Uncertain victories.....Colorado is not decided

[AnIndependentTexan]

I saw this on another forum is something up with Colorado ?

[Awsi Dooger]

1. It would have to be the senate race

Salazar was up by 40,000 when I looked early this morning

[high density]

2. There are pretty good leads for Bush, Salazar w/95% reporting

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/CO/

[Heath.Hunnicutt]

3. Notice that Boulder County is only 33% reported???

If you multiply the spread in that county by 2 (for the missing 2/3 of the precincts, this is a poor man's extrapolation), you get +80k for Kerry...

[AliceWonderland]

4. They's still counting the paper ballots in Boulder County

Is this what this refers to, perhaps? Boulder Country uses old school paper ballots and they take an age to count. According to the country clerk, we have 75 of 230 precincts completed thus far. We will swing heavily to Kerry, because, well, we're Boulder.

Unless this refers to something else entirely.

ETA: The county clerk link.

[leftofthedial]

5. according to Boulder County's election website

with 75 of 230 precincts reporting, Kerry has a 39,000 vote lead. I have no idea WHICH precincts.

I'm way too tired to do the math, but I think that means that if the outstanding precincts follow the pattern, Kerry could end up with nearly an additional 90,000 vote gain against Bush, which would mean he'd be in the ballpark of closing the race. I don't know if it would mean he could win CO. He is now about 100,000 votes behind.

Of course, I could be hallucinating.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. I think it's something like 180,000

Too much of a headache to look it up. From memory 12 hours ago, something like 1,170,000 votes to 890,000.

Well, that may close the gap significantly, and the 9 point deficit somewhat.

on edit: I looked it up. CNN lists the gap as 119,000. I'll leave the header alone. What's 61,000 when the world was changed for generations via a mere 537?

[Sufi Marmot]

7. It depends on how many voters in Boulder County...

I was trying to figure out how many voters were in Boulder County and what % the (then) 19% of the counted precincts they represented. See my thread in the Presidential thread - I'm not sure that the number of votes that are already in extrapolate to the rest of the uncounted precincts. The remaining precincts may only have a few voters compared with urban Boulder - on the website I found it seemed like there were only ~176K registered voters, and according to my atlas Boulder County only has ~291K total residents, so this isn't enough to close the gap I think. Makes it closer, though, and hopefully bodes well for making Colorado blue in years to come as part of the "Western Strategy".

-SM, into the wine this evening so hopefully this is coherent...

[pabloseb]

8. Wow... Kerry will likely win CO!

Extrapolating the current results in Boulder, Kerry would pick up a difference of 116,000 votes. That's slightly more than Bush lead. So there's a real chance.

[briankup]

9. wouldn't kerry still lose even if he got CO

?

[pabloseb]

10. He would need to win NM and IA

Both states are reported as not yet decided. Bush* has a very small lead in both and almost all precints are reporting (100% in IA), but I don't know if there are absentee, provisional or other type of ballots yet to be counted.