Lets pretend the caucus results folow the curent polls

[Egnever]

If that scenario pans out under the rules of the caucus we end up with Iowa meaning almost exactly nothing no? They all fall in with close to equal support so Iowas delegates end up being split evenly between the four no? Wich in the end means that Iowa cancels itself out.

I am not entirely sure how the caucuses work but my understanding is that anyone with over 15% gets that amount of representation come the convewntion, Is this correct? and if so then does Iowa really mean nothing?

[Clark4Prez]

1. Think of it as opening day

There has been much discussion about the importance of Iowa in the national race. Some winners in Iowa have gone on to win the White House, while others have had massive flame outs.

I think that Iowa is like opening day in football (or your sport of choice), how a team performs will be analyzed, pontificated on, and the "so what do you think this means" question will be asked over and over.

In short, Iowa means nothing if the winner of it goes on to lose, however, if he goes on to win, you will hear refrains of "the Iowa momentum never slowed". Because in politics, like sports, armchair quarterbacks have 2020 hindsight.

[Egnever]

2. I get that

I am not asking if Ioiwa decides the nod for us.

What I am asking is. According to my understanding of caucuses it is not a winner take all scenario. Unless the winner takes it by a very large margin. As it stands now according to the polls we have basically a four way tie. So....

Other than the impact it has on the remainder of the field that is not one of the four, what hapens with Iowas delegates come convention time. I am under the impression that they will be evenly split between the four. This would seem to imply that Iowa would have little effect whatsoever in deciding the race other than for the rest of the field that is not one of those four.

[drthais]

3. Iowa delegates etc.......

I believe what a four-way tie says at this time
is that voters in Iowa (and probably elsewhere)
are holding their ground, looking carefully at all of the candidates
and not letting the media decide anything for them.

we may wind up with a four-way tie in Iowa
then a five-way tie in New Hampshire
and the front-loading of the primaries will not, then,
result in an early clear nominee. very interesting.

I would like to think that Democratic voters
are showing clearly that they understand
how incredibly important this choice is going to be
we all know that the prize is to take down Bush
and that the choice of who is most capable of doing that
is truly critical.

The media would love a Dem Convention showdown
if this keeps up, they may get it

Thais Perkins
Zachary, La.

[hellhathnofury]

9. Welcome to DU!

Thais Perkins of Zachary, La.

Your town stole my first name, may I have it back?

[Clark4Prez]

4. In that case, you'd be right

Under a four way tie, the delegates would wash out each other. Actually all of the primaries will work this way, as I understand it as long as you pull 15% or greater you will get a share of the delegates.

This is part of the reason for the "brokered convention" talk. Although, I doubt there will be a brokered convention. We have gone from 10 candidates to 8 before the first vote was cast. Next week we will no doubt see at least one more drop off. Then in Feb we will have two or more that will fall. Moving it to a two or three man race.

So, after all is said and done, Iowa, doesn't mean squat.

[Egnever]

5. That is my understanding also

I am not clear on if the primaries also work this way but as far as Iowa go you have confirmed exactly what I was thinking.

Thanks

If nothing else this will be quite a show all the way through.

[Redneck Socialist]

6. It will mean quite a bit.

Dean will look vulnerable, encouraging the rest of the pack to keep piling on. Kerry will be the "winner," the "come back kid" if you will. Pretty impressive for a candidate that had been all but written off not so long ago. Gep will get a bounce as will Edwards.

Kerry, Edwards and Gep will gain momentum and Dean will need some big wins to reestablish himself as the front runner.

The primaries are just beginning and we have a long way to go. You are right in that in terms of delegates Iowa won't be to meaningful but the perceived results of the contest will be very important for the upcoming races.

[arewethereyet]

7. it serves to demonstrate a candidate's general appeal and direction

Edwards' appeal is apparantly great and direction it strongly up,
Kerry similar but the direction not as strong,
Gephardt, appeal not what it was supposed to be direction down,
Dean appeal faltered, direction way down.

But no one has caucussed yet. While the fat lady is warming up, it has yet to begin.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

8. Yeah, keep thinking that.

Ignore all the news reports that tell about the growing excitement and momentum around the Edwards and Kerry campaigns. Pay no attention to Kerry's rise in the NH polls based on the Iowa buzz. Because you're right -- it's meaningless. Who knows, maybe it's not even happening. Maybe it's a plot from Karl Rove.