Edwards could attract second-choice caucus vote

[jenk]

Edwards could attract second-choice caucus vote
By Charlie Savage, Globe Staff, 1/18/2004


DES MOINES -- Inside the Iowa caucuses tomorrow night, John Edwards may end up attracting a disproportionate share of those voters who are forced to pick a second choice under the quirky election rules, political specialists and likely caucusgoers said.

"We are definitely in a good position to capitalize on people's second choice," said Aaron Pickrell, Iowa political director for the Edwards campaign. "Everybody likes John Edwards. . . . If their candidate is not viable, I could see a lot of those people gravitating towards our way."

Under caucus rules, voters in each precinct first stand in a group for their candidate of choice. But any candidate who does not reach 15 percent in a given precinct is deemed "not viable," and his supporters will then pick another.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/01/18/edwards_could_attract_second_choice_caucus_vote/

[Cuban_Liberal]

1. I agree.

:)

[DjTj]

2. I think Kerry leads second-choice voters...

...but I bet he is the second choice of almost all the Edwards voters.

I can see Edwards having the second choice votes from almost all the other candidates and so the best chance of capitlizing from it.

[jburton]

3. Sounds about right

Edwards seems to be pretty well respected all around.

He is my 2nd choice, for what it's worth.

[Mz Pip]

4. Edwards is my second choice, too

I saw him on Face the Nation this morning and liked what I heard. He stays positive and that counts a lot for me.

MzPip
:dem:

[Blue_Roses]

7. I saw him too

and I'm really liking him. He has a good grasp on the issues. He is direct and seems to know how to control the topic.

He is really looking good these days--very Presidential

[leyton]

5. I wonder though

the candidates most likely to fail to reach the 15% mark are Kucinich, Sharpton, and Lieberman. I predict Kucinich voters would gravitate towards Dean. Sharpton and Lieberman might go for Edwards though.

[windansea]

6. Kerry leads in 2nd choicers and undecideds

From the same list, who would be your second choice?

Kerry 25%
Dean 17%
Edwards 18%
Gephardt 14%

If you had to choose today, which candidate are you leaning toward? (Asked only of those who responded "Not sure" to the first question.)

Kerry 17%
Edwards 15%
Gephardt 10%
Clark 4%
Dean 3%

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3936832

[leyton]

8. Of those, how many will have to go to their second choice?

It doesn't matter who your second choice is if your first choice is Edwards, Kerry, Dean, maybe Gephardt.

It matters if your first choice is Kucinich, Sharpton, Lieberman, or Clark. (Are people allowed to try and caucus for Lieberman or Clark?) They're the least likely to get 15%...

[windansea]

9. it matters for about 16%

currently undecided or for candidates out of top 4

it's also possible that only 3 candidates will surpass 15%