Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Dean on Iowa knife edge

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
deminflorida Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 04:56 PM
Original message
Dean on Iowa knife edge
"‘It’s not enough to win, you have to do better than expected’"

"Indeed, some observers believe a Dean loss could even deal a near-fatal blow to his candidacy, endangering his chances in New Hampshire, where his lead, although strong, has been shrinking in the face of a surge by retired Nato general Wesley Clark. Clark’s decision to pull out of Iowa to concentrate on New Hampshire appears to be paying off, with the polls suggesting a tight race with Dean is in the offing."

"If Dean loses, Dean plummets," said John Zogby, the independent analyst who is producing a daily tracking poll in Iowa. "If Dean loses, there’s going to be two people who’ve defied expectations... and whoever the two guys are will really suck up the oxygen and dominate New Hampshire - so now you’ve got a three-way race."

http://news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=62732004
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 04:57 PM
Response to Original message
1. Independent analist my ass
Zogby is a Republican and well known as being one.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Democrats unite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Then why has his polls been touted here for the past...
two months. Would you like to take a guess at who'e been touting them until recently?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Zogby is a Democrat (nt)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Cuban_Liberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
2. An overly-dramatic analysis.
Edited on Sun Jan-18-04 05:21 PM by Cuban_Liberal
That strikes me as a real Doomsday scenario. Realistically, Dr. Dean has a huge campaign war chest, and enormous volunteer base and campaign infrastructure in all 50 states. I don't think Iowa will hurt him much, and I don't see him doing anything but winning in NH, and probably decisively so, since a loss in Iowa will energize his base almost as much as a win.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
creativelcro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
3. Oh, if Zogby says so then it must be true...
I'm wondering how much money he would be willing to bet, given the certainty he seems to have about his own statements. Anybody can BS. Wonder why many intelligent people here are even listening to these polls... Guess many people with plenty of time...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:44 PM
Response to Reply #3
17. When Zogby
Was calling Dean the unstoppable frontrunner,30 points ahead of everyone he was being touted as being the most accurate pollster analyzing polls.

The facts are that like buying a house or a car, when choosing a to nominate a politician to run from one party or the other, the buyer starts looking very close at the product they are being sold.

As each caucus or primary becomes imminent, the local media in each state is going to start comparing each candidates campaign talk, to their actual performance while in office, and in Deans case, there is simply the greatest disconnect between his rather conservative performance as Governor, and his rather progressive campaign talk.

Dean's record as Governor was one of always spouting the democratic party line. As long as there was no real issue or pending legislation at hand, but for the most part siding with conservatives and republicans when something real was going down.

Examples, the Snelling progressive income tax, which was voted for and set in motion prior to Snellings death and Dean becoming Governor,
was responsible for eliminating the 65 million dollar deficit that the state of Vermont was facgin when Dena came into office. It was also regarded as the first and best attempt to create a fair, progressive income tax system anywhere in the United States since the inception og income taxes. Dean allwed the tax to be rolled back as it was scheduled, in opposition to the requests of the Democratic Party in Vermont, and almost immediately, budget problems began cropping up again, as soon as the tax was rolled back.

Then Dean resorted to sending budgets to the legislature to cut social programs such as medicaid, and the states prescription drug program. Almost every year Dean requeested large cuts to the budgets for these programs, opposing increases to income taxes to fund them, while at the same time raising the state sales tax back from the 4 percent it was rolled back to 5 percent. In order to avoid re-instituting the progressive income tax, Dean chose to raise virtually all of the state's other consumption taxes as well. Standard conservative eceonomic ideas, becasue they are flat taxes, and essentially are more of a burden to the poor and middle class than they are to the rich.

Dean was sued twice for his attempts to cut medicaid, and was found to have violated Vemront Law in his attempts on the two occassions that he tried to make these cuts, the courts stating that he had exceeeded his powers as Governor in making these cuts. Same thing happened when he tried cutting nearly a million dollars from the Defender Generals budget. Finally, after he continually vetoed or blcoked efforts to control pharmaceutical companies gouging the states VSCRIPT Program, the federal courts found that Deans alternative program using Medicaid waivers violated federal laws and this program had to be suspended for six months while the Democrats Vermont Legislature came up with an alternative solution to keep the program alive. In essence Dean spent most of his tenure as Governor trying to eliminate the health programs he now claims as his, and which should make him the best candidate regarding health care.

Forgetting thefact that Dean is the candidate who started running on the issue of immediately providing health care that "cannot be taken away from you", and after all the other cnadidates came up with plans, Dean began stating that now he would not provide this health care immediately, but wait until the budget was balanced to do so. Many people who supported Dean and even his repeal of all of the Bush tax cuts have begun to rethink their support of Dean, as he is now the candidate who is going to repeal the Bush tax cuts, giving thme absolutely nothing in return for the increased taxes they will face when he repeals the middle class portion of the cuts along with the cuts to the wealthiest two percent.

Dean claims that the middle class did not get a tax cut, but most people are asking, if this is so, thent why repeal the middle class tax cuts at all, since they do not exist?

The real issue is not that the media and the DLC are going after Dean,that there is some plot, but the fact that when examined close up, Deans ideas do not seem to have any substance, and his frequent changes in position make him seem even less trustworthy, and very much the "career politician" who will say anything to get elected, and revert to supporting the special interests who have backed him for years.

As I have often said, Deans large lead will shrink as soon as proplr get the opportunity to compare what Dean has done and said in the past, and how what he has said in the past more closely matches what he has done in the past, which was to greatly favor the issues that were important to the pharmaceutical, health, and other large industries who were the largest financers of his campaigns for Governor, every time he ran for Governor, and the fact that he blatently did virtually anything that these large corporation did when they demanded it.

His reversal on legislation requiring the labeling of dairly products that came from animals given various growth hormones at the last minute after a private meeting with Monsanto, the producers of the hormone, after he had supported the legislation is one case. His vetoing of pharmaceutical legislation that a large pharmaceutical company wanted killed after giving Dean a relatively large camapgin contribution three days before his veto is another. The sudden switch in the sale of Vermont Yankee to Entergy/Koch Industries, after receiving large campaign contributions from energy executives who stood to make eight times the amount of money from the sale of their shares than they would if the original company was given the sale is another.

Voters arent that stupid, there need be no secret plot against Dean. His own record and behavior, under closer scrutiny is more than enough to give Democrats making decisions pause.

Caveat Emptor is the real reason for the slowing of Deans momentum, and the fact that on the whole the public favors one Washington insider or other over Dean who tries to presenr himself as an outsider, but is as much a career politician, beholden to special interests as any other candidate for the party nomination.

If you add up the numbers and support for all of the Washington insiders, the support for Washington career democrats on the whole far exceeds the support for Deans claim to "reclaiming the democratic party".


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Paragon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:01 PM
Response to Original message
6. *yawn*
Anyone in the Clark camp feel like running a positive campaign?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Democrats unite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Yes please I would like to see one from the Dean campaign!
eom
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Paragon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. Who posted this spurious article?
Clark supporter. Busted.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
oxymoron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:13 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. Give me a break.
As an undecided I see just as much vitriol coming from the Dean camp. How disingenuous.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:05 PM
Response to Original message
7. Actually it looks like Wes Clark might be the real loser in NH
Dean's base is about 30% according to ARG polls. He has been at 28% for the past three days in the tracking polls. Meanwhile Wes has been on a slow decline which has been coinciding with Kerry's gains in NH. Kerry, I predict will come in either first or second in Iowa and that will give him momentum to overcome Wes Clark and the race will be back where it was in the beginning in NH--a hard fought contest between John Kerry and Howard Dean for victory in NH.

The only candidate who has been acknowledged must win Iowa is Dick Gephardt based on his '88 win and his years of attention to the state. I also think Dean is still well-positioned to win in Iowa given his GOTV efforts and organization especially in a close race that will be crucial.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
creativelcro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #7
12. Yup, regardless of polls, Kerry up means Clark down
They bot appeal to the same type of people (i.e., those who need some type of military man for leader).
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DancingBear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #7
14. Here's what we wanted in NH

Viability. Name recognition. People talking about the candicacy.

We got all three. In spades.

The Clark campaigns original goal was to finish third in NH. That looks like it will happen (we hope), at a minimum. We are now running second, with a strong challenge from Kerry. Our hopes are high for a second place finish, but if Kerry passes us and we stay close that is OK. We are now a viable force in the race, and we hold a nice little trump card in that the battle moves south from here.

Another bonus for us is the gaffe a day campaign that Dean is running. What he has now in NH is his base, and nothing more. Should he falter in Iowa, it will be interesting to see how much of it moves off him and to (perhaps) Edwards, or Kerry, or Clark.

All in all, we are right where we need to be, and second in NH will be a big ol' gift wrapped present. If Dean continues his performance in both the campaign and the debates, our favorite color wrapping paper is blue. :)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
heidler Donating Member (78 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:10 PM
Response to Original message
9. NH Poll Jan 15-17 Dean still holding steady at 28%. Clark slides to 20%.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #9
15. And Kerry up to 19%-the only candidate with 7straight days of rising polls
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
gulliver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:25 PM
Response to Original message
13. That's the way I read it.
Edited on Sun Jan-18-04 05:31 PM by gulliver
If Dean loses Iowa, I believe the wheels will fall off his campaign. It may already be a done deal looking at the trend and buzz.

We may really be looking at Clark/Kerry as previously posted on DU. I think Clark will win that outside Kerry's back yard.

The dark horse is Edwards, IMO. Saw him today on FTN. Struck me as too much of a politician. Kerry too.

The debate in NH on Jan. 22 is going to be a wingding.

On edit: And Edwards was my favorite before Clark got in. I like him. I'm just getting tired of the narrative. Poor country background, optimism and hope. He said each of those at least twice on FTN.

I like Clark because he thinks on his feet and comes up with brilliant original things to say.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Cuban_Liberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. $20 million is a lot of 'wheels' to fall off of a campaign.
Iowa is no big deal, if Dean loses.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
gulliver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-18-04 05:51 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Not sure money will help.
Dean is getting pigeon-holed big time. No amount of money can put the toothpaste back in the tube. He has to sell his electability vs. Bush. It will be a much harder sell after a loss in Iowa.

I think Dean could beat Bush, and I would both vote for Dean and send him money. But I don't think Dean is the sure thing I think Clark is. (I also think Clark would make a better president, although Dean would make a good one.)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Thu Apr 25th 2024, 02:09 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC