing so that it looks like there is one person moving ahead. Phase 2: when the viewer is now expecting a victory by the front runner, edit to make it look like the others are catching up, creating more suspense. What is true ? Who knows ? So many factors. Would not be surprised is Zogby were totally wrong.

[rainy]

7. should we be worried about the voting machines in Iowa"

I am concerned that some of these candidates are acceptable to the ones in control and they may manipulate the vote to allow one of the acceptable ones to win so that they can still have their PNAC no matter who wins in 2004. Clark and Kerry make me afraid of this theory. I think those two will definitely bow to corporate influence.

[WiseMen]

8. I am more puzzled by the "Edwards, Edwards" chant when Kerry is leading.

I would love to hear the conversations in the top echelons of
the media empires. Despite Kerrys amazing campaign effort he is nowhere on the mag covers etc. Very interesting. Wonder if this
continue even if he wins Iowa.