Investors Point to Iowa Winner (Dean)

[Khephra]

Some tracking polls show the presidential contest in Iowa as too close to call, but the invisible hand of the market is pointing to the favorite.

Howard Dean is the choice of two political futures markets, where thousands of speculators, unlike journalists, put their money where their punditry is. They buy and sell contracts that pay off if a candidate wins.

At press time on Saturday, Dr. Dean's stock in the Iowa caucuses market at Intrade.com was listed at 45, meaning that investors gave him a 45 percent chance to win the caucuses tomorrow. Next was Representative Richard A. Gephardt at 25 percent, followed by Senator John Kerry at 20 and Senator John Edwards at 8. .

Dr. Dean also remained the favorite to be the eventual nominee on another exchange, the Iowa Electronic Markets. Traders yesterday gave him a 51 percent chance to win, putting him well ahead of Gen. Wesley K. Clark (21 percent) and Mr. Kerry (13 percent). This exchange has been run since 1988 by the University of Iowa's business school, which says its futures market has usually been more accurate than public opinion polls at predicting election results.

more............

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/18/politics/campaigns/18POIN.html

[aquart]

1. This market is an incentive to election fraud.

It needs to be outlawed NOW.

[Cuban_Liberal]

2. How is it an incentive to electoral fraud?

I fail to see a nexus.

[Davis_X_Machina]

3. How so?

Individual investor capitalization on the IEM is capped at $500.

There's no incentive to spend millions to influence the election in order to win a pittance on the IEM.

[AP]

5. I wonder if any NYT or NPR reporters are playing?

[Padraig18]

6. If so, they're probably betting against Dean.

The latest article on Gov. Dean's NYT 'press' is terribly revealing.

[Tesha]

7. You're referring to this article?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=133419

[Padraig18]

8. I am, indeed.

:)

[Tesha]

4. Kick... (NT)

[creativelcro]

9. Intrade.com has BUSH reelection at 70% as well....

[creativelcro]

10. Here is the latest from Intrade.com

Iowa Caucus Democratic
DEM.DEAN.IA
Howard Dean to win Iowa Caucus 42.0 44.0 41.0 3461 -2.0
DEM.KERRY.IA
John Kerry to win Iowa Caucus 35.5 35.9 35.9 2503 +0.9
DEM.GEPHARDT.IA
Richard Gephardt to win Iowa Caucus 10.2 15.0 15.0 2311 +5.0
DEM.EDWARDS.IA
John Edwards to win Iowa Caucus 7.0 11.0 12.0 1992 +2.0
DEM.LIEBERMAN.IA
Joe Lieberman to win Iowa Caucus - 1.0 0.5 24 0
DEM.CLINTON.IA
Hillary Clinton to win Iowa Caucus - 0.9 0.5 0 0
DEM.FIELD.IA
Field(one of all other candidates) to win Iowa Caucus - 1.0 0.5 513 0

[creativelcro]

12. Yeah! Good last minute bidding!!

If Dean goes under 35 I'm buying a ton more shares!... Thank you Kerry supporters :)


US Primary Elections > Iowa Caucus Democratic
DEM.DEAN.IA 60 38.0 39.0 100 40.0 3484 -3.0
DEM.KERRY.IA 92 38.0 39.5 1 38.0 2714 +3.0
DEM.GEPHARDT.IA 3 10.2 15.0 100 11.0 2359 +1.0
DEM.EDWARDS.IA 26 8.1 12.9 1 11.0 2147 +1.0
DEM.LIEBERMAN.IA 0 - 1.0 112 0.5 24 0
DEM.CLINTON.IA 0 - 0.9 2 0.5 0 0
DEM.FIELD.IA 0 - 1.0 102 0.5 513 0

[creativelcro]

13. Whoo Ho! Thank you kerry supporters!

Dean is under 34, I just bought another bunch of shares very cheap!...

[creativelcro]

11. And...

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2004
DEM.2004.DEAN
Howard Dean to be 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee 48.0 50.0 50.0 74423 0
DEM.2004.KERRY
John Kerry to be 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee 16.0 19.4 19.4 61208 +1.4
DEM.2004.EDWARDS
John Edwards to be 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee 7.1 9.0 8.2 34954 +1.2
DEM.2004.GEPHARDT
Richard Gephardt to be 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee 2.6 3.0 3.0 60453 +0.5
DEM.2004.H.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to be 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee 3.0 4.0 3.0 59668 0
DEM.2004.LIEBERMAN
Joe Lieberman to be 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee 0.6 1.8 1.0 40681 0
DEM.2004.FIELD
Field(W Clark & other non listed candidates) to be 2004 Dem Nominee 19.5 23.1 22.5 36045 0