Now that we see the present, did Dean peak too soon?

[ShaneGR]

That was the big thing about six months ago, that he was peaking too soon.

In hindsight, that looks to be correct.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. Your question will be partially answered......tomorrow.

[Cuban_Liberal]

2. Hard to say.

I don't think he has, I just think some candidates hadn't hit their strides yet, e.g., Edwards and Kerry. Despite the hoopla surrounding Iowa and NH, I don't see Dr. Dean as anything other than a formidable candidate at this point. The man has mega-moolah and an organization that is the envy of every other candidate.

Let's see how it plays out into March.

[ChrisNYC]

3. Ask me next week

If Dean wins Iowa and NH, all the stories will once again be "Can anyone stop Dean." At this point it's just time to sit back and see what happens...

[calimary]

17. We'll know a lot more after New Hampshire.

Iowa will be an early clue, but New Hampshire will really tell it. It will be the old "what have you done for me lately" thing. If Dean does well in New Hampshire, the momentum will likely be his again. Just guessing, of course... But the Iowa dynamic will shape and strongly reshuffle things for New Hampshire, and people will look at and size up the candidates through that filter.

[Hawkeye-X]

4. Based on inside information

I would say that Dean just started his process for nomination as he is leading in the superdelegate count and he will be victorious tomorrow wth a unexpected high turnout which knocks away the polls that says *Some other candidate* leads by 2%

Hawkeye-X

[arewethereyet]

7. super delegate question

are their votes in the convention already cast ?

That is to say, are any endorsements cast in stone as votes at the ocnvention ?

I honestly don't know.

[windansea]

10. no

superdelegates notoriously fickle

[arewethereyet]

13. question answered (I got curious)

"Unpledged delegates -- these superdelegates -- are free to vote for the candidate of their choosing and can change their minds and public positions on whom they support as often as they wish before the summer."

I guess its not a good idea to attribute too much to these numbers.

from
http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/DailyNews/superdelegates.html

[arewethereyet]

5. it is difficult to carry momentum for long periods

It was a risk that Trippi took to get his unknown candidate on the map.

The polls suggest he peaked about 2 months early but that likely got adjusted with Clark's entering the race. But maybe not.

We can conjecture but we'll know tomorrow night sometime for sure.

[Eloriel]

21. Well, there are different types of momentum

And IMO the one you're referring to is the media momentum, which is very, very difficult to control since they pretty much do what their handlers want them to do.

As an example: I have the TV on one or another cable news show all the while I'm also on the computer. The reports out of IA are really enthusiastic about the surge in support for Edwards and Kerry -- how unexpectedly big the crowds are, etc. And then they have to

But then I go and read some of the accounts from people actually on the ground in IA, and while that doesn't contradict the reports about crowds, the picture on the ground is very different from what the pundits suggest.

So -- where is the momentum? Different kinds of momentum, different ways to gauge it.

[arewethereyet]

25. I hear your point but the masses have only the media to rely on

we all know that the press can lie, people can lie, polls can lie.

votes (or caucuses as the case might be) don't lie.

We'll know the truth of it soon enough.

Even the media can't lie about that.

[ecstatic]

6. This is not about peaking too soon, its about a deliberate media attack

on the candidate who threatened them the most. His fall was orchestrated by the media who was quick to cover all the smears coming from Republicans, and many Democrats.

[arewethereyet]

8. thats WHY its difficult to carry momentum

ebb and flow makes news, news sells papers (or TV ads).

But the press also loves lovable dark horses (Carter, Clinton, Edwards).

If you don't care for smears, have your candidate stop leaving himself open to them.

[calimary]

18. Man, I like the looks of that photo panel you've got there.

My first thought was - ANY of those would be poised to go on to the presidency from such a staffing arrangement.

Again, however you shuffle it, we do have BENCH STRENGTH!

On edit - you left Kerry out. Maybe Secretary of State in a lineup like this one? OR, maybe, Kerry as National Security Advisor and Kucinich as Secretary of State. Now that I think of that, I like it even more, since Dennis is the "Department of Peace" guy. That would be a mighty nice face to put on our diplomacy for a change, in contrast to the crap and the unilateral warmongering that they're replacing.

[Toucano]

9. It's a rollercoaster ride.

There will be ups and downs as the process goes along.

I actually think it works well for Dean. Nothing energizes his supporters like the challenge of being the underdog, the "outsider" if you will.

[hellhathnofury]

11. Peaking all the way to the Whitehouse, I dare say.

[Kahuna]

12. Iowa media coverage this weekend.. muted media clips show...

Kerry and Edwards communicating in a calm manner. And, Dean and Gep communicating in an angry manner. The suggestion is that Kerry and Edwards are surging because they have a positive message while Dean and Gep are falling back because they have a negative message.

[aquart]

14. This race is so not over.

[wryter2000]

15. You bet

He's peaked too soon three or four times now.

[janx]

16. And he will continue to do so.

B-)

[bowens43]

19. Peak?

Dean hasn't peaked. He'll peak in November.

[mzmolly]

20. Dean is running a 50 State campaign

Sooo the answer is NOPE :hi:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Not sure what your seeing, but I see a man who is competing all around the US.

[creativelcro]

22. The "peak" metaphor is wrong.

a rollecoaster metaphor is more appropriate. Who said that there is ONE peak and after that is downhill ? That is not a good model for how these things go. Like trying to fit a line to a circle. Wrong model.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

23. There's no way he could have kept up that momentum. He had to fall.

n/t

[candy331]

24. When looking at who put his numbers up

you see the same ones who took his numbers down. Seems like the corporate media controlled the whole made for the media show.

[beaconess]

27. Yes, some of the people who were for Dean before are stupid sheep

who cannot make up their own minds since, we all know, the only possible way that anyone can change their minds after taking a second look at Dean are people who are too ignorant and gullible to resist being controlled by the corporate media.

[mandyky]

26. I don't think Dean has peaked YET

This Iowa thing shows more about the stop Dean movement than Dean's peak or lack thereof. And I think Dean will still win the caucus in Iowa, it will just be a lot closer.